Paul Begala on CNN just made an interesting point about Biden "collapsing":

[George II]

He said "back in April when he announced, he was at 28, today he's at 28. Everyone's waiting for Biden to collapse, it isn't happening."

(not a word-for-word quote)

Actually the numbers are slightly different:

On April 24 he was at 29.3, his closest rival was at 23.0
Today he's at 28.3, his closest rival is at 20.6

In April BS was in second place, today Warren is in second place. But he's actually extended his lead from 6.3 to 7.7.

To think just over the weekend some here were saying his campaign was collapsing and he should drop out. Ooops!

[Grasswire2]

1. I even heard that theory from a taxi driver the other day.

Crazy.

[evertonfc]

2. boom

Our best chance to expand the map isn't dropping out. Come on peeps. Biden will crush Trump. Why do think Trump has been going after him the last 24 months

[emmaverybo]

36. Not a peep outta Trump machine on Sanders or Warren. Keeping its powder remarkably dry.

Perfectly clear why.

[kstewart33]

52. We must win the battleground states.

Biden is by far the strongest candidate in those states.

Electability matters most of all, and for all his gaffes, Biden scores best on this factor.

[Gore1FL]

61. I heard the same arguments in 2008. Obama was the dangerous choice then.

I remember when we nominated Kerry because he was safe and Dean wasn't electable.

Going with who can get elected is good. I just don't know a better way to see who that actually is without going through the process.

[still_one]

3. The end of Biden has been pushed by some since he entered the race, without merit I might add

That some folks seem to be trying so hard to push this theme, indicates to me a sense of insecurity in the candidate they are supporting

[George II]

4. Not to correct you, but not "insecurity" but abject "FEAR"!

[Jarqui]

5. As usual, Begala is not reliable

https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2020/president/us/2020_democratic_presidential_nomination-6730.html

Begala is comparing figures to just before Biden announced - when he was not an official candidate.

After Biden announced, he got a big bounce through May, June & July where he was roughly +15 or so.

Since then, it has narrowed to the point where Warren caught him and then fell back some since in part due to Warren's position on M4A.

I like Joe & Elizabeth. Joe's campaign has had some significant problems - beyond fund raising.

It may be why Bloomberg is jumping in and Holder is thinking about it.

[Demsrule86]

7. Not true...Biden is not fading ...wait for the Warren numbers and actual voting...Biden will be

the nominee and no one cares about Bloomberg...Some (including you it seems) accept a false narrative.

[Jarqui]

8. The claim about those numbers is false

Again, the first numbers were cherry picked from polls before Biden announced and was a candidate
Look at the graph in that link of what happened after he announced.
https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2020/president/us/2020_democratic_presidential_nomination-6730.html
And that is not one outlier poll - it is all of them.

Biden may yet prevail. But he is not nearly in as good a position as he was.
His poor 3rd qty fundraising tells us that. And so does the narrowing of these polls.
He's slipped to 4th in Iowa. (In April Biden led Warren 25 to 7)
He's second to Warren +4 in NH. (In April, Biden led Warren by 13)
He's losing to Warren in California. (In April Biden led Warren 26 to 7)
A month ago, Warren had caught him over all.
This race has significantly tightened up.

In January 2008, Hillary had a 21+ point lead.
Nearly three times the lead Biden has now.
How did that turn out?

This primary is far from over.

[emmaverybo]

13. She caught him by point 2 of a percent in an aggregate that ignored one important poll's results

or had miscalculated it—which is why her lead did not last. She has only begun to be challenged.
As to fund raising, Biden’s October was terrific.

He’s leading in the states that matter. He’s leading in the national. He’s leading in national match-ups with Trump.

[Jarqui]

15. Hillary was in a much stronger position than Joe on Jan 2, 2008 +21.6

She had held a commanding lead over Obama and everyone else since the outset of the campaign - back to 2006.

Just 40 days later, on Feb 13, 2008, Obama gained 21.9 points and passed her for good.

A key was Obama winning Iowa. That got him more air time and national media notice, etc. The rest is history. Warren, Sanders & Buttigieg are all looking like they will beat Biden in Iowa. They seem better organized there.

