Tuesday, March 3, 2020

[MineralMan]

Alabama
Arkansas
California
Colorado
Democrats Abroad
Maine
Massachusetts
Minnesota
North Carolina
Oklahoma
Tennessee
Texas
Utah
Vermont
Virginia

[Funtatlaguy]

1. This day is the Super Bowl.

[George II]

2. Including the first four states, 40% of ALL pledged delegates will be chosen by March 3:

Iowa, NH, Nevada, South Carolina = 155
March 3 states = 1352

Total pledged delegates overall = 3768

[MineralMan]

3. Yup.

It's going to be a huge event in the 2020 election cycle.

Thanks for adding the actual numbers to the thread!

[George II]

9. Big day, probably a disqualifying day for many who remain at that time. BTW, the numbers....

....are as of today, the DNC is still adjusting the delegate counts, they may go up or down a few here and there.

[MineralMan]

10. Exactly.

[BannonsLiver]

4. Predictionpalooza

Since everyone is doing predictions today including a brokered convention, here are my picks for the winners on Super Tuesday. They’re based on gut instinct and literally nothing of any real substance. I have no idea, really. Also I purposely did not delve into proportional delegate allotment.


Alabama: Biden
Arkansas: Biden
California: Warren
Colorado: Biden
Democrats Abroad: Bernie
Maine: Biden
Massachusetts: Warren
Minnesota: Biden
North Carolina: Biden
Oklahoma: Warren
Tennessee: Biden
Texas: Biden
Utah: Biden
Vermont: Bernie
Virginia: Biden

[MineralMan]

5. I'm trying not to predict anything.

Too early and too iffy, it seems to me.

However, on March 4, 2020, we're going to have a very, very good idea who the Democratic nominee will be. That much I'll predict.

[BannonsLiver]

6. Well I presume I won't be struck down if I'm wrong

So no real harm in throwing out a few silly predictions. The trouble starts when people become enraged when others disagree with their predictions. I’m not invested enough in my post to care that much. But you are mostly correct in that it’s still too early.

[MineralMan]

7. No, you won't be "struck down."

You might be swung at, though.

[Thekaspervote]

8. Yes we will!

[George II]

11. What's key is by how much those candidates win and by how much the others lose.....

There's still a lot up for grabs - let's say (hypothetically) that Warren wins California by a vote of 40% to 35% for Biden and 25% for Harris. That would result in 166 for Warren, 146 for Biden, and 104 for Harris. On the other hand, it's possible that Biden might win South Carolina (a week or two earlier) with all others under 15%. That would give him 54 delegates, and the overall lead.

Winning individual states is cosmetic, by how much is more important.

[Gothmog]

12. I will be busy that day

[MineralMan]

13. Yeah, me too.