DU Primaries Report, November 2019: Comings And Goings

[EarlG]

Welcome to the eighth monthly DU Primaries Report, based on the ongoing candidate preferences of DU members right here in the Democratic Primaries forum!

How the Candidate Rankings board works:

• Displayed percentages are rounded to the nearest whole number, so a candidate displayed at (for example) 10% will have an actual percentage in the range of 9.50% to 10.49%.


• Candidates below 0.5% are displayed at 0%. Candidates with no supporters at all are marked with a dash.


• For the purposes of the DU Primaries Report, only candidates who have an actual percentage of at least 1% are included.

Previously on the DU Primaries Report

October 2019: Ups And Downs
September 2019: So Trump Is Getting Impeached
August 2019: I'll Just Get My Coat
July 2019: Look, a Squirrel!
June 2019: Warren Takes Charge
May 2019: Steady As She Goes
April 2019: Let's Get This Party Started!

Where the candidates stand this month

While there may not have been too much movement among the established candidates over the past month, there were certainly plenty of comings and goings. First, a fond farewell to Beto O'Rourke and Wayne Messam, both of whom called it quits in November.



O'Rourke started strong back in March, entering DU's primary contest with 4.02%, but never managed to build on his momentum and declined steadily ever since. He finished the race with just 1.84%. Messam, on the other hand, never really caught fire to begin with. He entered the race with a disappointing 0% and closed out with an inevitable 0%.

Candidates above 1% actual support, including Undecided, November 2019



But what's this? Yes, we now officially welcome Andrew Yang to the DU Primaries Report as he cracked 1% (actual) for the first time this month. Yang joined us at 1% and nudged up slightly by the end of the month to 1.11%. Meanwhile Amy Klobuchar, who re-entered the top tier last month, refused to slip back, starting November at 1.38% and picking up steam to finish at 1.55%.

When candidates drop out, our system automatically resets their supporters to Undecided, and in the above graph you can see the effect that had when O'Rourke left the race. Interestingly, it seems that his supporters mostly declined to choose another candidate, but you can get an idea of where some of them may have gone by looking at the all-time graph:

Candidates above 1% actual support, excluding Undecided, all-time



O'Rourke's supporters apparently did not move to Elizabeth Warren, who officially appears to have peaked, at least for the time being. Warren began November with 22.02% and has since dropped more than half a percentage point to 21.45%, after topping out at 22.31% in mid-October. That said she is of course still the overwhelming favorite on DU, with a significant lead over second-place Joe Biden. Biden started November with 13.34% and finished the month up slightly at 13.46%. Biden has remained very stable for several months now.

Also very stable is Bernie Sanders, who held firm throughout November, starting at 7.8% and ending at 7.87%. He remains in third place over Kamala Harris, who continued to fade. She began November at 7.65% and declined to 7.43% by the end of the month.

Pete Buttigieg, meanwhile, offers a clue as to where some of O'Rourke's supporters may have gone. Following a well-received debate performance, Buttigieg reversed his slide and climbed from 5.72% at the start of the month to 6.1% by the end.

Meanwhile, two new candidates entered the Democratic primaries in November -- Deval Patrick and Michael Bloomberg. Neither of them has cracked 1% actual support on DU, with Patrick failing to pick up a single supporter as of yet, and Bloomberg closing out the month behind Tulsi Gabbard, Cory Booker, Marianne Williamson, Julian Castro, Michael Bennet, and Tom Steyer.

Next month's predictions

Last month I predicted that Donald Trump would declare:



I'd say that given Trump's apparent mid-month medical emergency and subsequent declarations that he definitely did not have a massive heart attack, I was pretty close with that prediction.

But what will next month bring? We do have another debate coming up in December and a number of candidates are still struggling to meet the qualifications. If Cory Booker and Julian Castro fail to qualify, it's possible that their candidacies will come to an end sooner rather than later. Most other candidates will likely hold on whether they make the debate or not, but with the Iowa Caucuses coming up in just about two months, it surely can't be long before the field narrows significantly.

The next report will take place on Monday, December 30. Thanks for reading!

[CaliforniaPeggy]

1. Thanks for this very thorough report, my dear EarlG!

You have done quite a lot of very meticulous work.

[YOHABLO]

2. Looks to me like Warren is surging.

[defacto7]

3. Fine job, EarlG. It's always appreciated.

[JonLP24]

4. Bernie supporters are loyal

[LiberalLovinLug]

6. Pretty consistent.

Slow and steady wins the race!

[Nitram]

5. Thanks for the info.

[seaglass]

7. Question for you Earl - I noticed someone Flagged for Review who hasn't posted since 2017 who has a

candidate preference. I think it's weird that someone who has been Flagged has the ability to choose a candidate.

Are you able to exclude Flagged people's choices when you do your stats?

I think these monthly reports are interesting and am curious about whether Flagged members (former members?) choices are being counted or not.

Thanks!

[Celerity]

9. great question, I think all FFR accounts with a preference should not be counted nt

[SonofDonald]

8. I'm "undecided" but I'm voting blue

Across the board no matter what, no matter who it is although I do have two faves.

I'd vote for Pat Paulsen if he was the candidate and I don't think he's running these days.

BLUE WAVE BABY!