If you add Sanders and warren numbers

[rainy]

they beat the middle of the road front runner. Sorry Biden peeps but facts are facts. How do progressives, majority of voters, recon with that? We need to get this right for the future of humanity. Raw capitalism is destroying our planet and people’s lives!!!

[cilla4progress]

1. Thats

what I'M talking about!

[Demsrule86]

17. Primaries are not team events...sorry.

One of the other...Sanders or Warren should drop out so as not to dilute the left vote...I don't use the word progressive because Biden is progressive...don't know how folks think otherwise.

[wcast]

2. I've often thought that myself.

Nothing against Biden and I'd vote for him in the general but not the primary. I want a progressive candidate who supports bold policies.

[Demsrule86]

13. I don't care about any of that. I want a candidate who can win a general and kick psychopathic

piece of crap Trump to the curb.

[JustAnotherGen]

3. Except

I think there is some cross over there - and it also intersects with Mayor Pete.

And I still remain undecided. I'll make a choice after SC, NV, and California. That's when we get to core base and people of color in this election.

[LAS14]

4. Yes, but they don't yet beat the total of the moderates. I'm not giving up, though!

Elizabeth has proved herself to be very persuasive on the campaign trail.

[Demsrule86]

8. It that was the case,she would not be losing support.

[rainy]

39. She is losing support because of stupid questions

by dumb pundits who promote the good of corporate owners

[Demsrule86]

46. No doubt the media can be brutal...but she did have their support for quite a while...

[highplainsdem]

5. If you're combining totals, then add Buttigieg and Klobuchar to Biden's numbers. Sorry, Sanders and

Warren peeps, but those facts are facts, and you're not considering facts at all if you just combine the two most progressive candidates against only one liberal-but-not-far-left candidate.

[crazytown]

10. Buttigieg ain't dropping out

no can do.

[highplainsdem]

12. And neither is Warren or Sanders, so their numbers can't be combined.

[crazytown]

22. What the polls suggest is that Pete's support is at Warren's expense.

Not from Biden supporters.

[highplainsdem]

26. The polls have suggested Warren had picked up some moderate support that she's now losing, due

to her MFA fiasco.

[crazytown]

29. Qualitative link?

[highplainsdem]

31. Here's one:

https://poll.qu.edu/national/release-detail?ReleaseID=3650

"Biden is back on top of the pack but now there is a 3-way race for second. Buttigieg has broken into the top tier, apparently at the expense of Warren, who has taken a dive after being hammered for being too far left on health care and other issues," said Quinnipiac University Polling Analyst Tim Malloy.

I think there was another among yesterday's polls but I haven't had time to check for it yet.

I did notice months ago that Warren was picking up some moderate support, which I didn't think was likely to last as her policies, which are closer to Sanders' than to anyone else's, got more scrutiny.

[crazytown]

32. That is correlation, not causation.

[highplainsdem]

42. Well, if you're going to demand a poll showing exactly which supporters Warren lost to another

candidate for specific reasons, you're never going to get one.

But it's undeniable that almost all the media coverage she's received this last month has been about her stance on MFA and how to fund it and how to implement it.

I posted an OP yesterday about Morning Consult's analysis of Warren's decline in the polls

https://www.democraticunderground.com/1287359457

that linked to their website

https://morningconsult.com/2019/11/25/warrens-september-surge-has-evaporated/

After a steady late-summer rise, Sen. Elizabeth Warren (D-Mass.) is losing ground with the Democratic electorate.

The latest Morning Consult poll, conducted Nov. 21-24 following Wednesday’s Democratic presidential debate, found 15 percent of likely Democratic primary voters prefer her as their first choice, down 2 percentage points from the previous week and marking her worst showing in the national polling since late August.

The finding marks a 6-point drop from the 21 percent first-choice vote share she had held from late September through a poll conducted Oct. 16-20 following the Oct. 15 Democratic presidential debate. It erased the slight lead she held over Sen. Bernie Sanders (I-Vt.), a candidate whose policies appeal to the type of Democratic voter her own policy plans appear to target.