I do not see an Obama in the field. Some might
https://www.huffpost.com/entry/pete-buttigieg-pitches-barack-obama-iowa-bus-tour-2020-democratic-presidential-primary_n_5dc44e2be4b0d8eb3c91c9f5
but relative to the leader, Warren is much better positioned at this juncture than Obama was

Biden is down to a 7.7 point lead more than two months sooner than Hillary - before the voting has even started. That's a lean - not likely or safe.

I think the world of Joe. But this primary is a long way from being over. He's far more vulnerable than Hillary was in 2008.

[emmaverybo]

16. Hillary is not running. She was stronger than Warren or Sanders too. And far more qualified, as

is Joe. Iowa is not all that. Certainly not representative. Pete, Warren, Sanders all lacking AA support. That matters. Right, far from over.

[Jarqui]

20. In early 2008, Hillary had significantly more support from blacks than Obama

CNN did a segment on it in January 2008.
But then they flipped to Obama. They were a significant segment of the 22 point swing.

This time around, black leaders have cautioned that black support is fluid.
They have said the other candidates are starting to interest them.

Sanders has very good favorability numbers with blacks - just not as good as the Clintons or Biden.

But some of the fluidity is starting to show:
Elizabeth Warren endorsed by group of black women activists
https://www.cnn.com/2019/11/07/politics/elizabeth-warren-endorsement-black-women-activists/index.html

If Eric Holder joins Cory Booker and Kamala Harris, that is going to siphon away some black support - as blacks get aware of their candidacy. Many blacks do not know them yet.

This is a real horse race. Biden is in the lead but there is a long, long way to go.

[emmaverybo]

21. Yes, she is endorsed by "black Womxn for," a very progressive activist group of black trans,

non-binary, non-gender specific women who, although they represent not only their own community’s concerns, but those of the larger black communities, are not that larger electorate Warren needs far greater support from.

And no, Bernie’s AA support is not at all as good as Clinton’s or his CURRENT rival, Biden’s. I do not find that surprising. He has not worked at building relationships with black leaders and communities. Neither has Warren.

Everything is fluid at this point.

Black voters certainly know Corey Booker and Kamala Harris.

[Jarqui]

24. You are being too dismissive of Warren

The primaries are a dynamic process. Things change.

Compare the polls done by Quinnipiac or ABC/WaPo from last April 30-June 2019 to their most recent.
Look at Warren's numbers with blacks. They're up dramatically. At a glance, she's taken a bunch from Sanders and maybe a little from Joe.

I'd go so far as to say: if Sanders has another health issue and drops out (I like Bernie so I do not want that to happen), I think Warren would take the lead.

If Bloomberg joins in, I think he'll draw more from Joe - who enjoys support from older folks - and that will tighten things up.

Those are just more examples of how volatile this race could be.

[emmaverybo]

25. I think you misunderestimate Joe! Bernie would put rollers on his coffin and run. I say that

with admiration.

Sure, only death and taxes are certainties. A week is a year in politics. But, hey, you support Buttigieg. Why not hold out the possibility of a lead for him?

[Jarqui]

46. I truly like and support all of them

No one would be any happier if Buttigieg took off from Iowa and won like Obama. I'm very impressed with him. But if we're comparing to 2008, Warren is in Obama's polling position more than Pete is. Warren is making inroads with winning some black support. Pete not so much.

Pete's my favorite but I have to try to keep it real. He's kind of leading the second tier of candidates and in need of some media magic. Today's media is too fractured and messed up to have high expectations that he can pull off what Obama did - starting from a weaker position at this point. He's a very capable speaker and has a wonderful mind and attitude but he's not the great orator Obama was. I'm hoping for the best but realize this may not be his year.

[InAbLuEsTaTe]

28. Excellent point... even Joe knows it based on recent campaign strategy decisions.

Bernie/Elizabeth or Elizabeth/Bernie 2020!!
Either way, they're stronger together!!
Welcome to the revolution!!!

[Jarqui]

47. I supported Bernie in 2016 - I'll like him forever

Bernie and Elizabeth seem to be fighting for a bunch the same voters.
Both have the support of youth.
Elizabeth seems to have taken a bunch of Bernie's support from blacks.

