NYT Poll: Warren Leads Tight Iowa Race as Biden Fades

[Tiggeroshii]

The top Democratic presidential candidates are locked in a close race in the 2020 Iowa caucuses, with Senator Elizabeth Warren slightly ahead of Senator Bernie Sanders, Mayor Pete Buttigieg of South Bend, Ind., and former Vice President Joseph R. Biden Jr., according to a New York Times/Siena College poll of likely Democratic caucusgoers.

Ms. Warren appears to have solidified her gains in the first voting state while Mr. Buttigieg has climbed quickly to catch up with Mr. Sanders and overtake Mr. Biden, the onetime front-runner. Ms. Warren is drawing support from 22 percent of likely caucusgoers, while Mr. Sanders is at 19 percent, followed by Mr. Buttigieg at 18 percent and Mr. Biden at 17 percent.

https://www.nytimes.com/2019/11/01/us/politics/iowa-poll-warren-biden.html?action=click&module=Top%20Stories&pgtype=Homepage

[BeyondGeography]

1. Biden gets 2% of voters under 45 in this poll nt

[Tiggeroshii]

2. Do you know how his average has been in Iowa for that group?

I imagine that could be an outlier, but it is also believable.

[BeyondGeography]

5. It's ridiculously low, even for him

But his problems with younger voters aren't new. This is a state where people are paying closer attention so I'd be at least somewhat alarmed.

[Tiggeroshii]

9. Agreed!

[Act_of_Reparation]

12. Yeah, he's not popular with younger voters.

But I can't believe he's that unpopular. It's gotta be an outlier.

[ritapria]

14. You are right

There is no way that Biden is at 3% amongst voters under the age of 45 ….He's probably around 7-9% …..It's a very tight 4 way race right now ….Organization doesn't show up in these polls …….

[InAbLuEsTaTe]

6. Joe's done... he had a good run while it lasted. It's Bernie's & Elizabeth's time!!

Bernie/Elizabeth or Elizabeth/Bernie 2020!!
Either way, they're stronger together!!
Welcome to the revolution!!!

[Tiggeroshii]

10. I wouldn't count him out quite yet.

But if he's' actually giving up in Iowa and New Hampshire, he will have a harder time staying on top in the super tuesday states!

[InAbLuEsTaTe]

22. I would... and don't forget, polls are usually biased in favor of the establishment candidate.

Joe has nowhere left to go but down when measured against the two progressive candidates, Bernie & Elizabeth, with whom no one will be able to compete when they combine forces.

No one can stop this juggernaut, not even Hillary, should she decide to jump into the race, as Bill Clinton recently hinted, now that Joe is faltering.


Bernie/Elizabeth or Elizabeth/Bernie 2020!!
Either way, they're stronger together!!
Welcome to the revolution!!!

[Act_of_Reparation]

17. No way he's done.

He's definitely in trouble. He doesn't seem to have a plan to win Iowa or New Hampshire. Maybe he thinks Benie and Warren will split the progressive vote so significantly he'll skate through. Maybe he thinks he can win without them. Hell, maybe he can win without them.

I'm rambling. The point is don't count him out. No one in the top three is done.

[InAbLuEsTaTe]

23. I'm counting Joe out for the many reasons I've explained over the course of the primary.

Joe's fading in the polls is confirmation that I've been right on the money in my predictions.


Bernie/Elizabeth or Elizabeth/Bernie 2020!!
Either way, they're stronger together!!
Welcome to the revolution!!!

[beastie boy]

3. What is the margin of error in this poll?

Looks to me like #2, #3 and #4, are well within it.

[Tiggeroshii]

4. absolutely. However this is the 2nd poll in a row that puts Biden in 4th place

https://civiqs.com/documents/Civiqs_ISU_banner_book_2019_10.pdf

In this too though: you can probably argue he is tied for second when margin of error is taken into account.

[InAbLuEsTaTe]

7. People can still dream can't they?! Joe is fading... it's over, plain and simple.

Bernie/Elizabeth or Elizabeth/Bernie 2020!!
Either way, they're stronger together!!
Welcome to the revolution!!!

[Tiggeroshii]

8. It seems like polls are starting to confirm these rumors that he just doesn't care about Iowa.

I am more and more encouraged that Bernie or Warren will be the nominee. But we will see what the future has in store.

[beastie boy]

11. Sure you can dream!

Just don't get too disappointed when you wake up...

[Tiggeroshii]

15. Second straight poll with Biden in 4th place.

He needs to start taking Iowa serious, or Super Tuesday isn't going to go as planned.

[beastie boy]

18. You are right, Biden would be in a much better place if he finishes #1 or #2 in Iowa.

And he is within margin of error to make this goal achievable.

But "Joe is done"? That's definitely a dream.

[Tiggeroshii]

19. Less so than his supporters may think.

4th place in Iowa and nearly 0% among those under 45, is not a good sign for him.

[beastie boy]

20. When you say "less so", I assume you are referring to making this goal achievable

This remains to be seen.

But my issue was with "Joe is done". Even if he loses Iowa and New Hampshire, he is far from done.

[Tiggeroshii]

21. Agreed

[InAbLuEsTaTe]

25. "Not a good sign" is being the kind person you always are Tiggeroshii.

I genuinely feel sorry for Biden supporters who don't see the writing on the wall... it will only get worse for Joe from here, as the media, which has been Joe's greatest strength, eventually will turn to a new candidate to be it's favorite moderate candidate. The problem is Bernie & Elizabeth are the "fan favorites" among the working class people of this country and, thankfully, THEY will decide who will be their standard bearer.


Bernie/Elizabeth or Elizabeth/Bernie 2020!!
Either way, they're stronger together!!
Welcome to the revolution!!!

[emmaverybo]

27. The media has favored Warren and been unfairly biased against Joe who is not only popular

with the working class but far ahead of both Sanders and Warren with AA voters.

[InAbLuEsTaTe]

28. I'll grant you the advantage Joe currently has with AA voters... but, I predict

it won't last once the results of the first three primaries are in.


Bernie/Elizabeth or Elizabeth/Bernie 2020!!
Either way, they're stronger together!!
Welcome to the revolution!!!

[beastie boy]

30. You seem to think that a statistical dead heat is a devastating defeat for Biden.

And you seem to believe, for no particular reason, that it will only get worse for him.

I am sorry, but this is way outside of rational thought.

[Green Line]

16. Dream on

[InAbLuEsTaTe]

26. Yup, dream on, dream on, dream on... dream until your dreams come true!!

Bernie/Elizabeth or Elizabeth/Bernie 2020!!
Either way, they're stronger together!!
Welcome to the revolution!!!

[Hav]

29. 4.7 % because only 439 people participated

You'd prefer to be in Warren's position but as you said, the top 4 seem to be in a statistical tie.

[ritapria]

13. Siena College Iowa Sample is 64% Female

I doubt that will be the case on Caucus Night …. Probably closer to 56% Female /44% Male

[highplainsdem]

24. The poll greatly oversampled women, and has a MOE of nearly 5%. So the top 4 are in a virtual tie,

even if the poll's otherwise reliable, which seems unlikely.

https://scri.siena.edu/wp-content/uploads/2019/11/IADem1019.pdf

[Gothmog]

31. Folks, let's keep perspective.

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