New poll reveals Warren strongest declared candidate against Trump as 'Uncle Joe' struggles

[NewsCenter28]

Son. Warren surges ahead of Trump 45-39 while Biden is the weakest candidate locked in a narrow 4 point lead over the unmentionable. Link here:

https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/

So much for Joe being stronger in the GE! He's the weakest!

[vsrazdem]

1. Get ready 3-2-1: but she can't win the general. LOL

[SterlingPound]

3. It seems like no woman can in America

[emmaverybo]

8. Not Warren, whose own economist says her M4All in the context of her other plans, over 30 hugely

expensive ones, can not be funded without raising taxes on middle class.

[BlueWI]

22. Sounds like a pro-Proposituon 13 talking point.

Grover Nordquist wants his "tax-and-spend liberal" talking points back.

[emmaverybo]

28. Her economist said it. Read all the proposals, many of which would benefit well to do people

and certainly end up siphoning money from the many social services and programs already at risk, underfunded, in need of additional investment.

Her wealth tax as proposed would not cover all these additional programs. A wealth tax is not likely to pass and will be challenged as unconstitutional, trying it up for years in litigation.

[BlueWI]

85. Any plan to cover uninsured and underinsured people

has a price tag in taxes. It's doubtful that we'll grow our way out of a trillion dollar annual budget deficit, and all of the Democrats have proposals on the table that will cost over and above current tax collections.

The Grover Nordquist tricks are to associate taxation with liberals exclusively, to minimize discussion of cost vs. benefits, and in this case, to shift a thread from its original OP to the 24/7 talking points with the phrase "middle class taxes" prominently underlined.

I get being against MFA. But if universal coverage is the standard, tax hikes are unavoidable, especially when we're already facing a ballooning deficit.

[flying_wahini]

26. Or so 'they' say...

And Hillary was supposed to be ‘the end of Democracy’.


And I am supposed to worry about holding onto my private insurance co?
They charge an arm and a leg every month with high deductibles; each person covered it is $8000 apiece.
I would gladly pay into a Medicare for all just to fuck with the insurance companies.

[emmaverybo]

34. YOU would, Many support M4All, for exactly that reason--to undermine and hopefully abolish

private insurance. Unfortunately, we could lose the election because at least eighty million people don’t agree. Many of these feel they earned their private insurance, and get a great deal at an
affordable rate or even have premiums and Medicare fee paid out of retirement benefits they already paid into.

You can not shame them into feeling otherwise.

But whatever happens, M4All is a pipe-dream now, which if it miraculously is passed will not be implemented for years.

So in the meantime, other than abolishing, how do progressives propose to protect what we have,
Medicare, Medicaid, fix Obamacare, and regulate private insurance?

[SterlingPound]

75. So in reality Continue to do Nothing

But badmouth Dems and m4a

[emmaverybo]

77. I am talking about doing something about our current system regardless of the fate of

M4All in that it would not be implemented until some years from the time a proponent would win the 2020 election. I agree that we must fix and improve our healthcare system.

I don’t agree that M4All is the only or best way to do that. But nonetheless, Republicans have been dismantling ACA and are determined to go after Medicaid and Medicare. Obviously, private insurance needs more and better regulation. So I would like to know what all candidates propose we do when a Democratic president takes office to protect and improve current delivery systems.

I am critical of the idea that our choice is between doing nothing or M4All.

[LongtimeAZDem]

13. National polls mean very little; it's all about the battleground states

[vsrazdem]

19. Well, we didn't do so well with that logic last time.

[LongtimeAZDem]

20. I'm on record; I hold your preferred candidate significantly responsible for that

[vsrazdem]

21. Oh yes, some candidates shouldn't be allowed to win primary battleground states. Really?

[StevieM]

24. He shouldn't have run against he like she was Joe Lieberman.

There is nothing in HRC's record, or either of her campaigns, then made her worthy of being treated like she was Lieberman.

[LongtimeAZDem]

25. Not at all what I'm talking about

[StevieM]

23. We were kicking Trump's ass the last time, until Comey intervened.

Actually, we were kicking Trump's ass even after the first two times that Comey intervened. That is how much better of a campaign our candidate ran then Trump did.

