David Plouffe and other Democrats set up a Super PAC to combat Trump

[tirebiter]

Faced with the knowledge that the Warren/Sanders wing is losing to Trump this is a necessary thing.


Liberal groups plan early anti-Trump campaign efforts in key 2020 states

Faced with the prospect of a long and divisive Democratic primary season, liberal groups are kick-starting the general election in targeted swing states with plans for paid advertising campaigns attacking President Trump’s economic record...

Priorities USA has promised to spend $100 million on broadcast and digital ads in Michigan, Wisconsin, Pennsylvania and Florida before Democrats pick a nominee. A second group, American Bridge, which has historically focused on opposition research, has begun fundraising for a $50 million expansion that will be devoted to a similar paid campaign to persuade voters in the same states that Trump has let them down.

A third group backed by labor unions and billionaire Tom Steyer, For Our Future, will be deploying $80 million this cycle for a voter contact campaign starting in the coming months that will target hard-to-reach voters this year in a broader group of potential swing states. And the political operation for former New York mayor Michael R. Bloomberg has begun planning a voter targeting and advertising effort focused on the nominating phase that could spend more than the $115 million invested in the 2018 elections, according to aides who were not authorized to speak publicly...

“We’re absolutely, as a party, not doing enough and I don’t know that $75 million is enough,” Ms. McGowan said. “We can’t afford to not do this work right now.” Of the fact that some of her group’s donors would remain undisclosed, she said, “We have to play on the field that exists,” noting that Mr. Trump is aided by such funds, as well...

https://www.washingtonpost.com › politics › 2019/03/21

[Demsrule86]

1. This is good news but perhaps we shouldn't run Sanders or Warren...

We need to beat Trump...why take a candidate who is not winning over Trump and try to push them over the top when we have a candidate who can beat Trump...Biden.

[SterlingPound]

3. How about the DCCC get off their ass and do more?

[Celerity]

11. the Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee (DSCC) has been worse, Schumer and Cortez Masto

have been fairly shambolic in the recruitment efforts.


We need a plus 4 net to flip the Senate to a 51-49 Dem advantage (so no power sharing agreements needed at all) as it stands, and a plus 5 net if Paedo Moore is not the Rethug Alabama nominee (and even that bastard will be hard for Jones to beat in a POTUS year in Alabama) and we lose Doug Jones. We should absolute hold all our other seats. Jeanne Shaheen in NH is the only one that is probably not a 99% lock, with the Rethugs choosing between Don Bolduc, former U.S. Army brigadier general, Bill O'Brien, former Speaker of the New Hampshire House of Representatives, Kelly Ayotte, former U.S. Senator and former Attorney General of New Hampshire, Scott 'Pickup' Brown, U.S. Ambassador to New Zealand and Samoa, former U.S. Senator from Massachusetts, and 2014 Republican nominee for U.S. Senate from New Hampshire, and the lunatic Rump stooge (and Hope Hicks' ex BF/verbal abuser), Corey Lewandowski. Bolduc and Ayotte are probably their best shots there (with Bolduc worrying me the most), but I feel really good about our chances to hold it, due to Rump being between 11 and 17 points (depending on the poll) underwater overall in NH.


These are all the remotely possible races where we can flip, all 13 of them. Some are very much a stretch, and also we are having a lot of big names refuse to run, in fact, all the arguably best candidates in 11 of the 13 seats have all refused, so far, to run.


These are the only 2 states ATM with our strongest possible candidates running:

Arizona Mark Kelly has a great chance at beating McSally. This was (until Hickenlooper got smart) the only state so far that we had the best potential candidate already running.

Colorado Hickenlooper now running makes it 90-95% that we flip this. Even if you do not think he is the best on policy, he still is the most electable. All I ask is that he knocks it off with the red-baiting (saying progressives are bringing back Stalin and Marx's policies), which is asinine and plays into the Rethug's hands. I would much prefer Joe Neguse or Andrew Romanoff to Hickenlooper strictly on policy but it is done, Hickenlooper will win both the primary and the general.


Now the ones who do NOT have our strongest candidates running as of yet:


Alaska (I hope Mark Begich, our ex US Senator there, runs versus Sullivan, he has said he was not, but now may change his mind.) If Begich ends up completely declining, then it will probably be between Ethan Berkowitz, the mayor of Anchorage, and Forrest Dunbar, Anchorage assemblyman and nominee for Alaska's at-large congressional district in 2014.

Maine (Susan Rice, who has said no quite emphatically, would have been the best to knock out the POS hypocrite Collins IMHO, but hopefully we can find another great one, it looks likely to be Sara Gideon atm, I think Gideon can take out Collins, just was more sure on Rice, but she is not going to run.)

