Silver: There's a quite plausible scenario where 1st 3 states "a mess," then Biden takes a big lead

[highplainsdem]

Tweet from Nate Silver a couple of hours ago, after some new North Carolina primary polls came out:

Link to tweet

North Carolina is one of the bigger/more important Super Tuesday states, and a bunch of polling shows Biden with a clear lead there. There's a quite plausible scenario where the first 3 states are a mess, then Biden takes a big lead after SC/Super Tuesday. https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2020-primaries/democratic/north-carolina/ …

[George II]

1. It's very possible that for the first three states there's close to a 3-way tie....

....then Biden can win almost all the South Carolina delegates.

[ritapria]

4. Biden needs a close 3rd place in IA and NH to win nomination

If, for example , the top 2 candidates get 28% and 26% and Joe gets 23% he's still in good shape to win the nomination ……… If Bernie and Liz are stuck in DC for most of January , it shouldn't hard to meet those expectations

[George II]

7. There are approximately 4,000 delegates. Iowa has 41, New Hampshire 24....

That's 65, only 1.6% of all the delegates available. A candidate can get zero in those two states and still would be 98.4% remaining.

[ritapria]

8. It is all about the media narrative

Iowa and NH are a big deal because the media make them a big deal …..It is not logical, I will grant you that ...The first 2 contests should include states with more people of color …...

[George II]

10. Or more people, period. Although it's perceived that IA and NH are important (white as they are)....

...they really aren't all that important overall.

In the last 12 election cycles (since 1972), not including three incumbents, only two ultimate nominees have won both (Gore and Kerry), only five winners of Iowa won the nomination (Mondale, Gore, Kerry, Obama, and Clinton). Only four winners of New Hampshire have won the nomination (Carter, Dukakis, Gore, and Kerry)

So at best less than half of the winners of either state has gone on to win the nomination.

[boomer_wv]

15. Everyone is right.

The delegates won in NH and IA are irrelevant overall, but media coverage stemming from there will be important.

However, the results are completely depended on expectations. For example, if the election were held today and the final result was Warren 28, Pete, 26, and Biden 25, that would be a finish that people expected and there probably wouldn't be much of narrative coming from it. Headline would be something like "Race tight after Iowa."

However, if we slightly tweek the results to; Biden 28, Pete 26, Warren 25.... well, that's a different story isn't it? The headlines from that would crush Warren for finishing 3rd and Biden would be held up as a presumptive nominee. The difference in both results statistically is insignificant. We shouldn't judge either result as being much different, but it clearly would leave different situations for the primary. All based on expectations.

IMO. If Biden were to finish in the top 2 in both IA and NH....he'd win the nomination.

I just read some tweets from people who believe that Biden has no chance to win either state, and that he'd probably finish atleast 4th in California. Now, we have high quality recent polling showing him ahead double digits in CA, ahead in NH, and 3 points behind Pete for first in IA. Looking at the polls, there is no question that Biden could win all three of those states. Twitter, despite giving you access to the entire world, can be a big echo chamber. If you get a lot of your political information from there, you probably believe that Biden is close to quitting the race. If he were to win IA, a completely possible outcome, I think a lot of people would be absolutely shocked.

[Demsrule86]

20. Wonderful post...very sensible...and I completely agree.

[emmaverybo]

31. Excellent analysis. Enlightening.

[stopdiggin]

39. very good. right on point

and a great illustration of "if ever there was a time when we should NOT be paying the media a lot of attention ..." This would surely be such a time. And yet we obsess ...

[Demsrule86]

21. And consider Bill Clinton never won either.

[George II]

26. Neither did George McGovern in 1972....

....to recap them all:

1972 - McGovern won neither, lost GE
1976 - Carter won one, Carter won GE
1980 - incumbent, Carter lost GE
1984 - Mondale won one, Mondale lost GE
1988 - Dukakis won one, Dukakis lost GE
1992 - Clinton won neither - Clinton won GE
1996 - incumbent, Clinton won GE
2000 - Gore won both, Gore lost* GE
2004 - Kerry won both, Kerry lost* GE
2008 - Obama won one, Obama won GE
2012 - incumbent, Obama won GE
2016 - Clinton won one, Clinton lost* GE

[The Valley Below]

24. Wait...wait...forget about "the nomination."

By your examples:

4/5 Democratic nominees who have won Iowa have lost in the General Election.

And

3/4 Democratic nominees who have won New Hampshire have lost in the General Election.