But Comey was never going to stop interfering until he got the job done for the GOP. Which, of course, is very ironic given how they turned on him after he delivered the election to them, so that they could cover up how he delivered the election to them.

[BlueMTexpat]

65. Even WITH Comey, we

still could have won.

But the Russian bots and anti-Clinton propaganda were everywhere. Stein voters, other third-party voters and non-voters also didn't help.

Comey was just the cherry on top.

But yes, I certainly include him high on my list of those to excoriate personally.

[StevieM]

73. I think you are underestimating Comey's influence.

He was a lot more than just a cherry on top.

He dominated that election from start to finish. And he completely redefined her as a public servant and as a human being.

[BlueMTexpat]

86. Possibly.

But whatever his part, she certainly did not deserve ANY of the treatment that she received.

[Amimnoch]

76. Actually, the results lined up very well with matchup polls in battlegrounds.

Leading right up to it:

In Pennsylvania, the results were 100% within the margin of error:
https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2016/president/pa/pennsylvania_trump_vs_clinton-5633.html

Michigan was right there:
https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2016/president/mi/michigan_trump_vs_clinton-5533.html

Wisconsin was definitely off, facts can't argue there:
https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2016/president/wi/wisconsin_trump_vs_clinton-5659.html

Ohio was spot on, and Ohio is both almost always accurate, and since JFK Ohio has backed every president that took office:
https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2016/president/oh/ohio_trump_vs_clinton-5634.html#!

Agree with it or not, like it or not, this election, just like all of them, the next presidency will not be determined by the popular vote. Battleground states WILL determine who wins. Even if Wisconsin was inaccurate leading up, these battleground state polls are the only and best indicator that we have to make INFORMED decisions by. As of last week, and the 2 months prior running, Joe polls better in battleground states than any of the other frontrunners.

https://www.democraticunderground.com/1287334724

[vsrazdem]

79. Except for the fact that she didn't win all those in the primary.

[Amimnoch]

80. With the exception of Wisconsin, all were within the MOE.

You do know how polls work, right?

[vsrazdem]

82. Yes, and you would think if you don't win certain battleground states in the primary, you should

work extra hard to win them in the general, like Michigan and Wisconsin.

[StevieM]

87. She spent more money in WI and MI than Obama did in 2012.

And she had larger ground games in those states than Obama did in 2012.

She did make a few appearances in Michigan, along with others by Bill Clinton, Tim Kaine and Barack Obama. That was more than she made in some other battle ground states.

It is true that she didn't hold any rallies in Wisconsin after the primaries were over. That is not uncommon for a candidate leading in that state by double digits. When Trump finally thought he could win, due to the Comey intervention, the first thing he did was cancel an appearance in Wisconsin.

Of course, winning Wisconsin would not have changed the outcome of the election. And she was never going to lose WI while winning PA and MI. Those states all moved together, in response to Comey, along with Florida, North Carolina and Arizona.

[vsrazdem]

88. Well that may be, but the DNC was warned ahead of time by Dingle that things were not looking good

in Michican and they should do more. It was too little too late. I hope we have learned our lesson from 2016 not to take any states for granted, battleground or not.

[StevieM]

90. We did not take these states for granted.

We had enormous ground operations and lots of ads on the airwaves.

And a politician worrying about his or her home state, and whether the opposition is showing signs of strength, is par for the course. They always want more to be done on their turf.

Doing more in Michigan or Wisconsin would not have affected the outcome in those states. Comey not pulling his little stunt would have affected the outcome.

The goal of this analysis is not to change our future behavior, but rather to allow people to enjoy belittling Hillary and her campaign.

[vsrazdem]

91. No, the defintely took Michigan for granted. It was more important to stay in Iowa, which was a big

mistake. Ground game and airwaves are great, but the candidates have to put in appearances, or people think you don't care.

[StevieM]

93. She did make appearances in Michigan.

And as for Iowa, she had made commitments to have a certain level of ground operation there. They were as entitled to their ground game as every other state, especially for the sake of the down ballot candidates.

