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Joe BidenCongratulations to our presumptive Democratic nominee, Joe Biden!
 

Xandric77

(54 posts)
Fri Nov 15, 2019, 12:19 PM Nov 2019

Why is Reuters/Ipsos using an "adults" sample"

Many adults are not even eligible to vote. That's not even mentioning many adults are not even registered to vote, let alone likely to vote. We don't even know how many are likely to register to vote.

Then dumb people like Krystal Ball get all excited about it because she doesn't know anything about methodology.


?s=19
If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for:
Undecided
9 replies = new reply since forum marked as read
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Why is Reuters/Ipsos using an "adults" sample" (Original Post) Xandric77 Nov 2019 OP
84% of respondents were registered to vote. HerbChestnut Nov 2019 #1
It's an online poll conducted in English, then the results were "weighted to balance demographics".. George II Nov 2019 #4
LOL, manipulated. HerbChestnut Nov 2019 #5
Bazinga! Hassin Bin Sober Nov 2019 #7
Oh Ms Ball crazytown Nov 2019 #2
Would that make it a Margin-of-Error +/- 16%?? NurseJackie Nov 2019 #3
MoE was 2.4%. Thanks for playing. HerbChestnut Nov 2019 #6
When you poll "adults", the results skew toward Benie ritapria Nov 2019 #8
K n R JoeOtterbein Nov 2019 #9
 

HerbChestnut

(3,649 posts)
1. 84% of respondents were registered to vote.
Fri Nov 15, 2019, 12:22 PM
Nov 2019

Link to the poll.

https://fingfx.thomsonreuters.com/gfx/mkt/12/8684/8604/Topline%20Reuters%202020%20Election%20Tracker%2011%2014%202019.pdf

EDIT: Before someone freaks out, Republicans were not asked about their preference in the Democratic primary.

If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for:
Undecided
 

George II

(67,782 posts)
4. It's an online poll conducted in English, then the results were "weighted to balance demographics"..
Fri Nov 15, 2019, 12:38 PM
Nov 2019
For this survey, a sample of 2,235 adults age 18+ from the continental U.S.,
Alaska and Hawaii were interviewed online in English
. The sample includes 958 Democrats, 848
Republicans, and 249 independents. Weighting was then employed to balance demographics to
ensure that the sample's composition reflects that of the adult population according to Census data
and to provide results intended to approximate the sample universe.


In other words, huge chunks of Americans were not included (i.e., those who don't have internet access and those who only speak other languages), and the results were "weighted" (i.e., manipulated)

If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for:
Joe Biden
 

HerbChestnut

(3,649 posts)
5. LOL, manipulated.
Fri Nov 15, 2019, 12:40 PM
Nov 2019

Right. Let the unskewing begin.

If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for:
Undecided
 

NurseJackie

(42,862 posts)
3. Would that make it a Margin-of-Error +/- 16%??
Fri Nov 15, 2019, 12:31 PM
Nov 2019


If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for:
Joe Biden
 

ritapria

(1,812 posts)
8. When you poll "adults", the results skew toward Benie
Fri Nov 15, 2019, 12:42 PM
Nov 2019

WaPo/ ABC News poll adults ...That number show shows him at 19% …..When they drill down to "registered voters" his support number drops to 17% ….

If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for:
Undecided
 

JoeOtterbein

(7,866 posts)
9. K n R
Fri Nov 15, 2019, 01:29 PM
Nov 2019

Great news for Bernie!

Thanks for posting!

If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for:
Undecided
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