Morning Consult: Warren's September Surge Has Evaporated

[highplainsdem]

https://morningconsult.com/2019/11/25/warrens-september-surge-has-evaporated/

After a steady late-summer rise, Sen. Elizabeth Warren (D-Mass.) is losing ground with the Democratic electorate.

The latest Morning Consult poll, conducted Nov. 21-24 following Wednesday’s Democratic presidential debate, found 15 percent of likely Democratic primary voters prefer her as their first choice, down 2 percentage points from the previous week and marking her worst showing in the national polling since late August.

The finding marks a 6-point drop from the 21 percent first-choice vote share she had held from late September through a poll conducted Oct. 16-20 following the Oct. 15 Democratic presidential debate. It erased the slight lead she held over Sen. Bernie Sanders (I-Vt.), a candidate whose policies appeal to the type of Democratic voter her own policy plans appear to target.

The decline in her polling numbers has been driven by statistically significant drops in support among almost every demographic group surveyed — and, most notably, among the highest-educated voters, the oldest voters and voters who identify as liberal and very liberal — compared to her vote share in an Oct. 7-13 poll conducted before last month’s debate. Warren lost her lead with liberal voters and now trails Sanders by 4 points, 16 percent to 20 percent.

The point at which her support among key groups began to fall matches the beginning of a flashpoint for her candidacy over health care, a top issue for Democratic voters. In the week following the Oct. 15 debate, her first-choice share among the most politically engaged voters fell 2 points, to 26 percent. In the October debate, South Bend Mayor Pete Buttigieg of Indiana criticized Warren for refusing to say whether taxes would go up for middle-class Americans under her “Medicare for All” plan.

Three weeks later, Warren released her proposal to pay for the expansion of the federally funded health care coverage — but in the weeks since, her first-choice support has continued to fall.

-snip-

Found this thanks to a tweet from Nate Silver, who says Warren is being squeezed by Sanders and Buttigieg:

Link to tweet

Pretty clear from this data that Warren is being squeezed both by Sanders and Buttigieg. Our averages have Warren down ~4-5 points from her peak ~6 weeks ago, while Buttigieg and Bernie have each gained 2 points or so.

https://morningconsult.com/2019/11/25/warrens-september-surge-has-evaporated/

[Thekaspervote]

1. Interesting read... surprising that she is being "squeezed" out from these two

[ritapria]

2. Eliabeth is being hurt by her handling of MFA

She made a mistake by claiming middle class taxes would not have go up under MFA ...They have to go up ...Then she backed off from MFA by opting for passage of the Public Option during the first 2 years of her administration …. Ignore the focus groups and consultants Senator Warren ….

[VarryOn]

3. This past weekend's video didnt help either...

Although it hasnt been reflected in the polling yet.

[ritapria]

4. The video with the Pro Charter School Protesters ?

[FloridaBlues]

5. Mayor Pete is blanketing media in NH and Iowa

He's got a lot of money and is using it. We will see what happens down the road.
Personally I think the stinkweed of Bloomberg will be interesting polling at 3% surpass candidates already.