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Joe BidenCongratulations to our presumptive Democratic nominee, Joe Biden!

Sat Dec 7, 2019, 01:21 PM

 

If any media outlet is surprised at Bernie's support in states such as Kentucky...

...they must have slept through 2015-2016. Or they're just stupid.

In general in 2016, Sanders did best in states with less diversity. The 2016 Democratic Primary in Kentucky was incredibly close (probably the closest contest of all) in spite of taking place well after the race had been decided back on Super Tuesday. Leave it to members of the MSM to take reality and flip it on its head. To suggest that Sanders having a "surprising" level of support in a state such as Kentucky is proof that he's a serious contender is the exact opposite takeaway one should possess. "Hi, I'm a member of the media and it's my job to get you, the viewer, to believe the exact opposite of what's real." Ugh.

Sanders is at his ceiling of support. He has a loyal and substantial following, but it's not going to grow much, if at all. He's a known quantity. After New Hampshire, the race is basically over for Sanders.

The main thing Sanders is accomplishing is shrinking the electorate. He's locked up a large, cult-like following, which means the rest of the field is competing for the remaining 80-85% of the electorate. That's 1 of 2 factors that's had a major impact on this race. The other is the size of the field--most people aren't inclined to bother distinguishing between 20+ candidates they've never heard of, which is to the benefit of those with the most name recognition. Had the field never been larger than 7-8 candidates and had Sanders not run, we'd be looking at a totally different dynamic--and probably a much different result.
If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for:
Undecided

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Reply If any media outlet is surprised at Bernie's support in states such as Kentucky... (Original post)
Garrett78 Dec 2019 OP
JonLP24 Dec 2019 #1
Garrett78 Dec 2019 #2
JonLP24 Dec 2019 #3
MH1 Dec 2019 #4
Garrett78 Dec 2019 #5
vsrazdem Dec 2019 #9
Garrett78 Dec 2019 #10
vsrazdem Dec 2019 #12
Garrett78 Dec 2019 #13
vsrazdem Dec 2019 #14
Garrett78 Dec 2019 #15
Amimnoch Dec 2019 #7
Name removed Dec 2019 #6
Garrett78 Dec 2019 #8
NYMinute Dec 2019 #11
Garrett78 Dec 2019 #19
betsuni Dec 2019 #16
myohmy2 Dec 2019 #17
Garrett78 Dec 2019 #18
floppyboo Dec 2019 #21
floppyboo Dec 2019 #22
floppyboo Dec 2019 #23
Garrett78 Dec 2019 #24
NYMinute Dec 2019 #20

Response to Garrett78 (Original post)

Sat Dec 7, 2019, 01:29 PM

1. I'm not worried about states after New Hampshire

 

He polls very well in California and he was tied for 2nd place with Warren in Arizona. I don't think anybody but Biden will win South Carolina.

My mom flipped a few votes on her own by simply saying Bernie Sanders supports expanding social security.

-------

A senior Joe Biden campaign staffer in charge of outreach to Latino, African-American and women’s groups has quit her post, telling two allies she was frustrated over her lack of input and with the presidential candidate’s immigration rhetoric.

Vanessa Cárdenas, the most senior Latina Biden staffer, had been serving as national coalitions director since the campaign formally announced its existence April 25. She resigned last week and has since changed her bio on Twitter to say she was “formerly with @joebiden.”

Cárdenas did not return a call or text message, but two friends familiar with her thinking told POLITICO that she felt the campaign wasn’t heeding her advice on immigration as she tried to reach out to Latino groups that have had longstanding concerns with the former vice president’s rhetoric and record stemming from the Obama administration.

“The campaign is just hyper-focused on whites in Iowa and African-Americans and it placed less value on Latino outreach,” an immigration activist and friend who spoke with her told POLITICO.

https://www.politico.com/news/2019/11/25/biden-senior-latina-adviser-quits-073553

This leaves an opening for Sanders.

Sanders outpaces other 2020 Dems in Latino fundraising support
https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.politico.com/amp/news/2019/11/05/bernie-sanders-latino-2020-vote-065820
If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for:
Undecided

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Response to JonLP24 (Reply #1)

Sat Dec 7, 2019, 01:36 PM

2. I'm not a big Biden fan but he's a serious contender. Sanders isn't and never was.

 

Again, all Sanders is doing is shrinking the electorate. His base of support isn't that of a potential nominee. It wasn't in 2016 and it isn't now. That's a reality he and his supporters are apparently not willing to face.
If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for:
Undecided

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Response to Garrett78 (Reply #2)

Sat Dec 7, 2019, 01:40 PM

3. We will see

 

'Barrio cred': Bernie banks on Latinos for primary breakout

Sanders’ star support from prominent Latinas “gives him barrio cred, street cred for this old white Jewish dude who is running for president,” said Domingo Garcia, president of the League of United Latin American Citizens. Garcia backed the Vermont senator in 2016 but, as president of LULAC, has refrained from endorsing a candidate in the current primary.

The fact that Joe Biden is counting on strong support from African Americans to win the Democratic nomination is widely known. Less understood is the similar bet that Sanders is making on Latino voters: His campaign believes that by driving up turnout among Latinos, as well as young and working-class voters of all ethnicities, he can build out the electorate, bring new voters into the fold, and expand the 15 to 20 percent of Democratic voters who zealously support the democratic socialist.

There’s also the reality that Sanders probably can’t win the Democratic nomination without Latinos, since his campaign is relying on a strong finish in states such as Nevada and California.