Montana (The most glaring one, probably, grrrr as Bullock is basically the only one of ours who would have a great chance at beating Daines, I think Bullock would defeat him, but he has said dozens of times he will not run, I just heard him say it again today. Only redeemable way this works is if Biden makes him his VP pick, which I fully support, as that ticket is the hardest to attack for Rump and the Rethugs.) I think we MIGHT have a shot if Brian Schweitzer changes his mind and runs.

Tennessee (open Rethug seat, due to Alexander retiring, I so hope Tim McGraw (yes the superstar singer, who said for years he would run when he was 50, and he is 52 now) reconsiders his turndown, he would have the best shot from all I have seen, most of the other candidates we have are already one time losers, some just last year, or pretty unknown. The two I see who are the best should McGraw not change his mind are Jeff Yarbro and James Mackler)

Georgia With Isakson retiring (there will be an interim Repug appointed for the last year) There are now TWO seats we can flip. Stacey Abrams and Sally Yates would have had the best chances by far to beat Perdue and Rethug X, but each one has said no over and over, so it is going to be much harder I fear, even though Perdue is weak, and a shit campaigner. Jon Ossoff has now declared for David Perdue's seat. So far it looks like the best of the rest are Teresa Tomlinson, Stacey Evans, Sarah Riggs Amico, Jason Carter (Jimmy's grandson), Kasim Reed,and Michelle Nunn.

Kansas (open Rethug seat due to Roberts retiring, the right candidate for us has a shot, maybe Kathleen Sebelius, but she also just said no, and a big local paper says that really hurts our chances This is a carbon copy of Montana, just swap in Sebelius for Bullock, its a Red state and all the insiders say she is only Dem who can win.)

Iowa (Cindy Axne and Vilsack, probably our 2 best chances to beat Ernst, both have declined to run, but I have hope we can find another great candidate, Theresa Greenfield (I think she will be the Dem winner) or Chet Culver (not declared) look to be the best of the rest, this is similar Maine IMHO)

North Carolina (our two best candidates by far, Foxx and Stein, have both said no, grrr, I so hope one, especially Foxx, re-considers) Tillis is so ripe for the picking if we get one of those 2 to run, and still may have a shot if it is another, Cal Cunningham perhaps, or Erica Smith, but both will have a harder time that Stein or Foxx would have had. This one is so so irritating me.

now the two wishful thinking states:

Kentucky This is probably the 2nd toughest. Andy Beshear might have had a shot at dumping McTurtle, but he is running for Governor, Amy McGrath is who we are going to have to roll with, and it is not impossible, due to McConnell being truly hated even by some Rethugs, his overall approval numbers are worse than Rump by far, amongst the bottom in all the Senate. Overall a huge reach, but so hope Moscow Mitch goes DOWN. McGrath needs to make no more errors like the one she did right at kickoff (saying she would have voted yes for Kavanaugh for SCOTUS. The same thing crushed Bredesen in TN in 2018, it so depressed our base turnout.)

Texas Cornyn in Texas is the toughest reach, IMHO, even if Beto runs (which I doubt he will.) Cornyn is streets ahead of Cruz in terms of TX popularity. I like Amanda Edwards a lot, I hope she wins the Primary, but, I do not see a pathway to anyone beating Cornyn unless something massive breaks our way. MJ Hegar is the Democratic frontrunner atm.


We would need to win FIVE of those 13 to flip it to 51-49 IF Jones goes down in Alabama, and only CO is even close to one that I would say is a pretty good chance to label a semi-lock, and some are just downright so so hard, even if the best candidates change their minds and run. My true target is 6 flips, so we are at 52-48, and thus negate Manchin and Sinema, who vote with the Rethugs 55% of the time, far more than any other Democratic Senators. I SO hope Hickenlooper does not become the 3rd member of that posse, lolol.

Schumer and Cortez Masto have been so poor at recruiting the best candidates, it is one of the biggest stories of 2020 so far. I am going to give up on pulling the people who I think are strongest in ME, IA, (those two I can be happy with who we have) TX, and KY. We just have to roll with who we have there now. AZ and CO now have our best possible, so that leaves:

AK (Begich run!)
MT (Bullock run! or if he is VP, or if he refuses, Schweitzer run!)
TN (McGraw run!)
KS (Sebelius run!)
NC (Foxx and/or Stein run!)
GA (2 seats) (Abrams run! and Yates run! if Abrams is the VP or refuses still, hopefully we can find another strong candidate from that list above.)

IF all those above change their minds and run, I can say, with at least 60% or more confidence, we will hit at least 6 flips, and maybe, IF Rump just gets crushed, win 11 of the 13, and if he goes down with my biggest possible EC count giving us EVERY remotely possible EV, we may get all 13, plus keep Jones. If that happened we would have 60 seats, so a filibusterer proof majority.

