Democratic Primaries
Related: About this forumIf someone has to be talked into running for president, then that tells me they're not in it to win
By all accounts, it looks like Patrick was pushed early and declined, not wanting to run. IF he had to be prodded to announce only a few months before the Iowa Caucus, how convinced should we be he has the energy and dedication needed to actually run against Trump?
Joe Biden passed on running in 2016. Maybe he didn't think he'd win, or maybe he was talked out of it by people around him, but it's clear, this go around, he's fully invested in his campaign - as is Warren, Sanders, Mayor Pete and Harris. None of them had to be talked into running and it feels kind of presumptuous of these late-entering candidates to jump in after months and months of campaigning, debates and other events by a fairly crowded field.
Maybe I'm being a contrarian for contrarian's sake, because I do like Patrick, but it feels like if he truly wanted to run, he would have, you know, announced much earlier and not held off until literally the fourth quarter of the pre-primary slate.
I'd also put out there that, at least recently (since primary campaigning has changed dramatically over the course of the last 20 years), that jumping in late has not boded well for the candidate.
Rick Perry, in 2011, was the last major GOP candidate to announce (in August) after hemming and hawing about running...and, despite an initial surge in polls, he petered out pretty dang quickly.
Fred Thompson, in 2007, was the last major GOP candidate to announce (in June) after kicking around the idea ... and his campaign petered out pretty quickly.
Wes Clark, in 2003, was the last major Democratic candidate to announce (in September) after a draft movement and, while Clark initially rose to front-runner status, his campaign struggled out of the actual voting gate.
These campaigns struggled because, for months, other campaigns had invested time, money and energy into ground game infrastructure in the two early primary states. In many instances, these new candidates outright skipped Iowa, and sometimes New Hampshire, to focus on later primary states. Each time it failed.
It failed because momentum wasn't there coming out of the two major first elections and they lost traction because of it.
We've already heard Bloomberg is forgoing Iowa, New Hampshire, Nevada and South Carolina to focus on the Super Tuesday states, and while he has the money to stay in this race a long time, he doesn't likely have the momentum to gain traction.
I don't see that being any different from Patrick.
Maybe, had he announced back in spring, I would be more inclined to see him a a viable option. But now? Nah.
primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden
Eliot Rosewater
(31,097 posts)primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden
maxsolomon
(32,977 posts)Including several of the front runners.
primary today, I would vote for: Undecided