If she had pulled them out, she still would have lost. And the media would have excoriated her for her "arrogance" and her "selfishness" in thinking the whole election was all about her.

[OldRed2450]

2. I don't see that at all from that poll.

[Hav]

4. Here we go again

Constructing stories out of statistical noise because that noise coupled with Biden's double digit lead in the same poll over the other closest Dem candidates means he's struggling. Hilarious.

[peggysue2]

27. LOL!!

Maybe the OP was going for comedy.

Just goes on and on and on.

[emmaverybo]

5. You do not mention Bloomberg. He also in that day's poll, with an MOE of 3 points, runs 6 pts,

ahead of Trump. So same as Warren. But I wouldn’t call his chances good and I wouldn't support him
in the primaries.

[LongtimeAZDem]

6. That poll also has Bloomberg at 43-37 or +6 llke Warren; meanwhile, Biden is at +4 in a poll

with a 3% MOE.

So, you might not want to pop the champagne just yet.

[boomer_wv]

71. Serious cherry picking here.

OP just wants to strut that 1 poll showed Warren doing slightly better in the general. Nevermind the hoard of battelground polls out last week where Biden was in much better position in all of them than Warren.

Besides that, Warren will be toxic in a general election. Swing voters aren't going to vote for socialism, and since Warren thinks she's smarter than everyone else, she won't understand that her ideas aren't the best ideas and will keep doubling down on them.

[Kurt V.]

7. oh yeah!

[Thekaspervote]

9. Ummm?? Don't think so

@JoeBiden: whoopin' Trump, holding Midwestern Blue Wall SOLID! Stronger than the other two in EVERY SINGLE STATE.

EC votes: Biden 291, Sanders: 243, now WEAKER than Clinton at this point in 2015!

Warren: Way under 270 at just 223! WEAKEST of the three in EVERY SINGLE STATE!

@NateSilver538 several other polls out today, but as of right now, Biden has led in 10 national polls (Harris, ABC/Post, YouGov, Morning Consult, Suffolk, McLaughlin, Emerson, CNN, Ipsos, SurveyUSA) and Warren just 1 (Quinnipiac) since Oct. 15. projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2020-primaries…

[pnwmom]

10. Which poll?

[beastie boy]

11. I don't think bringing attention to Warren's tie with an undeclared candidate is such a great idea.

The poll you linked to shows Bloomberg and Warren tied at +6 against Trump. This makes the "strongest declared candidate" claim a bit comical.

But rest assured, I will add your post to the long list of Biden obituaries I regularly come across on DU.

[Thekaspervote]

15. False Obit list now up to 1000+ ?

I’ve stopped running to the mall for a black dress. In fact, I took them all back!

[beastie boy]

17. And getting funnier... i mean longer with each day.

Just imagine, not too long ago I took those posts seriously!

[Cha]

63. I too lol@ your "false obit list"..

Mahalo, beastieboy!

And, Biden is not "Uncle Joe".. he's the former Vice President of the United States of America

[beastie boy]

67. Aloha, Cha!

Who said there is no humor in politics?

[Cha]

68. I hadn't heard that.. there's

plenty round here. lol

[NycMarv]

12. Good

I prefer Warren over Joe.

[gopiscrap]

94. welcome to DU

[OldRed2450]

14. I don't think you posted the right poll for your headline.

Link to tweet

[Thekaspervote]

16. Oh the voice of sanity!! THX

[Hav]

18. (Edited title after misunderstanding)

The OP is concentrating on the hypothetical general election matchups where all the results are within the margin of error. This thread is just a sloppy conclusion from these results and it also requires you to ignore their primary poll.

[NewsCenter28]

29. I am fully aware of what I posted here

And stand by my conclusions. I would argue that the constant focus on Ukrainegate isn't just going to lead to Toad's possible removal but possibly a fundamental re-shifting of the Dem primary decks as the GOP takes Biden's ship down with them. The fact that Warren is now besting all other Dems in GE matchups should not be ignored and hopefully once people realize Biden is not nearly as electable as he appears, the national horse race (as evidenced by Biden's huge lead in the primary race in the same poll) will begin to reflect that reality. Biden is only leading since people have this fantasy he is invincible. His campaign for the dem nomination has been one of the worst, least inspired, milquetoast I've ever seen! I saw the catastrophic campaigner and debater he is and did a complete 180 in my view of him.

