Some here LOVED Siena/NYT's Iowa poll last week. They won't like their GE polling in IA & elsewhere

[highplainsdem]

A batch of GE matchup polls came out this morning, from the same pollster -- Siena College/NYT -- that gave us an Iowa primary poll last week showing Warren leading, with Biden in 4th place with only 2% support from voters under 45.

I didn't believe that. I thought their polling was inaccurate.

And I'm guessing the Warren supporters and Biden haters who were so happy with that poll will also hope the Siena/NYT polling is inaccurate, since their matchup polls for several states are worrisome, though they're less worrisome for Biden than the other Democratic candidates.


In Iowa, Siena/NYT has ALL the top Democratic candidates losing to Trump, who beats Biden by 1 point, Sanders by 3, Buttigieg by 4, and Warren by 6. (I suspect a lot of Warren supporters will lose their enthusiasm for this poll after seeing they having her doing worse than the other top candidates against Trump in the same state where they have her leading the Democratic field.)

https://github.com/ndcohn/battleground-poll-2019/blob/master/IA110419%20Crosstabs.pdf


In Wisconsin, Biden beats Trump by 4 points, Sanders beats him by 2, Warren ties him.

https://github.com/ndcohn/battleground-poll-2019/blob/master/WI110419%20Crosstabs.pdf


In Michigan, Sanders beats Trump by 2 points, Biden loses by 1, and Warren loses by 7.

https://github.com/ndcohn/battleground-poll-2019/blob/master/MI110419%20Crosstabs.pdf


In Florida, Biden beats Trump by 2 points, Sanders loses by 1, and Warren loses by 4.

https://github.com/ndcohn/battleground-poll-2019/blob/master/FL110419%20Crosstabs.pdf


In Pennsylvania, Biden beats Trump by 3 points, Sanders beats him by 1, and Warren loses by 1.

https://github.com/ndcohn/battleground-poll-2019/blob/master/PA110419%20Crosstabs.pdf


In Arizona, Biden beats Trump by 5 points, Warren beats him by 2, and Sanders loses by 1.

https://github.com/ndcohn/battleground-poll-2019/blob/master/AZ110419%20Crosstabs.pdf


In North Carolina, all three top Democratic candidates lose to Trump -- Biden by 2 points and Warren and Sanders both by 3.

https://github.com/ndcohn/battleground-poll-2019/blob/master/NC110419%20Crosstabs.pdf



Overall, their GE polling indicates Biden's our strongest candidate against Trump.

But those margins are too close for comfort.

So I hope the Siena/NYT polling is off.

And I still think their finding only 2% support for Biden among Iowa Democrats under the age of 45 was FUBAR.

[Cicada]

1. This poll was superior at predicting state results in 2018, off by 3%, notbusual 6%

I think they have a superior technology for polling states

[highplainsdem]

2. Well, if their polling is accurate, it suggests Warren is less electable than Biden and Sanders.

[ritapria]

3. I am sure you don't believe

Biden has the support of only 2% of likely Iowa Caucus aged 45 and younger …...That is a ridiculous finding ….Biden came in second place in the Iowa Youth Caucus - a straw poll of high school kids taken across Iowa ...300 High schools ...over 13,000 kids voted in the IA Dem Youth Caucus ……...

[highplainsdem]

4. No, I don't believe that, as I said in the OP. I hope they're off in all these states on how

well our top candidates could do against Trump.

[Joe941]

5. Not buying it.