November 11, 2019 New Hampshire -Quinnipiac Poll

[OKNancy]

Biden 20%
Warren 16%
Buttigieg 15%
Sanders 14%
Gabbard 6%
Yang 4%
Klobuchar 3%
Steyer 3%

https://poll.qu.edu/new-hampshire/release-detail?ReleaseID=3648

[Demsrule86]

1. Holy shit! Biden is rising. And that is a good thing as he can win a general. And Warren should be

doing way better in such a close state as New Hampshire.

[Demsrule86]

2. Thanks and K&R

[CaliforniaPeggy]

3. I like the look of this poll!

Now, I know it's only a snapshot of right now! But it's encouraging.

I didn't see the margin of error. Did they show it?

[Demsrule86]

4. I didn't see a MOE.

[Demsrule86]

5. Found it on the website...

"From November 6 - 10, Quinnipiac University surveyed 1,134 New Hampshire likely Democratic primary voters with a margin of error of +/- 3.8 percentage points, including the design effect. The question on Michael Bloomberg was added on November 8 and was asked of 636 New Hampshire likely Democratic primary voters with a margin of error of +/- 5 percentage points, including the design effect."

[CaliforniaPeggy]

10. Thanks so much! That's very helpful.

[Demsrule86]

11. My pleasure.

[OKNancy]

6. I wondered about Gabbard's numbers - Nate Silver info

Link to tweet

[scheming daemons]

7. Interesting breakdown

Moderate candidates (Biden, Buttigieg, Klobuchar): 38%

Socialist/socialist-lite candidates (Warren, Sanders, Yang): 34%

Russian candidates: 6%

[flotsam]

12. Pretty BS breakdown

As Warren has declared herself a capitalist and I have never seen Yang identify himself as a socialist. Also the "Russian" candidate is a smear. Sanders has sometimes referred to himself as a democratic socialist but never as just a socialist. So your post is actually a broad brush smear that claims you can be either what you label a moderate or a socialist. If I were petty I would have alerted instead of merely pointing out you present a false dichotomy.

[scheming daemons]

15. Well...

- Bernie has called himself a socialist, and is proud of it. That's not a negative thing.

- Liz and Yang are "socialist-lite", and that's not a smear. It is a description of their plans, many of which I agree with. Yang's $1000/month giveaway plan to every American is socialist, by definition. That doesn't mean it isn't a good idea, but that's what it is. Liz's free college for everyone and forgiveness of college loans is socialist, by definition. Again.... not a bad thing, necessarily.

- As for the "Russian" comment, you got me there. That is a smear. But it is a deserved one. If you want to alert me for that, I understand.

[flotsam]

17. Nah

I'd eat broken glass before I would alert on a discussion. Actually Bernie may have said socialist but described himself more often as a democratic socialist both of which are true but for reasons surpassing understanding only one causes outrage. I understand you have doubt about Yang and UBI, yet I'm not sure he is wrong. My actual dispute is this-you declare that Warren-who identifies specifically as a capitalist is either-you know-that bad title OR the bad title light. It assumes that if you believe that in capitalism it must be unbridled rather than directed toward societal good. I believe there is a balance which has been achieved elsewhere that allows both free market success and societal balance. When the crazy screamer has a home and three hot meals, well. them you have won.

[Gothmog]

8. Electability was a key element for Biden

Link to tweet

Nearly one-third (32 percent) of New Hampshire likely Democratic primary voters say the most important candidate quality in deciding who to vote for is "someone who can win the general election," followed by "honesty" at 24 percent, "someone who cares about people like you" at 18 percent, "good leadership skills" at 14 percent, and only 7 percent saying "experience in public office."

Perceived electability is helping Biden, as he leads the primary with 31 percent of the vote among those who say that electability is the most important candidate quality to them. Warren gets 20 percent of these "electability" voters, while Buttigieg receives 19 percent, and Sanders gets 6 percent.

[Cha]

16. Gracias Goth!

[Scurrilous]

9. K&R

[Celerity]

13. Gabbard is now 1 poll away (and can get it two different ways) from qualifying for December as well

she will easily meet the individual donor threshold, she has shot up by 20,000 in just the past few weeks

[boomer_wv]

14. few tidbits

from the tabs.

Only 29% of Warren voters are sure they will vote for her. Biden see that rise to 43%, and Sanders leads with certainty at 57%.

I find it interesting also that Honesty is now the 2nd highest trait voters are looking for behind electability. This might explain Warrens decline given the attacks she has taken on her honesty regarding her healthcare plan. There hasn't been another Hew Hampshire poll from Q, but other quality pollsters had her at over 30% in the past couple months during her peak.

This should also put some serious questions in place regarding the narrative that Biden isn't going to compete in NH. Given the polls that have been released in the past week, there is a definite chance that Biden could actually win both Iowa and NH, which would essentially end the race, IMO.

[Demsrule86]

18. That would be awesome...the sooner we turn our ire towards Trump and not each other the better.