Democratic Primaries

reggieandlee

(778 posts) Mon Nov 18, 2019, 11:22 AM Nov 2019

BTRTN 2020 Vision: Changing of the Guard? Pete Ascendant as Warren Flattens in a Wide Open Race

Born To Run The Numbers has just posted their latest "2020 Vision," which provides in-depth quantitative and qualitative analysis of the state of the 2020 Presidential campaign. It is an up-to-the-minute view, with polling data on primary states:

http://www.borntorunthenumbers.com/2019/11/btrtn-2020-vision-changing-of-guard.html

Excerpts: "It’s a four-candidate race in Iowa, with Pete Buttigieg nudging ahead of the field, followed (very) closely by Elizabeth Warren, Joe Biden and Bernie Sanders. But recent polls show that Warren’s upward dash in Iowa and New Hampshire may have peaked, as she comes under attack for her “Medicare for All” policy, which is now defining her campaign (oddly, since it is the only policy plan that she did not author herself, instead she endorsed Sanders’ plan).

"Biden continues to show resiliency in the face of an uneven run, maintaining the same lead in the national polls he has enjoyed for months, still holding at roughly 30% of Democrats. He also continues to be the strongest candidate versus Trump in head-to-head polling, particularly in the key red states that must be flipped on the 'path to 270' in 2020.

"Those rumblings of dissatisfaction with the state of the field you heard turned out to be the footsteps of Deval Patrick, who entered the race, and Mike Bloomberg, who met a filing deadline for Alabama, though remains undeclared.

"Heretofore minor candidates are showing the slightest signs of life here and there, and our eyes are on Amy Klobuchar – is she entering the radar screen in Iowa?"