Automation ia threatening millions of jobs sooner than most seem williing to admit.

[redqueen]

No other candidate ia confronting this issue with the same clear understanding or focus as Yang.

The rise of self-driving vehicles could lead to a dramatic reduction in road accidents, says Alex Rodrigues, the 24-year-old chief executive of the self-driving truck company Embark. But the ability to eliminate human drivers is also an appealing prospect for companies eager to cut costs and maximize efficiency — including by moving freight 24/7: “Right now, human drivers are limited to 11 hours by federal law, and a driverless truck obviously wouldn’t have that limitation,” he tells FRONTLINE in the above excerpt.

For now, there’s still a human sitting in the cab of his delivery trucks, but that human isn’t driving. Rodrigues says he believes it will take only a few years to “see the first vehicles operating with no one inside them moving freight” — a trend that he says will grow to encompass “more freight, and more geographies and more weather over time.”

It’s the sort of scenario that could endanger the careers of independent truckers like Shawn Cumbee, who is based in Beaverton, Mich. Cumbee says he has his doubts about the rise of automation in the trucking industry: “They’re putting all this new technology into things, but you know, it’s still man made,” he says in the above excerpt. “Man does make mistakes.”

Cumbee goes on to explain why he feels drivers like him can’t be replaced by automation: “You’ve still got to have a driver in it, because I don’t see it doing cities. I don’t see it doing, you know, main things. I don’t see it backing into a dock … I ain’t really worried about the automation of trucks.”

But when his wife, Hope, hears that Embark trucks are already delivering freight on Interstate 10, she pauses: “Really?”[

https://www.pbs.org/wgbh/frontline/article/could-the-rise-of-artificial-intelligence-put-truckers-jobs-in-peril/?utm_source=TWITTER&utm_medium=social&utm_term=20191105&utm_content=2800494669&utm_campaign=Frontline&linkId=76530269
/div]

[andym]

1. Yang is correct about the danger of automation and AI

But, there are two factors that mitigate the problem somewhat.
1) automation is expensive and requires large capital investments
2) AI is not yet good at general intelligence, which means humans are required to guide and improve it.

Both will change over time.

[Sherman A1]

2. I believe it will arrive much sooner than

most of us anticipate. Yang is absolutely correct on this topic and we ignore it at our own peril.

[brooklynite]

7. What does he propose to do about it?

$12,000 isn't a substitute.

[redqueen]

8. It's not intended to be a replacement for income

It's only meant to aid in the transition through this fourth industrial revolution.

It only provides a floor, below which people won't sink.

Right now, fear and insecurity are driving people to a more conservative mindset. We have to turn that around.

Scarcity and fear can lead to disastrous outcomes as people may (or likely will) begin to turn on each other.

Imo we are seeing this starting already, and that is why we have Trump, and why there is so much hostility and anger out there.

[msongs]

10. what does he propose to do about it (repeat until answered) nt

[redqueen]

13. To do about what?

Not clear on the question...

[Sherman A1]

18. HUMAN-CENTERED CAPITALISM

Capitalism as an economic system has led to unparalleled innovation and improvement in the human condition. Many consider it to have “won” the war of ideas against socialism, but that simplistic view ignores that there is no such thing as a pure Capitalist system. And our current version of institutional capitalism and corporatism is a relatively recent development.

Our current emphasis on corporate profits isn’t working for the vast majority of Americans. This will only be made worse by the development of automation technology and AI.

We need to move to a new form of capitalism – Human Capitalism – that’s geared towards maximizing human well-being and fulfillment. The central tenets of Human Capitalism are:

Humans are more important than money
The unit of a Human Capitalism economy is each person, not each dollar
Markets exist to serve our common goals and values
The focus of our economy should be to maximize human welfare. Sometimes this aligns with a purely capitalist approach, where different entities compete for the best ideas. But there are plenty of times when a capitalist system leads to suboptimal outcomes. Think of an airline refusing to honor your ticket because they can get more money from a customer who purchases last-minute, or a pharmaceutical company charging extortionate rates for a life-saving drug because the customers are desperate.