If they consolidated the support they both have (maybe by one of them dropping out - I'm not suggesting that - just kicking thoughts around), they could beat Biden in the primary.

But Biden has stronger support with the 50+ crowd. For the general election, Bernie or Elizabeth might be better off with a running mate that appeals to the 50+ folks to compliment and augment their appeal. Joe's already done that job so I doubt it would appeal to him.

Biden with Elizabeth as VP would be a heck of a team following that thinking ... they compliment each other demographically pretty well.

[InAbLuEsTaTe]

48. I agree with you on everything, except no way Bernie or Elizabeth would even offer Joe the VP slot.

And even if they did, understandably, Joe wouldn't accept, like you say.


Bernie/Elizabeth or Elizabeth/Bernie 2020!!
Either way, they're stronger together!!
Welcome to the revolution!!!

[Jarqui]

49. If Joe were younger, he'd do it for the country

He's a patriot.
I think he was the best VP of my lifetime.
He wasn't a lapdog. He challenged Barack debating issues.
But he found a wonderful balance between his policy positions, his loyalties, his values and friendship to best serve his country.

There isn't a President who sat in that Oval office who would have been ill served by someone like Joe as their VP.

Elizabeth or Bernie would be very lucky to find someone like that.

If Joe took the job, the only way it would not end well would be due to his health - that he developed some problem.Joe would put the country first like he proved with Obama. But he's been there and done that. Someone else deserves a shot ... to groom them to take over in 8 years

[George II]

51. I agree with that first statement, neither BS nor Warren will be in a position to offer him the VP.

[Cha]

6. The m$media and anti-Bidens have a narrative

and their sticking to it.. in spite of evidence to the contrary.

lol@the Nation

Link to tweet

Thanks for the news, George!

[PhoenixDem]

9. The ultra left wing wants Biden to collapse

not realizing that most Democrats are centrists.

[emmaverybo]

11. They realize but think their superior political philosophy, and superior plans based on it, should

perforce override majority will. That they are but a rather sizable minority within a majority is of no importance. They give themselves a mandate.

I find that attitude—ignore mainstream democrats—obnoxious.

[PhoenixDem]

12. Great post

[emmaverybo]

14. Gee gosh, Thanks.

[BootinUp]

10. If anyone is going to collapse

it will be Elizabeth Warren. Jmho

[emmaverybo]

17. Well, she has about thirty or so more extensive and costly plans she will eventually probably have

to talk about in terms of feasibility and how she is going to pay for them—that is, in addition to
M4All. She is just beginning to be challenged. Not clear how she will be affected. Devoted fans don’t always translate into votes needed to win.

[BootinUp]

19. There's something I want to say

Not a direct response but still related...when a candidate for office has major policies or positions that are clearly geared to winning a primary not a GE, then run away. That is all.

[emmaverybo]

22. I get it though I hadn't thought about policy proposals in that light. Often think they all evolve

to some extent in a political appeal context—get those votes, a chicken in every pot, keep up with my opponent who promised X so I top with Y—but go with what gets me a primary vs. GE win makes sense too.

I’m with Pelosi. Pretty much Pay as we go. Leave enough for disasters and down-turns. Record-high deficit not something to dismiss and leave to the next generation. I see from my old student loans what happens with interest!

So don’t tell me you will get it from here or from there. Tell me you have it.

[crazytown]

18. Biden needs around 40% of the vote to win a majority of delegates

as opposed to a plurality. A result in the low thirties with Warren & Sanders above 15% translates into a loss on the Convention floor.

[emmaverybo]

23. Well then you are backing the winner! What you worry?

You go, Joe
The world needs you.

[InAbLuEsTaTe]

29. The writing's on the wall... why Hillary keeps hinting she's jumping in the race.

Bernie/Elizabeth or Elizabeth/Bernie 2020!!
Either way, they're stronger together!!
Welcome to the revolution!!!

[crazytown]

30. If Hillary goes in, Bernie might end up with the most delegates

HRC would split Biden's vote while drawing college educated white women from Warren. On the floor, Warren would be the most likely to get the nod.

[InAbLuEsTaTe]

32. LOL, great minds think alike!! That's what I expect too if Hillary does run...and I hope she does!!

Bernie/Elizabeth or Elizabeth/Bernie 2020!!
Either way, they're stronger together!!
Welcome to the revolution!!!

