WaPo : Meet the Democrat who may take the next Democratic president hostage

[Celerity]

https://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/2019/10/31/meet-democrat-who-may-take-next-democratic-president-hostage/

The Democrats running for president, even those like Joe Biden and Pete Buttigieg who are being characterized as “moderates,” have some significant plans for legislation they’d like to pass if they become president. Doing so, however, would require their party to take back control of the Senate, where Republicans currently have a 53-to-47 majority. Such a victory won’t be easy, but it’s certainly possible, given that Republicans are defending more seats and have a number of vulnerable senators up for reelection. But if you’re a liberal, what you may not have thought about — because it may be too depressing to contemplate — is what happens if Democrats win control by a vote or two, and the fate of the entire progressive project lies in the hands of Sen. Joe Manchin III of West Virginia. We’ll get to the implications in a moment, but first, take a gander at this clip from an interview Manchin just gave to Fox News:

Link to tweet

This was in reference to an interview Bernie Sanders gave in which he was asked whether Manchin and other more conservative Democrats would vote for his agenda, and Sanders said, “Damn right they will.” Not only is Manchin making clear he wouldn’t, but in answer to the question of whom he’ll vote for in 2020 if Sanders is his party’s nominee, Manchin said, “It wouldn’t be Bernie.”

This may not be all that surprising, given that by most measures, Manchin is the most conservative Democrat in the Senate. In fact, he’s just about the only Democrat who could win statewide in West Virginia, which Donald Trump won in 2016 by 42 points. Nevertheless, the appropriate thing for even a Democrat from West Virginia to say is not “It wouldn’t be Bernie” but “It wouldn’t be Trump.” By the way, West Virginia is the poorest state in the country, so you could argue that Manchin’s constituents would benefit more than anyone else from Democratic agenda items such as universal health coverage, universal pre-K, enhanced workers’ rights and a higher minimum wage. How much is he really going to stand in the way of all that?

The answer is: probably quite a bit. Manchin’s entire political identity is built on being the guy who tells Democrats they’re being a bunch of dastardly libruls, and he has to pull the party to the right for its own good. Not only that, if he really holds the balance of power — if the Senate is 50-50, or if it’s 51-to-49 Democratic and he can join with another conservative Democrat (for instance, Sen. Kyrsten Sinema of Arizona, an unpredictable centrist who opposes getting rid of the filibuster), Manchin will have every incentive to throw sand in the gears of the party’s agenda.

That’s because if Manchin supports everything a President Sanders or a President Warren or a President Biden wants to do, he loses his power. He’d just be one vote out of 50 or so. If, on the other hand, he refuses to go along with health-care reform or whatever other bill is being debated, he immediately becomes the most powerful person in Congress. Democrats will have no choice but to give in and tailor their bills to Manchin’s liking if they don’t want the agenda to fail completely. And if he simply wants some part of that agenda to fail, he can make it happen.

snip

[no_hypocrisy]

1. Reminder: *Some* democrats are displaced republicans.

They were exiled from the Republican Party after Reagan but had nowhere to go except the Democratic Party.

They didn't embrace the Great Society or the New Deal. But they were now democrats. And they continued to vote as republicans. And still do.

Some see them as Independents. Some see them as responsive to their district's constituents. Some see them as traitors to the Party.

And they're not going anywhere for the timebeing.

[Blue_true]

3. Manchin is an acute politician. He says what keeps him in office.

But, unfortunately, he is the best that we can now do in that state. Maybe in the future we will get another Rockefella from West Virginia, or even a late in life Robert Byrd, but for now it's a Manchin.

[NoMoreRepugs]

2. Himself, not Party, before Country.... so not a Rethug, not a Democrat,

I'd call him a Deplorable.

[Blue_true]

5. I don't know his voting record exactly, but I read that he votes with Dems on most issues.

Except in cases of judges and other federal offices. I am not sure that he will change parties like the Governor (a repugh to a democrat and back to repugh), but it would not surprise me.

[pnwmom]

10. He votes with the Dems most of the time -- far more than the most "moderate" R's.

Despite representing the state that gave DT the biggest margin in the US

[evertonfc]

4. jesus

We are lucky to have him from WV.

[Blue_true]

6. Exactly. At this time in that state, he is the best we can do. nt

[Celerity]

7. Hope you say the same if his support and campaigning for Susan Collins is successful and blocks us

from Senate control by just her seat. Or he switches parties if Warren (far more likely he would switch if she won) or Biden wins and he can give the Rethugs majority control so they can block all our agendas. Or Rump wins reelection and Manchin is the deciding vote that puts in 2 or even 3 more RWers onto the SCOTUS (as he votes for Rump's picks already.)

Hopefully we take control by at least a 52-48 spread so Manchin and Sinema are neutralised. If it is 50-50 or 51-49, Biden's Public option will be DOA. Hell it probably will be if we have a 55-45 majority. Look at what happened in 2009. Blocked when we had 60 seats ( September 24, 2009 through February 4, 2010.)

https://edition.cnn.com/2009/POLITICS/09/29/senate.public.option/

[evertonfc]

8. what are our options in WV

I would rather have a conservative Democrat than a radical Trump cultist. I mean, you do realize it's WV... lol, come on

[Celerity]

9. It used to be strongly Democratic, hopefully we can get rid of Rump and de-programme them.

Manchin offers little of constructive, balance-tipping import on the biggest issues. He has never been the swing vote or the swing member that kept us in the majority, and he voted over 60% of the time with Rump. He votes for Rumps SCOTUS nominees, he supports and will campaign for a Rethug Senator, which might cost us control of the Senate if she wins and he might even switch parties under certain scenarios. There really is not that much of a difference at this point if he is in the caucus or not. He is openly saying he will not vote for our POTUS candidate if it is someone (Sanders in this case) he doesn't like. Will Warren (FAR more likely to be our POTUS candidate than Bernie) be next? That is massively aiding Rump if he does. Manchin is not up for reelection for FIVE YEARS and is still pulling this rot.

I so hope we grab enough seats in the Senate in 2020 to cut him completely and permanently out of the power loop.

Until then, I tolerate him, and I am glad he is (nominally) a Democrat, but I will never trust him, and he REALLY needs to stop supporting that POS Collins, and stop voting for Rump nominated judges.

[BlueMTexpat]

11. I would say what Manchin

can do to himself. But my comment would no doubt be deleted.

WVA is the birthplace of Mr Blue. I know that there have got to be some thinking voters in WVA who would like better representation from an actual Democrat instead of a DINO.

Please step up!

[Buckeyeblue]

12. I don't think Bernie will win the nomination

[Celerity]

13. Agreed nt