The focus of our economy should be to maximize human welfare. Sometimes this aligns with a purely capitalist approach, where different entities compete for the best ideas. But there are plenty of times when a capitalist system leads to suboptimal outcomes. Think of an airline refusing to honor your ticket because they can get more money from a customer who purchases last-minute, or a pharmaceutical company charging extortionate rates for a life-saving drug because the customers are desperate.

https://www.yang2020.com/policies/human-capitalism/

There is more at the link

[Sherman A1]

19. The Economic Proposes Policies from his web page.

The Freedom Dividend
Human-Centered Capitalism
Improve the American Scorecard
End Bidding Wars for Corporate Relocation
Timing of Payments for Small Businesses
Data as a Property Right
Crypto/Digital Asset Regulation and Consumer Protection
The Penny Makes No Cents
Empowering MMA Fighters
Fight for Equal Pay
Increase Assistance for Single Parents
Make it Easier to Save for Retirement
Free Financial Counseling for All
Make it Easy for Americans to Move for Work
Implement Mandatory Paid Leave Policy
Ease the Transition to Self-Driving Vehicles
Capital Gain/Carried Interest Tax
Financial Transaction Tax
NCAA Should Pay Athletes
Zoning
Provide Basic Banking Services through the Post Office
Value-Added Tax
Robo-Calling Text Line

https://www.yang2020.com/policies/

[Miguelito Loveless]

3. Self-driving cars/trucks are still a few years out technologically speaking,

and at least a decade away after that to clear legislative hurdles to get them on the road in all 50 states.

More than enough time to start retraining and transitioning the workforce into new jobs, if anyone bothers to care.

[Cuthbert Allgood]

4. Yang talks about retraining.

short version: it doesn't work.

But there are already self-driving trucks on the road. He indicates within the next few years we will only need people to drive the trucks out of urban centers. Tech is capable now of interstate driving. Plus the savings from being able to daisy chain multiple trucks for wind resistance will be huge.

[Miguelito Loveless]

16. This will be allowed until the first, inevitable accident

which, whether it is the AI's fault or not, will result in gov't agencies jumping back from the tech like scalded cats. There are MASSIVE legal hurdles that must be addressed before there can be the massive elimination of human drivers. I foresee a decade of "safety drivers" being required before they are eliminated. Such people will probably cause more accidents than they will prevent.

I am VERY pro-tech, own an EV, and am completely in favor of the change over to autonomy. I just don't see it happening on the time scale folks are predicting. Long haul on the interstate highways is one thing, but the massive amount of work occurs on twisty-turny secondary roads in very poor condition, which AI cannot handle any time soon.

Coal mining was automated, but it took decades to reduce the work force to its current level. The loss of coal jobs is accelerating in the last decade, but that is mostly driven by the closing of mines due to the low price of methane, not automation.

People in doomed jobs must either retrain, be paid off, or be allowed to die off, rather literally I am afraid. It all depends on the next national election. The next election relies on voters who hold these jobs voting in their own self-interest for once, rather than against it, as they have done in the last century.

I am not sanguine these people will change their views, even with their own lives at stake, as they have never done so in the past. I have family on my father's side from WV, and on my wife's from KY. Both overwhelmingly support the people who will kill them rather than those who would save them.

[Wellstone ruled]

5. Interesting topic.

Believe Tesla is now late into year two of their Self Driving rigs. Last time I was in Reno,saw two Rigs delivering to their Assembly Plant in Sparks. And pulling loads over the Donner proves it is here to stay.

[redqueen]

14. When you look at the increased revenues created by automation

the future is clear. This is happening and it's going to be implemented faster than we expect.

[Wellstone ruled]

15. At this date,

these Robo Trucks at Tesla have a Driver in the Seat just in case. But,at the same time,the on Board Computers are inputting data each trip making the Auto Mode more reliable.

The Rigs on the I 10 have one Driver running several rigs in Convoy formation. Again,the On Board Systems are in the learning Mode and with each trip,I am sure it gets them closer to full Satellite operation.