Maybe these states are not the best barometers of success in the General Election as decided in the Electoral College?

[George II]

28. Excellent point!

[The Valley Below]

30. Couldn't have made it without your excellent post!

[highplainsdem]

41. Oh, hell. If voters' reactions were determined by the media narrative, Biden would never have run,

would never have been the front-runner, and definitely wouldn't still be front-runner.

Voters can make up their own minds.

No matter what the very unrepresentative states of Iowa and New Hampshire do.

[Demsrule86]

22. Bill Clinton won neither state and went on to the nomination and the presidency.

I would submit that was more a big deal then as the Demographics were different.

[BannonsLiver]

23. Is this your first primary?

[George II]

36. All three leading candidates will probably come out with 20 delegates, give or take a few.

That will essentially nullify the "importance" of the first two states. But what's important to note, putting Buttigieg in the mix, that he's a Midwesterner (Iowa), Sanders and Warren are New Englanders (New Hampshire). Biden is the "outsider".

[Gothmog]

32. Biden will do well in South Carolina and the Southern primaries

[Cha]

2. Has Biden even campaigned in North Carolina?

Or are they just remembering him from his Veep days?

[highplainsdem]

5. Yes, he's campaigned there, and he was way ahead in 3rd quarter fundraising there:

http://www.ncpolicywatch.com/2019/11/01/biden-surges-in-n-c-cash-race-among-2020-dems/

[Cha]

6. Thanks, hpd! Yay!

[George II]

11. I don't think he or many candidates have been to NORTH Carolina but they've all been to SOUTH Car.

[Gothmog]

33. Here is some interesting polling

Link to tweet

[Demsrule86]

3. I think Biden wil take Nevada and South Carolina and tie in Iowa or be close enough...he may win New

Hampshire or be close.

[highplainsdem]

9. That sounds plausible to me, too.

[Demsrule86]

16. I think so...

[Thekaspervote]

12. This!! The article makes really valid points

[Demsrule86]

17. It does make valid points...good article.

[Xandric77]

13. Warren has a buffer in California

It has the most delegates in the primary.

[highplainsdem]

14. Some polls have shown Biden ahead in CA. And TX and FL together have more delegates than CA,

and Biden's most likely to win those states.

[Demsrule86]

18. I believe she is slipping and if Biden is clearly the front runner that will have an effect. Also,

the notion that all Californians are far left is false. Biden has lead in some California polls and most likely he will win or they will split delegates which won't help Warren...race may even be over before California for all intents and purposes.

[BannonsLiver]

19. That's more or less what happened in 1992

Paul Tsongas was the early front runner having won NH. Tom Harkin ran that year so Iowa was less of a big deal in that cycle because everyone knew that was going to be an easy Win for Harkin. Then Clinton started racking up wins.

[Quixote1818]

25. Hard to say. Once people engage their votes can shift rapidly and most people aren't yet. nt

[bearsfootball516]

27. We've been hearing that since the spring. We're less than 3 months from the Iowa caucus.

We're quickly entering crunch time now.

[crazytown]

29. Lless than 3 months and the next debate has 10 candidates

[bearsfootball516]

34. Yeah....wish that could be whittled down a little more.

We need a debate threshold of like, 6 percent.

[Demsrule86]

40. Too many! I would like to see Biden, Warren, Sanders and Buttigeige debate. Honestly, I wish

the others would go away.

[Gothmog]

35. Biden is the ONLY candidate running who is in a strong position to win the first four contests

Link to tweet

[boomer_wv]

37. Highest quality CA poll...

is SurveyUSA that has Biden up 15.

Monmouth shows him up 4 in NH. Quinnipiac has him down just 3 in IA, ahead of Warren.

Hard to argue that he cant do well in these.

[Gothmog]

38. Joe Biden is the most electable candidate that the Democratic Party has available

Link to tweet

[MineralMan]

42. 2020 is not going to be your father's primary year.

the traditional importance of the four early primaries (and caucuses) is in the trash can for 2020. Why? Because Super Tuesday on March 3 is going to make what happens in Iowa, New Hampshire, Nevada and South Carolina fade instantly into the bit bin.

This will be the last presidential election year where those early states can even pretend to matter for the Democratic nomination.

In truth, they won't matter a bit in 2020. Not one bit. Except in one area. After those four primaries, there will only be four candidates left who anyone will take seriously at all. The rest will need to start planning for their future, which will not involve the White House.

My opinion only, of course. Yours might differ.