NYT: Democrats in Battleground States Prefer Moderate Nominee, Poll Shows (Biden leads in 5 of 6)

[highplainsdem]

This is the same Siena/NYT poll that last week showed Warren ahead in Iowa. Here are the results for the other 6 states, with Warren leading by 2 points in WI and Biden leading by 9 points in AZ, 8 in FL, 9 in MI, 14 in NC, and 12 in PA.


https://www.nytimes.com/2019/11/08/us/politics/democrats-poll-moderates-battleground.html

WASHINGTON — Democrats in the country’s most pivotal general election battlegrounds prefer a moderate presidential nominee who would seek common ground with Republicans rather than pursue an ambitious, progressive agenda, according to a New York Times/Siena College poll of primary voters across six states.

As the Democratic candidates intensify their argument over how best to defeat President Trump, their core voters in Michigan, Wisconsin, Pennsylvania, North Carolina, Arizona and Florida are counseling them to pursue a political middle ground.

A majority of those surveyed said they wanted a Democratic nominee who is more moderate than most Democrats, and they overwhelmingly preferred one who would bridge the partisan divide in Washington.

The poll showed a top tier of three candidates in the battleground states: Former Vice President Joseph R. Biden Jr. and Senators Elizabeth Warren and Bernie Sanders. Mr. Biden was leading in five of the six states, while Ms. Warren enjoyed a narrow advantage within the margin of error in Wisconsin, where Mr. Sanders also appeared strong. No other candidate registered in double digits in any of the states surveyed.

While Democrats have unambiguously moved to the left in the decade since President Barack Obama took office, as Republicans eagerly point out, the poll illustrates that the party’s identity is more complex than the opposition and some progressive activists would portray it.

Democratic voters in the six states, each of which Mr. Trump carried three years ago, are split almost equally in how they described themselves ideologically: 49 percent say they are moderate or conservative, while 48 percent indicate they are very liberal or somewhat liberal.

-snip-

Even if you can't log in and see the entire NYT story, you can see the table at the top showing the results for all 6 states.

[highplainsdem]

1. kick

[UncleNoel]

2. This is why Joe will beat Trump lke a drum!

[beachbumbob]

3. what works on the coasts doesn't work in the states that actually elect the presidents.

america is and always will be a center-left country, When we aren't its due to too many sitting on their asses

[Act_of_Reparation]

5. Then why aren't the other moderate candidates polling nearly as well?

If people are generally center-left, why aren't we seeing a normal distribution in these polls?

[Pisces]

6. Name recognition and electability. People are being pragmatic!!

They want Trump gone! They do t want their dream candidate. They want a steady hand who will surround themselves with good people and take advice.

[Act_of_Reparation]

8. Then it isn't a matter of being center-left.

If people are making decisions based on criteria beyond the actual policy positions, then the polls aren't indicative of political alignment.

[highplainsdem]

7. Because Biden has far and away the most impressive resume, and IMO he's also most likable.

FWIW, Buttigieg and Klobuchar and Harris (and O'Rourke, who's still showing up in polls) are also picking up some moderate votes. If you add their poll numbers to Biden's, you'lll see that moderates probably outnumber progressives. There are only two very liberal, far-left candidates running, both very well knlown, divvying up the vote of the left wing of the party.


Even Warren is getting some moderate votes, though I have to wonder how much that is based on people not understanding how extreme some of her plans are, how close she is to Sanders.

[emmaverybo]

11. Biden has not only earned a resume unmatched by any other in the field, but he also

connects with Americans at a deeper emotional level, tapping into our collective national consciousness of who we are and can become.

Where Warren and Sanders frame the battle for the White House in ideological terms, Biden frames it as a spiritual quest, for “the soul of America.” Thus one need not sign on to a particular plan to participate, but rather join together to stand up for an idea, nothing new or bold admittedly, but one that keeps our moral compass working:

America is an idea. An idea stronger than any army, bigger than any ocean, more powerful than any dictator or tyrant. It gives hope to the most desperate people on earth….
The most powerful idea in the history of the world I think beats in the hearts of the people of this country. And it beats in all of us. No matter your race, your ethnicity. No matter your gender identity, your sexual orientation. No matter your faith. It beats in the heart of rich and poor alike. It unites America -- whether your ancestors were Native to these shores or they were brought here forcibly and enslaved, whether they were immigrants generations back, like my family from Ireland, or those coming today looking to build a better life for your family.
The American creed – that we are all created equal –was written long-ago. But the genius of every generation of Americans has opened it wider and wider and wider, to include those who have been excluded in a previous generation. That’s why it has never gathered dust in the history books.

Biden wasn’t blind to the shortcomings of our nation and the men who formed it. He talked about them. But he demonstrated that the vision of America was perpetuated by Democratic and Republican presidents alike throughout its history. Ending his speech, Biden slipped off his prepared remarks in an emphatic way. “This is the United States of America! Period! May God protect our troops,” Biden said pounding the podium, ending a speech that everyone knows he believes in his bones. (Capehart)

https://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/2019/08/07/joe-biden-reminded-all-us-what-presidential-president-would-sound-like/
——————————————————————————————

This is an idea about which there is no debate among us, and for which consensus is hard-wired wherever one falls on the political,spectrum. It reaches hearts and minds like no cost analysis chart ever can. Along with doable and progressive and sensible plans, it’s a natural winner, having, like Biden, withstood the test of time.

[Cha]

12. That's easy.. they aren't Joe Biden.

[peggysue2]

4. Interesting to say the least

In addition to Warren, I'm looking at the 'surging' numbers for Buttigieg. Hummm. Methinks this has been horserace stuff for the sake of selling papers and clickbait purposes.

Btw, I think the composition of the Party has always been more complex than ideologues would have us believe, be it coming from the Left or Right.

Thanks for the update!

[Demsrule86]

9. Thanks for this...the other side is confirming the demise of Biden...but we know they are wrong...

He is the most electable Democrat and the only candidate who can win the EC in the states we need. K&R.

[Scurrilous]

10. K&R

[Gothmog]

13. From Nate Silver

Link to tweet

[highplainsdem]

15. Interesting tweets from Nate! Thanks, Gothmog!

[Tarheel_Dem]

14. K&R

[BlueWI]

16. Headline is completely misleading.

Biden is leading in 5 of 6 states, as he should be after 2 terms as Obama's Vice president and 40+ years in politics. But he still doesn't reach a 1/3 share of voters in any of the states mentioned. He's 3rd in Wisconsin.

The other moderates are in single digits. Kloubuchar is near the bottom with Gabbard.

Support for the 2 well-known progressives is hovering around 50% in this poll. So how does that translate into Democrats prefer moderates?

"A plurality of Democrats prefer Biden in 5 of 6 battleground states" would be a more accurate headline.