The decline in her polling numbers has been driven by statistically significant drops in support among almost every demographic group surveyed — and, most notably, among the highest-educated voters, the oldest voters and voters who identify as liberal and very liberal — compared to her vote share in an Oct. 7-13 poll conducted before last month’s debate. Warren lost her lead with liberal voters and now trails Sanders by 4 points, 16 percent to 20 percent.

The point at which her support among key groups began to fall matches the beginning of a flashpoint for her candidacy over health care, a top issue for Democratic voters. In the week following the Oct. 15 debate, her first-choice share among the most politically engaged voters fell 2 points, to 26 percent. In the October debate, South Bend Mayor Pete Buttigieg of Indiana criticized Warren for refusing to say whether taxes would go up for middle-class Americans under her “Medicare for All” plan.

Three weeks later, Warren released her proposal to pay for the expansion of the federally funded health care coverage — but in the weeks since, her first-choice support has continued to fall.

If Sanders is picking up Warren supporters from the most liberal bloc of Democratic voters, then Buttigieg is picking up some of her support from more moderate voters. Which, again, I was surprised she had...but she'd received tons of fawning media coverage for several months, and many of her supporters didn't seem to realize her policies were so close to Sanders's.

She managed to lose both some more leftwing supporters and moderate supporters because the more leftwing supporters who have now switched to Sanders were probably unhappy with both her not admitting taxes on the middle class will go up, and with her announced plan to go for a public option first.

As I said in another post here, she was trying to be all things to all people, and it didn't work. It usually doesn't.

[Demsrule86]

6. She is not going to win nor is Bernie...I doubt either win Iowa or New Hampshire... but

no matter what it will be close enough to be a wash unless the drop for both Warren and Sanders continues. No matter what South Carolina and Nevada will go for Biden I think...and on super Tuesday Biden will be way ahead maybe the nominee by then. And that is a good thing...if you can't win a primary than you can't win a general. Biden is the most electable Democrat to go up against Trump...and the important thing is not whether any of us get our candidate into the general but that we get Trump out in the general. Vote blue no matter who. This is a center left country at best...sad but true.

[George II]

7. If you add the "middle of the road" other candidates, Biden beats the Sanders/Warren easily.

[guillaumeb]

11. Raw capitalism, or unregulated capitalism, or predatory capitalism, is toxic. eom

[ChiTownDenny]

14. What a ridiculous OP.

Just tell us why your candidate is great. Easy, peasy.

[LAS14]

15. Not ridiculous. It's engendered some interesting posts. nt

[ChiTownDenny]

21. Oh yeah?

FFS! Kindergarten arguments.

[highplainsdem]

28. Nope. It's engendered the same old types of posts pointng out it's a false comparison to combine

both of the farthest-left candidates versus only one of the more moderate or less far left candidates.

We've seen a number of OPs like this already.

[LAS14]

36. I haven't seen those OPs. Some of us miss a whole lot of DU posts. Repetition is part...

... of how it works. I actually submitted a post like the one you describe. I was happy to find a forum to "say it out loud." If you've heard it before I don't apologize.

[dem4decades]

34. But some horrible math. Why do you get to add the Sanders and Warren numbers? And

ignore other candidates and their totals if added together?

[LAS14]

38. As several "interesting" replies have pointed out. nt

[TidalWave46]

44. Actually, it's ridiculous.

It fits the definition of "ridiculous."

The argument fails logic completely.

[brooklynite]

16. Are you saying that Biden and Buttigieg support "raw capitalism"?

[Demsrule86]

20. Of course they don't... Joe and Pete's positions are Democratic positions...hell I don't even

support some of Warren or Sanders positions on corporations and banks...etc. The knives have come out for Pete of late which is too bad. I hate that sort of thing.

[George II]

37. Sanders plus Warren equal 31%, Biden plus Buttigieg equal 39%. No doubt many of the others....

....who are at 1-3% would fall into the Biden group, NONE of those would fall into the Warren/Sanders group.

[JoeOtterbein]

18. K n R ! Thanks for posting!

[brooklynite]

19. When will Warren be dropping out?

If consolidating the progressive vote is so critical, isn’t she willing to make the sacrifice?