Railroads have been using Radio Controlled Locos in Switching operations since the late Seventies as well as test running a Unit Train of empties at one time or another.

[treestar]

6. It always creates other jobs at the same time

someone has to program the cars, maintain them, and so on.

Robots have to be manufactured, programmed and maintained too.

Sales forces would also be included.

People seem to have problems seeing that.

It's safer to have robot programmers than to have coal miners underground. None of this is bad.

[redqueen]

11. It's true that other jobs are created, but the quantity is fewer

And the skill level higher.

Truck drivers are on average 49 year old men. These will not realistically be a good fit for the high tech jobs created.

There are millions of truck drivers. What options are going to be available them as those jobs disappear?

[treestar]

22. The self driving truck has to be programmed

and who would be better to be able to decide how they have to be programmed? The IT professional needs the input from the truck drivers surely.

Not sure if you are right about the fewer number - would the auto industry in the end have employed far more than the horse and buggy industry, especially with the population growing as it did in those days (and now it grows slower).

[redqueen]

23. No, programmers only need drivers long enough to teach the system.

Once that's done it's done.

They'll still use some drivers to take control when the system has an issue, but far, far fewer.

Comparing this industrial revolution to any we've experienced before is a mistake. AI and automation are game changers on a level we have not seen before.

Pinning our children's future on the hope that things will somehow work out all right, simply because it hasn't been too disruptive in the past, is dangerous and imo irresponsible.

[treestar]

24. The progress is going to happen though

so the only answer is the universal basic income.

[TidalWave46]

9. This is exactly why I would never vote for Yang.

It's why he doesn't deserve the vote of any progressives. It is one thing to help ease the transition as society changes. It is something completely different to want to use the government to suffocate innovation and change.

I hope people actually read what he has put out there about this. It should be a non-starter for all progressives. It's that big of a deal.

I like Yang. This is his major flaw.

[redqueen]

12. How does he want to suffocate innovation and change? nt

[Sherman A1]

20. Explain how he is suffocating any innovation?

Yang is about 3 steps ahead of the rest of the field in seeing the future's impact of technology on the workforce and trying to find a means to mitigate it for those who will most definitely be affected. There is no suffocation just redressing what will certainly be growing and growing inequality.

[Newest Reality]

17. I agree that this is a significant problem...

It should be given attention before the trend is in full gear, because the ramifications are going to be substantial.

Another point that comes to mind is the pay-scale leverage that automation will give corporations. When the trade-off is they can either pay employees more or invest in automation that only requires a one-time amount plus operating costs and maintenance, what happens to the already flat-lined pay rates we see? Obviously, the cost of automation will go down over time and the capacity to replace human skills and labor will increase dramatically.

So, that does leave us with a big whole in the circle at some point. Since the consumer is an important part of the cycle, how can providers of services and producers of goods rely on only a smaller percentage of people to support their business?

I see a major impact to our ideas about capitalism and economies brewing here, and it is not a replay of the previous, tectonic shifts we saw with the industrial and information revolutions so far. Not only will the jobs that "replace" the old ones be more technological and specific, (they will not be accessible to all potential labor) there will be less of them. Oh, and mean less and less of them because it does not stop at mere production of goods, etc., it refines itself, eventually as machines repairing themselves or other machines, and onward.

I think everyone knows that this is not just a matter of putting parts together or robots that make fast food, right? The growth of weak AI and the potential of strong AI takes this right up the income chain into white collar professions and services, too. So, it is not just about who's career will be immune, but also for how long.

This is a MAJOR issue and it is going to accelerate dramatically within a short period of time.

[dgauss]

21. John Nichols and Robert McChesney wrote a book about the impact of automation

and possible solutions.

https://www.amazon.com/People-Get-Ready-Citizenless-Democracy/dp/1568585217

I've been meaning to read it for a while now. I heard John Nichols doing an interview about a year back and it sounded interesting. Also a little depressing.

[ck4829]

25. Luxury Communism now

Instead of plutocracy, let's get the money firms are getting from automated labor and distribute it to the people.

It's either that, a greater divide between the haves and the have-nots, or mass Neo-Luddism.