CNN's Harry Enten on why Warren does worse than Biden in Siena/NYT GE matchup polls

[highplainsdem]

Those are the polls of several different states that came out today -- see this thread for the results by state:

https://www.democraticunderground.com/1287334918



Enten's Twitter thread starts here (full text below):

Link to tweet

I think Mr. Cohn pointed this out, but I think those thinking Warren doing worse than Biden cause of name id are mistaken. He points to Iowa where even Buttigieg (much lower name id) is doing nominally better.... I'll give you some more data...


In our last national poll, Biden's net favorable among voters who have an opinion of both Biden and Warren is 4 points higher than Warren's... We can go deeper than that too...


Look at the subset of voters who are NOT Democrats or Democratic leaning independents... That is non-potential Dem primary voters... Biden's net fav is 11 points higher among those who hold an opinion of both Biden and Warren...


I'm not making this out of thin air... If you look at ALL the polls... Not just those listed on RCP... You've seen consistently that Biden is doing better than Warren or Sanders. Could that change? Sure. We're a year out... but the numbers are the numbers.

[EveHammond13]

1. I WISH WISH WISH the American public was as smart and informed as DU

but it isn't. There are huge expanses of bigots, sexists and brainwashed consumers of trash news that are very susceptible to propaganda (socialism!).

I just don't think the broad American public is smart enough to vote for Warren.

[Thekaspervote]

2. Have to agree... unfortunately

[emmaverybo]

4. Joe in no way offers comfort to sexists and bigots. He has a long record of championing

civil rights and women’s. His message, however, has been geared toward unifying Americans, calling us to honor our ideals, reminding us of who we are in distinct contrast to Trump.

Warren’s message has been pretty much focused on a progressive political idea, her campaign about policy change, domestic economic plans. She has tied herself to an agenda. Joe has gone wider. He has sounded a theme that transcends policy and plans. Some would say he’s mouthing middle of the road platitudes.

But in setting up a bigger tent, he finds a bigger crowd.

Neither Sanders nor Warren seem to represent ideals beyond their progressive ideology. As fierce and energized about that set of principles as they are, the bedrock on which they pitch their “bold” and “big” plans, they fail to convey the bigger picture.

I don’t hear anything like the message Joe laid out in his launch speech, in Iowa after El Paso, in the one captured in his recent ad. That message is loudly anti-bigotry. It is about much more than bread and butter issues. Calling people to their better angels has always been a more likable message than “down with capitalism.” Talking about what’s great about American values will always win over railing against what’s wrong with the system, as morally right and needed as that is.



Snip———————————

What this president doesn’t understand is that unlike every other nation on earth, we're unable to define what constitutes "American" by religion, by ethnicity, or by tribe; you can't do it.
America is an idea. An idea stronger than any army, bigger than any ocean, more powerful than any dictator or tyrant. It gives hope to the most desperate people on earth….
The most powerful idea in the history of the world I think beats in the hearts of the people of this country. And it beats in all of us. No matter your race, your ethnicity. No matter your gender identity, your sexual orientation. No matter your faith. It beats in the heart of rich and poor alike. It unites America -- whether your ancestors were Native to these shores or they were brought here forcibly and enslaved, whether they were immigrants generations back, like my family from Ireland, or those coming today looking to build a better life for your family.

The American creed – that we are all created equal –was written long-ago. But the genius of every generation of Americans has opened it wider and wider and wider, to include those who have been excluded in a previous generation. That’s why it has never gathered dust in the history books.

End snip————————————————-

That’s emotional intelligence for you, which attracts people more than being
conventionally “smart.”

https://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/2019/08/07/joe-biden-reminded-all-us-what-presidential-president-would-sound-like/

[peggysue2]

5. That is most definitely the emotional intelligence running through Joe Biden's speeches

He's talking in the same tone and pitch that other successful presidents have used: acknowledging in many speeches where we've come up short but clearly calling out to our better angels, recognizing that the journey is never done, the work of progress and enlightenment must be carried and expanded by each generation. Because that's our legacy as a country, as a people, the inspiration that despite our shortcomings we can make things better for ourselves and our neighbors. There's no quick fix to our problems or the world's but the belief in American ingenuity, possibility and the core sense of equality, even when we've transgressed from basic principles, is a powerful motivator.

Or as JFK reminded us: we do these other things, not because they are easy but because they hard.

Certainly, reclaiming who and what we are as a people is as important if not more so than the moonshot.

Despite the criticism, I think Biden has his finger on the national pulse. We want to do better. We must do better. And as the man has said repeatedly, we cannot shirk our responsibilities or brood about every mistake. To whom much is given, much will be required, as the quote goes. We need to shake the dust off, get back in the saddle and commit ourselves to doing a better job.

We can do this!

[emmaverybo]

9. How you so eloquently synthesize what's up I just stand in awe of. Everything you said and

this: “Biden has his finger on the national pulse.”

He reads us, he feels us. As you pointed out, in the tradition of presidents that resonated with the public in the past—always at a deeper level than policy/plan, always an uplifting component stressing our “specialness” in can-do and the duty to...not a new call, but one we are attuned to.

Yes. These historical themes have been threaded through each speech, sounded in interviews, reiterated in the new ad. In his speech on foreign policy, he called America “a beacon” for democratic values. So not inventing the images, but these motifs hold us together now no less than a hundred years ago. Corny patriotism? No, because of that recognition of where we come up
short, the work ahead.

I’d so much rather listen to Biden’s call than to progressive economics 101 lectures and policy pushes.

Harris and Booker did a great job of tying issue to the unifying call to us as Americans message. They have had some powerful moments on racism, abuse of migrants, Trump’s betrayals, gun control, the likes of which I have yet to experience with Warren or Sanders who pour passion into one channel, deserving of some, sure, but all? All their energy expended on M4All etc.?

[peggysue2]

10. Thank you, ma'm

[BootinUp]

3. Those are the numbers. Nt

[Cha]

6. Thank you for Harry Enten's analysis,

hpd !

I'm not making this out of thin air... If you look at ALL the polls... Not just those listed on RCP... You've seen consistently that Biden is doing better than Warren or Sanders. Could that change? Sure. We're a year out... but the numbers are the numbers.

Nice to see where we are right now.. not "fading" as some like to frame it.

[caraher]

7. There's also the plain old misogyny factor

A FB friend's friend said she'd support Warren except doesn't like her "strident" voice. Warren is getting a little bit of the treatment Hillary did. Buttigieg and Biden don't have to fight misogyny in their campaigns.

[peggysue2]

11. Sadly, I think you're right

Some of the interviews conducted after the polling found some women complaining Warren wasn't 'likable' enough. It pains me when I read something like that because as you noted Hillary ran into the same thing. The 'likable' factor for women is an easy, lazy way to deny women positions of power. And these were women criticizing! Sometimes we're our own worst enemy.

The more things change, the more they stay the same, it seems.

(sigh)

[Skya Rhen]

12. Buttigieg just has to fight homophobia and Biden just has to fight ageism. No misogyny though.

[caraher]

13. True

But really, all the top candidates are in their 70s, so that part is almost a wash for the top tier. Warren seems to show the most energy of that bunch.

[emmaverybo]

14. A style of delivery which by no means indicates perseverance, tenacity, or any quality of the

underlying character. Helpful. Not at all a test of leadership. Not actually proof of health or mental stamina. Or good sense. Or anything more than energetic, passionate delivery when she expresses her plans, policies, ideology.

Not a style preferred by all. But helpful when an audience values a show of forceful enthusiasm.

[Tarheel_Dem]

8. K&R