Worth noting Liz is in excellent position to win BOTH IA and NH, which is most likely the ballgame right there!

[Demsrule86]

31. I posted the polls below...Biden is leading.

[Demsrule86]

32. The trouble is she is not besting Trump in GE polls. Biden is...These are approval/disapproval

figures...of course she is beating Trump...everyone will...however this does not show what you say it does.

[Hav]

36. You may stand by what you said but it remains a sloppy and wrong conclusion

based on an ignorance of statistics. This poll does not show that Warren is besting all other Dems in the GE matchups. And then even calling that assumption a fact shows a basic misunderstanding of polls.

[Thekaspervote]

42. IA and NH, small, very white do not reflect the country as a whole

EW polls very poorly with the AA voters. No dem has ever won a primary or GE without them

She also polls poorly in the rust belt. If Biden is the nominee AZ, TX, and FL are in play as well. Not so with EW or sanders
Democratic Primary In

AZ:
Biden 24
Sanders 16
Warren 15

FL:
Biden 27
Warren 19
Sanders 17

MI:
Biden 30
Warren 21
Sanders 17

NC:
Biden 29
Warren 19
Sanders 13

PA:
Biden 28
Warren 16
Sanders 14

WI:
Warren 25
Biden 23
Sanders 20

@SienaResearch/@nytimes
nytimes.com/2019/11/08/us/…


Nate Silver
@NateSilver538
You'd think, if anything, the lesson "don't be dismissive of a candidate who maintains a polling lead for months with a working-class coalition despite constant predictions of his demise from Acela corridor elites" would have been *overlearned*. But, nope, same shit as last time.

[emulatorloo]

69. Smearing Biden over Trump's Ukraine lies? No thanks n/t

[Demsrule86]

72. Your 'poll' shows just the opposite...and by adding the Ukraine lies to the mix, you bring right

wing talking points into the debate...I think this is shameful and so not worth it in the larger picture...I am sure you think this helps Warren but it does not. And you hurt the party not matter what, and the nominee should Biden win the nomination which is quite likely.

[Demsrule86]

30. Explain how you get this from the polls at your link...and maybe consider revising this post.

[NewsCenter28]

33. See post above Dem

In your very link, Warren leads 45-39. Joe has just a 44-40 lead. The weakest in the GE matchups Morning Consult tested. National primary polls are irrelevant. Early states will shake that up.

My point is that everyone's supporting Joe because they think Toad has no chance over him. I was in that camp myself until I've seen the absolutely horrendous debate and campaign performance he's put in thus far

[emmaverybo]

39. Approval vs. Disapproval is what is being measured. Unless Warren's numbers were way outside

MOE in exceeding competitors, does not tell us much. Certainly does not support your claim.

[Fiendish Thingy]

57. You are wrong - it's two different questions

Question 1: Trump's approval/disapproval rating

Question 2: various head to head match ups of the Dem candidates vs Trump

[emmaverybo]

59. OK. Fair enough. Let's see if she picks up considerably in national polls, with AA electorate, and

in states that matter. She hasn’t come close to catching Biden there and I think you are still
over-extrapolating from a poll she is only a few points ahead in on a hypothetical, a poll with an
MOE of 3 points. It does not help Warren to exaggerate signs of her becoming the lead candidate or jumping to defeating Trump.

[Demsrule86]

40. You can't be serious. That is your evidence for Warren leading...approval /disapproval.

Not the same thing at all. Look I get that you want your candidate to win...but this poll doesn't show this.

[Thekaspervote]

44. That's your opinion

[beastie boy]

49. Actually, your point is right there, in the OP

"So much for Joe being stronger in the GE! He's the weakest!" A breathtakingly sweeping statement. Based on a single poll of your choosing. Within margin of error of the leaders.

That statement needs a lot more walking back than you are attempting here in order to make sense.

