Survey USA (A-rated) California Primary poll Nov 20-22

[beastie boy]

Biden 30
Sanders 19
Warren 13
Harris 10
Buttigieg 9
Yang 4
Booker 3

http://www.surveyusa.com/client/PollReport.aspx?g=bdcd277b-f00f-48eb-a393-bf59bb2a0fab

In 4 consecutive SurveyUSA monthly tracking polls, Biden has always led a large Democratic field by as few as 4 points, as many as 15 points, and today by 11 points, at 30%. Biden's closest CA rival today, Bernie Sanders is at 19%.

This is the latest A-rated poll. Like all other available polls, it was taken before Harris dropped out.

[still_one]

1. Will be interesting to see where the Harris supporters go to

[MineralMan]

2. Oh, good. A real poll, rather than an online one. Thanks!

That sounds more like what things probably look like in CA so far. I think I'll disregard the online polling.

[honest.abe]

4. I think this was also on-line.

About: SurveyUSA interviewed 2,700 adults statewide 11/20/19 through 11/22/19, immediately following the Democratic candidate debate in Atlanta. Of the CA adults interviewed, 2,039 are registered to vote. Of the registered voters, 1,215 would be eligible to vote in a Democratic primary "today." Of the 1,215, SurveyUSA judged 558 as likely Democratic primary voters. The research was conducted online. Where, on this template, you see a "Triangle T" on Question #5, click directly on the "T" to open a new window with tracking graphs that reveal SurveyUSA time-series data. Time-series data is not just available for the overall results, but for every demographic sub-population. As is true with any opinion research report, the fewer the individual respondents in the sub-population, the larger the chance that sampling error and other error may make those estimates less precise. In parallel with these findings, SurveyUSA today releases the identical Democratic primary questionnaire conducted nationwide.

However, I do trust Survey USA polls more than the others.. on-line or by phone.

[MineralMan]

5. Please read that more carefully.

What was done online was the research regarding how many of those surveyed were likely democratic primary voters. The polling was done through interviews of subjects.

[honest.abe]

7. Ah yes, I think you are correct!

Thank you for the clarification.

Survey USA is the best!

[MineralMan]

8. Well, it did take a careful reading to discern that.

I try to read everything carefully, but sometimes, I miss things by just scanning stories. Survey USA has an A-rating for a reason.

[TwilightZone]

3. The LA Times poll that's been posted a lot today looks like an outlier.

This one seems more realistic in context of others.

https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2020/president/ca/california_democratic_primary-6879.html#polls

[TwilightZone]

9. No, they're only a few days apart and have two days in common.

LA Times was Nov 21-27, 2019
Survey USA was Nov 20-22, 2019

This also isn't a recent problem. The LAT poll has been out of whack with the others for a couple months now.

https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2020-primaries/democratic/california/

[honest.abe]

10. +1

Thank you for noting that.

[honest.abe]

15. I think the point is that the LA times polls are all over the place..

not necessarily a bias to one candidate or another.

[TwilightZone]

16. It also had Warren at 29%, which in context of the others was highly unlikely.

It's an outlier. Has been for months.

Here, make it simple.

A-rated poll has Biden at 28%.
B/C-rated poll has Biden at 14%.

They can't both be right. Make an educated guess on which one is more likely to be accurate.

[MineralMan]

11. All polls that include Harris are now out of date.

We will have to wait for the next round of polls to accurately measure things.

That's how it works. As candidates drop out, we have to see how the preferences realign. This will be a problem right up until Super Tuesday. Following the early primaries, we will see a good number of candidates drop out of the running.

With any luck, the group that is still running on Super Tuesday will be down to no more than six. then, we will be able to begin to understand who the nominee will be. We'll have some delegate counts from the largest states, and those will tell the story.

Until then, we're pretty much just guessing, although we have a pretty good idea who the top four will be.

[MineralMan]

17. Not so, actually. She has enough support in California to make a

difference, depending on how her supporters shift their support. She was not an actual contender for a top position, but did have enough votes to make a difference.

How will her supporters react to her leaving the race? We don't know, but we're about to find out.

All of the minor candidates' supporters are going to be moving soon. Together, they represent a lot of votes, in aggregate. Where those supporters move is going to affect the order among the top four candidates.

I don't know where they'll go. Do you?

[TwilightZone]

18. She was polling at 10% in the latest SurveyUSA poll

This is CA we're talking about, her home state. 10% is enough to make a difference. If most of it went to Warren, for example, she'd move up to second.

[MineralMan]

19. Now, see, you're being rational. That's not really allowed here.

Harris has been averaging between 8 and 11 for a while. All anyone has to do is add that number to the leaders' counts to see how much difference it could make.

Of course, the reality is that her supporters will shift to more than one other candidate, but it will make a difference, to be sure. Imagine all of Harris's votes going to Buttigieg, for example. That would change things for him. They won't of course, but the point remains that Harris's supporters still matter in this race.

[beastie boy]

14. The Berkley poll covers Nov. 21-27. The SurveyUSA poll covers Nov 20-22.

A difference of five days makes one poll obsolete and the other current?

Ok...

[MineralMan]

20. Only if you have an ax to grind, see...

[MineralMan]

22. Just for fun, let's say all of Harris's 10% of supporters shift to Warren.

The would leave Joe Biden still +7 over her, based on this poll. Of course, that's an unlikely thing to happen, but let's just say...

Those are the realities at this time.