[democratisphere]

26. Joe Biden will still be standing tall for the Presidential nomination

when most of the other candidates will have fallen by the wayside. Onward!

[onetexan]

27. agree. The MSM is trying to whip up nonsense to sensationalize.

[crazytown]

31. Warren & Sanders are not falling by the wayside.

No poll since April has Biden getting the 40% he needs to win a majority of Delegates.

[InAbLuEsTaTe]

33. THIS!!!

Bernie/Elizabeth or Elizabeth/Bernie 2020!!
Either way, they're stronger together!!
Welcome to the revolution!!!

[Tiggeroshii]

34. He's run for president 3 times and hasn't won a single primary.

4th time's the charm?

In contrast, Bernie has run for president once and won 23 primaries. He still seems like the more viable candidate, polling aside.

[emmaverybo]

35. Well, seems like to YOU. How many times did Reagan run? Bernie is not as widely respected and

loved as Biden, not as accomplished, job-specific qualified or experienced, and no way, no how,
has the chance to win a GE against Trump that Biden would have.

Yes, Trump would rather run against Bernie.

[Tiggeroshii]

37. Biden still has yet to prove he can win a primary, let alone the presidency.

Bernie can at least win a primary, or 23

[emmaverybo]

38. Bernie has won 23 presidential primaries? I didn't know that.

[Tiggeroshii]

39. .

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2016_Democratic_Party_presidential_primaries

[emmaverybo]

44. Oh, I do see. State primaries. Yes. Should count for something.

[Tiggeroshii]

59. So far, Biden isn't even set to win IA (tied for 3rd) or NH (tied for 2nd) based on current polling.

Which could set him up to losing SC as well. If polling is correct, Warren will win NH and IA which sets her up well for SC, NV and the Super Tuesday states.

[emmaverybo]

60. And so you hope. Personally, I don't know how much SC voters will be guided by IA or NH results.

As progressives remind us, the political landscape it is a changin’, and that means rising awareness that two little white states do not represent our electorate’s diversity, so don’t deserve to be regarded as bellwethers anymore— if they ever did.

[Cha]

42. I much prefer that Biden has 8 years of excellent

experience as a valued Vice President under President Obama.

And, he's the best one to beat trump and that is Priceless!

emmaverybo

[emmaverybo]

43. Yes, there is that little item on his resume, not the winner of 23 primaries, but a heartbeat

away from the presidency for eight years, during which time he gave such impressive service to Obama (and the country) that our best-loved president awarded him the Presidential Medal of Freedom with distinction.

[Cha]

45. Well put! I like what you you

said about ".. a heartbeat away from the Presidency.." That certainly does put it in perspective and President Obama knew that, too.. he chose his VP wisely and was not disappointed.. Obama would not have awarded him the Presidential Medal of Freedom with Distinction if he did not think Joe Biden had earned it.

[Cha]

41. Biden has much better experience and more qualifications

to be President than BS.

That's what counts.. and Biden is by far the better candidate to beat trump.. and that's another thing that counts the most.

[Cha]

40. So?.. since then as you may have heard he's

been a valued Vice President under President Obama and accrued years of excellent, invaluable experience, and qualifications to be President.

[George II]

50. He's never lost a single primary, either.

[treestar]

57. Not logically relevant

in any given election, the people running are different. One could equally say Bernie lost once, why wouldn't he lose again.

[beachbumbob]

53. the narrative by the power elitist must take Biden out, that includes 95% of the media

[Gothmog]

54. From Nate Silver

Link to tweet

[Peacetrain]

55. Yep..Biden is solid.. and growing.

though it does get under some peoples skin.. it just is.. and I am happy about it

[Hortensis]

56. Yes. Pushing this "collapse" theme is an agenda identifier for most.

Sure, some honest sources feel they have to use it in headlines because it is prevailing, but all who don't follow that with honest coverage we know by their actions. At best venal, but most are trying to keep Republicans in power and make money.

And, of course, there are the LW radicals and scorpions who prefer to lose everything rather than allow mainstream liberal Democrats to win.

[oasis]

62. Joe will keep on keeping on. nt