[Demsrule86]

23. +1000, you don't get to combine votes in a primary...they are hoping they can somehow

have a brokered convention and delegates will give it to them...ignoring primary voters which is a ticket to loserville in the general and Trump gets four more years...God forbid.

[awesomerwb1]

24. If I add all the numbers

from my date of birth I get = 37. I add 3 + 7 = 10. 1+0= 1

I win.

[beastie boy]

25. Sanders and Warren are still running against each other, aren't they?

In fact, they are in fierce competition for the #2 position. To add them together, one of them will have to concede. So who is going to drop out first?

[brooklynite]

27. Can I play?

A majority of support goes to candidates aged 70 or above, so all the younger candidates should drop out. Fair?

[Hoyt]

30. Why wouldn't you also combine votes of other candidates in comparison? Not interested in losing GE.

[tirebiter]

33. Well then have Warren or Sanders drop out

Then we can see the real numbers, can’t we.

[customerserviceguy]

35. If that holds

and it may or may not, we may well stumble into something I talked about a couple of months ago, which people considered unthinkable.

What if we have a combined Warren/Sanders delegate count that exceeds 50% by the time of the first ballot, but there was a single so-called centrist front runner (Biden or Buttigieg, I presume at this point) with, say, 40% of the delegates? Of course, that makes a first ballot victory impossible, so it comes down to the second ballot, where the superdelegates get to vote.

Do they throw in with the front runner, looking to portray the Democratic Party as a sensible alternative to Republiconism, thus ticking off the progressives, or do they try to decide between Sanders and Warren? What if the amity between those two Senators continues all the way to the end, and they offer a Sanders-Warren unity ticket, with Bernie Sanders agreeing to only serve one term?

[Gothmog]

40. If sanders and Warren are each under 15% then they may get no delegates under 15% rule

The best that they can hope for is a contested convention where the super delegates will all vote for Biden on the second ballot

[TidalWave46]

41. This makes no logical sense.

You do see the massive flaw in your argument, don't you? Please tell me you do. Please.

Truly painful to read.

[LongtimeAZDem]

43. "And if you multiply that by how much birds like him . . ."

[rainy]

45. Most people support progressive ideas:

https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.cnbc.com/amp/2019/03/27/majority-of-americans-support-progressive-policies-such-as-paid-maternity-leave-free-college.html

“ The hot-button issue of "Medicare for All'' also gets majority support at 54 percent, including from 81 percent of Democrats but just 19 percent of Republicans.”

This is all I was trying to say. Surprised by some of the meanness. Wow!

[corbettkroehler]

47. Helpful Ammunition

Although this piece name checks Sanders, I think you'll find that it provides ample empirical evidence to further your argument (with which I concur, natch)

https://www.democraticunderground.com/12964816

[MineralMan]

48. If you think all those people will switch to the other candidate,

you're incorrect. Besides, neither Bernie Sanders nor Elizabeth Warren will be dropping out of the race, so it will remain divided, much as it is right now.

What I wonder is why you did not capitalize "warren." That seems odd, somehow, since you managed to find the Shift key for "Sanders."

[Hortensis]

49. If you add ALL Biden's numbers, first and second choices,

and that includes many who have Warren or Sanders as firsts and Biden as second, everyone else is even farther behind.

More voters are actually repelled by Sanders, both as the wrong stuff for present and increasingly disliked, than are drawn to him, and of course the same Sanders hostiles as last time already promise to again vote Trump or anyone not Democrat. They're already gone, and when he loses they'll scream and shout to make sure everyone knows they're gone and it's. all. our. fault.

Warren is a committed Democrat and not on their list, big clues to how very different she is from Sanders. And so is this: In 2015 when Biden was considering running, Biden wanted Elizabeth Warren for his VP. She was reportedly "noncommittal but not displeased" on meeting with him then, and we now know she would almost certainly have accepted.

How's that for a common propaganda-lie buster?



https://www.politico.com/story/2016/05/joe-biden-elizabeth-warren-223104