[NewsCenter28]

35. I'm just thinking ahead

Dem. If Joe runs the campaign he's run for the democratic nomination so far against Mr. Toad, we're screwed. Dukasis led Bush by 17 points remember.

FYI, Liz has a lead over Dotard in the ABC and Morning Consult GE tests.

[Demsrule86]

46. It is a different world...and Warren is doing worse than Biden in most polls...and there are 8

candidates or maybe one dropped out can't remember. you can't compare elections 30 years ago with today. Biden will win the states we need...now maybe you would prefer Warren...but I don't think she will win a general... this approval disapproval poll above shows nothing that changes my mind...and I think Biden is doing fine. But believe me I get it. I adored Howard Dean. I still do, but I supported Kerry 100%. The world would be a better place if Bush had been defeated. I don't feel Kerry got the support he deserved from us. Time will tell who the nominee will be...and we all need to support whoever it is.

[Thekaspervote]

47. NYT/sienna poll

Voters that will decide the 2020 race support Biden over the president, 38% to 27%, but prefer the president to Warren, 37% to 20%. Sanders is in between, with the president leading him, 34% to 32%. This group voted for Trump by a smaller margin in 2016, 37% to 30%, with the rest casting ballots for minor candidates.

They support Biden over the president, 38% to 27%, but prefer the president to Warren, 37% to 20%. Sanders is in between, with the president leading him, 34% to 32%. This group voted for Trump by a smaller margin in 2016, 37% to 30%, with the rest casting ballots for minor candidates.

More at the link if you want

https://www.yahoo.com/news/meet-swing-voters-might-decide-193019533.html

[Indykatie]

37. Your Take on a Single Poll With all 4 Top Candidates Beating Trump Equally Based on MOE is Funny

I understanding spinning poll results for a favorite candidate but a 2 point difference in one poll isn't all that. No doubt there will be polls released tomorrow that shows Biden with a larger lead over Trump. It's why people look at trends and averages rather than 1 poll from a B/C rated pollster.

[mzmolly]

38. I'm more moved by state polling

as the electoral college will decide the election, sadly.

[evertonfc]

41. lol. Warren

Any of our candidates will get more votes than Trump. Biden, clearly, is best to expand the map and with rare exception, every poll shows it. Biden can win in Florida and Arizona. Warren, in my opinion, can't. I'm much much more liberal than Biden but after talking to operatives in Florida and throughout the southeast- I'm voting for the only candidate the Trump campaign is scared of. It's Biden.

[Prosper]

43. VP Biden is a good guy but all he has offered so far is

reassurance to the people doing well that he won’t rock the boat. Hillary lost offering more spending twice as much. Trump won with lots of good paying jobs and make America great again. Half the people in this country can’t have a major medical procedure or even think about paying for college. I’ll campaign and vote for Biden or any Democratic. Im from a working class family. I paid for my college by what I made during the summer working for Wheeling Steel. Now Kids from working class families finish college owing tens of thousands or 100K+ dollars. Paying back student loans I’ll bet some of them have less than minimum wage to live on. Healthcare, education, student loan debt, childcare, wages....... are what should be brought up every time a candidate speaks.

[emmaverybo]

50. And how, when our safety net is threatened, so many EXISTING social programs and services across

the nation are underfunded, at risk of cuts and total privatization, progressives can talk about cutting 95 percent of student debt (for a guesstimate of 50 percent millennials who can afford to pay), I don’t know, except to be able to say a plan is new. There are many less costly ways to relieve low wage earners with no prospect of substantial,higher earnings of their debt than to do an enormous across the boards amnesty program.

Childcare should be subsidized for low income workers. A universal system could work on a sliding scale, but why should a lower paid worker pitch in for a lawyer and doctor?

Prioritizing is a sign of leadership, Right now, without a suggestion for protecting and fixing existing services, and shoring up our social safety net, progressive candidates suggest trillions of new investments, ignoring record high deficits we will leave the next generation, new costs we must incur if we are to have a fair asylum system. and common sense about political realities.

[democratisphere]

45. BS.

BS.