Finally, one of the dead Red lock states is by far the best bet to be a huge surprise, that being Mike Rounds in SD going down, hopefully to ex-Senator Tim Johnson's son, Brendan Johnson. The max possible EC victory count by the way, that paved the way for a 13 out of 13 sweep plus Jones holding and SD even maybe flipped, was our Dem POTUS nominee 472 - Rump 66. A girl can dream!

[SterlingPound]

16. and it has been this way

for almost 2 decades

you can see the results a year out before they happen

[Demsrule86]

18. What should they do? Prop up Warren or Sanders? Why should they?

Clearly Warren should not be our nominee based on these and other polls nor should Sanders. You don't take a losing candidate and push them over the top; most likely you will fail anyway and that would be interfering with the primary voters. I will vote for any Democratic nominee but Biden is the most electable candidate IMHO.

[SterlingPound]

24. I am not saying anything near that

and i dont care about the "Most electable" in a year when all are electable

i care about the best plans.

[Demsrule86]

25. All are not electable in my opinion...and the best policy is in the eye of the beholder.

[Hortensis]

14. :) Agree and sure as I can be that we won't. GOP/Putin are

moving Warren up by mounting major attacks on Biden. So, of course, that's a good part of what we're seeing in the polls.

Analysis of Russia's social media interventions reportedly shows, beyond occasional strategically boosting of Warren and Sanders, though, badmouthing of all our top candidates. Dissension, demoralization, "chaos" all benefit the Republicans. A lot of tweets calling Warren things like “liberal whack job” and Sanders "commie" and "conman" are aimed at both parties, but of course Biden gets the lion-candidate's share.

And in the meantime, as you indicate, Democrats still have best-chance electablity as a top priority. Most of us weren't fooled in 2016 and certainly aren't now.

[Demsrule86]

17. I completely agree.

[Hortensis]

19. Knew you did. I've read a lot of Demsrule posts. :)

[Demsrule86]

20. I read your posts also...you are knowledgeable about many different things and write beautifully..

I might add. I enjoy your posts.

[bucolic_frolic]

2. Once our nominee is chosen

the runners-up should keep campaigning for the Democratic nominee. Never in the history of mankind have we needed party unity so much. We must must must convince all candidates' supporters to GOTV for Democrats!

[Demsrule86]

21. My time, money and vote will go to any Democrat who wins the nomination. It is crucial to get Trump

out. I hope to save the house and get the Senate as well...but Trump's removal is my number one goal.

[highplainsdem]

4. Here's the link for that article from this past March:

https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/liberal-groups-plan-early-anti-trump-campaign-efforts-in-key-2020-states/2019/03/21/4522d0d2-4bdc-11e9-b79a-961983b7e0cd_story.html

[Cha]

6. Ron Klain tweet..

Link to tweet

[highplainsdem]

9. Thanks, Cha! That tweet has a link to a new NYT story on what they're doing -- great news!

[Cha]

10. Yes it is.. and this..

which I know you've seen but bears repeating..

Dozens of Obama alums rally to boost Biden at D.C. fundraiser

https://www.democraticunderground.com/?com=view_post&forum=1287&pid=335348

[Hortensis]

15. Sounds like moving the GE schedule up to the primary a bit.

Glad to hear some on the left with a lot of money are putting it where their mouths are.

We haven't gotten money out of politics yet by any means, and RW billionaires certainly don't believe in sitting on theirs and hoping "grassroots" dollar donors will subvert the elections for them.

[Cha]

5. This is great news for the Democratic party and our hopes in 2020. Thank you @taraemcg & @davidplou

Link to tweet

Mahalo, tirebiter!

[Demsrule86]

22. I met David once while working for the Obama campaign...he was brilliant.

I only met him the once but he had fingers in every part of the campaign here in Ohio. And we won Ohio!

[ritapria]

7. Bernie is not losing to Trump

He is defeating Trump in poll after poll - often by landslide proportions …...

[questionseverything]

26. i know i wondered why they snuck that in but i am all for helping democrats get elected

[tirebiter]

8. From what I saw in 2008, Plouffe was the genius behind the genius

Axelrod got to go along for the ride. Liked Ax and still do but Plouffe was the mechanic for that road trip, imnsho.

[Demsrule86]

23. He was. Now Limbaugh started operation chaos which caused the primary to drag on IMHO...but

the silver lining is that Obama had an organization in every state...this allowed Virginia and North Carolina and even Indiana to turn blue in 08...we need to do this again...it will be very helpful in Arizona, Texas, Georgia, North Carolina ET AL.

[FloridaBlues]

12. Glad to see this because trump and company will have unlimited cash.