[Thekaspervote]

48. Repeating that

[democratisphere]

56. My stutter.

[George II]

51. In case no one noticed, "Uncle Joe" isn't struggling....

....that's just "wishful thinking" (not by you) or the hopes of generating 538 clicks or traffic on their site.

[Thekaspervote]

53. No.. he isn't with a rash a new polls showing him besting his leads or retaking leads

And 5.3 mil from small donors in October

If that’s struggling I sure hope it continues!!

[Demsrule86]

55. I know...Biden is doing great but hey I hear Mayor Pete is surging now.

I wonder who will be next.

[Fiendish Thingy]

52. There you go, bursting the bubble of the inevitability/electability mythology nt

[Demsrule86]

54. Did you look at the one poll? Measure approval and disapproval...having supported candidates who

did not get the nomination...I actually feel bad for some.

[Gothmog]

58. I strongly disagree

I and others have been working very hard to turn Texas blue. We flipped 12 state house seats and 2 congressional seats. We need 9 more house seats to flip control of the Texas House and we are targeting 19 seats. The DCCC is targeting 6 congressional districts. If Warren is the nominee, we can kiss the seats won by Colin Allred and Lizzie Fletcher goodbye and we will not pick up any other seats. Warren would kill down ballot candidates in Texas

If Biden is so weak, then why did trump break the law to try to get dirt on Joe??

[samnsara]

60. hes the only one who makes me feel safe and secure from day 1...

[pansypoo53219]

61. hunter is biden's e-mails.

[highplainsdem]

62. LOL! That particular poll is a fluke. That's a Morning Consult poll, and their last poll 10 days

ago had Biden beating Trump by 5 points while Warren lost to him by 1 point.

https://morningconsult.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/10/191058_crosstabs_POLITICO_RVs_v2_JB.pdf


I don't for one second believe there's been that much of a change in a week and a half.

And the other GE polls that have been done almost all show Biden doing better against Trump than Warren does.

Btw, in that new Morning Consult poll, the four Democratic candidates polled are basically in a statistical tie in terms of who'll beat Trump. Only a two point difference between them, half the "narrow" lead you said Biden has over Trump.

The 6-point difference MC found last week between how well Biden does against Trump and how well Warren does against him was statistically significant.

[gulliver]

64. "Uncle Joe" is ageism and should be banned from DU.

[Cha]

66. Idon't like it.. It's silly.. Joe Biden is the former Vice President of

The United States of America.. not our "uncle".

[emmaverybo]

78. Yes. An ageist and patronizing insult embedded in the OP. Joe Biden is the former, highly

accomplished VP to President Obama! Obama certainly respected him, entrusting him with some of the most significant duties on behalf of the administration from negotiations in post-war Iraq to gun control legislation. He was no “Uncle Joe” when a heartbeat away from the presidency.

[nini]

89. I call him that because I love him

When I say it it's sincere, but I see your point and have seen it used in a less than flattering way.

[gulliver]

92. Thanks, but you have to ask with any name used, "Would the person called that name appreciate it?"

If the answer is no, then the name can't be used by those who are friendly to the person.

[Gothmog]

74. Warren is the weakest general election candidate in the real world

Link to tweet

[Gothmog]

81. Biden is leading in latest Q poll in NH due to electability

Link to tweet

Nearly one-third (32 percent) of New Hampshire likely Democratic primary voters say the most important candidate quality in deciding who to vote for is "someone who can win the general election," followed by "honesty" at 24 percent, "someone who cares about people like you" at 18 percent, "good leadership skills" at 14 percent, and only 7 percent saying "experience in public office."

Perceived electability is helping Biden, as he leads the primary with 31 percent of the vote among those who say that electability is the most important candidate quality to them. Warren gets 20 percent of these "electability" voters, while Buttigieg receives 19 percent, and Sanders gets 6 percent.

[Demsrule86]

83. I saw that...in Warren's own backyard yet.

[LAS14]

84. We still need a lot more "against Trump" polls from swing states. nt

[Gothmog]

95. Joe Biden is the most electable candidate that the Democratic Party has available

Link to tweet