Speaking to a crowd of hundreds of Latinos at a LULAC town hall in Iowa last week, Sanders received the loudest welcome of any presidential candidate in attendance, rousing the audience as he took the stage. It was another promising sign for Sanders, whose team believes his message of “Medicare for All” and workers’ rights has clearly struck a chord among Latinos.

https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.politico.com/amp/news/2019/10/30/latinos-bernie-sanders-2020-strategy-060645

Bernie Sanders’s Loyal Voters Could Keep Him in Race for Months
Polls show Vermont senator’s base is more dedicated than that of any other 2020 Democrat

https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.wsj.com/amp/articles/bernie-sanderss-loyal-voters-could-keep-him-in-race-for-months-11574611201

If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for:
Undecided

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Response to Garrett78 (Reply #2)

Sat Dec 7, 2019, 01:57 PM

4. Shrinking the electorate and setting us up to lose.

 

I don't see any signs that he is preparing the more cult-like of his followers for the likelihood that he is not the nominee and that he expects (does he?) them to support the nominee.

If he gave a shit about this country getting back to decency, he would have stayed out of the race and worked to influence the eventual nominee. But no.
If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for:
Joe Biden

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Response to MH1 (Reply #4)

Sat Dec 7, 2019, 05:13 PM

5. Time will tell. I would hope he'll drop out (and endorse the nominee) sooner this time around.

 

I find it hard to believe that he thinks he can actually win. He's not a stupid person.
If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for:
Undecided

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Response to Garrett78 (Reply #5)

Sat Dec 7, 2019, 05:34 PM

9. Well there are quite a few behind him and I don't see them dropping out anytime soon.

 

If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for:
Undecided

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Response to vsrazdem (Reply #9)

Sat Dec 7, 2019, 05:50 PM

10. I'm not talking about dropping out now.

 

Though, if he were a woman (or POC), a heart attack would have ended the Sanders campaign. And I don't think he should have gotten in the race. I think he should have just endorsed Warren once she got in the race.

Anyway, all that is beside the point. His support is different; it's cult-like. As with Trump, Sanders has a cult of personality. His following is substantial and loyal but it isn't going to grow much, if at all. Nor is it going to shrink much, if at all. No matter what he does or says. Whereas someone like Booker or Klobuchar doing well in Iowa could potentially propel them to the nomination (remember that Kerry was very low in the polls in late 2003), Sanders will essentially be done after New Hampshire (or at least Nevada).

Also, Sanders is the only candidate who ran in 2016 and the data we have from 2016 makes it clear that he won't be the nominee unless he can somehow do much, much, much better than last time among POC. I see zero reason to think that'll happen. You can't get your ass kicked among Black folks, in particular, and come anywhere close to winning the nomination. No way, no how. That's why we knew on Super Tuesday in 2016 that the race was over. A race that was tailor-made for Sanders, as he was *the* alternative to a polarizing frontrunner. He doesn't have that same advantage of a 1-on-1 race against a much-vilified opponent that he had in 2016, so the pressure on him to leave the race sooner will be stronger in 2020.
If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for:
Undecided

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Response to Garrett78 (Reply #10)

Sat Dec 7, 2019, 06:10 PM

12. I guess you should direct that at Mayor Pete then.

 

If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for:
Undecided

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Response to vsrazdem (Reply #12)

Sat Dec 7, 2019, 06:24 PM

13. I've said that I think Buttigieg's alienation of Black folks will doom his campaign.

 

But I think he has a better shot than Sanders. Sanders winning both IA and NH wouldn't make much difference in SC and beyond. But Buttigieg winning IA and NH might propel him to the nomination. Just as it's very clear that Biden's campaign recognizes he can't afford to lose badly in IA, Buttigieg's campaign recognizes that he's got to repair damage with Black folks. Both campaigns are now acting accordingly.

I think the nominee will be Warren, Biden, Klobuchar or Booker. Again, had we never had more than 7-8 candidates and had Sanders not entered the race, I think we'd be looking at a whole different ballgame. But it is what it is.

I wish, more than anything, we were focused on the re-election of Clinton. But, again, it is what it is.
If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for:
Undecided

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Response to Garrett78 (Reply #13)

Sat Dec 7, 2019, 06:50 PM

14. IMO it will not be Buttigieg. He has been running for another job ever since he was elected Mayor.

 

First he became Mayor, then wanted the DNC Chair, now President. He would have been better off getting some good experience under his belt being a Mayor before running for President of the US. He is intelligent and articulate, and has a lot of good sense, but that is not enough. He needs some experience in government, and he should have been focusing on his city and getting some actual experience before deciding to run for president. That being said, I will vote for whoever the nominee is.
If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for:
Undecided

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Response to vsrazdem (Reply #14)

Sat Dec 7, 2019, 06:55 PM

15. He's been mayor for 7 years. That's quite a while.

 

Again, I think his biggest problem is his alienation of Black folks. Otherwise, he'd probably be the frontrunner.
If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for:
Undecided

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Response to MH1 (Reply #4)

Sat Dec 7, 2019, 05:23 PM

7. Spot on. I'd rec your response if i could. -nt.

 

If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for:
Undecided

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Response to Garrett78 (Original post)


Response to Name removed (Reply #6)

Sat Dec 7, 2019, 05:34 PM

8. Sanders undoubtedly has a good deal of support in Kentucky. Here are the 2016 primary results:

 

Clinton: 212,534 (46.76%)
Sanders: 210,623 (46.33%)

And, again, that primary took place long after we all knew who the nominee was going to be.

The point I'm making is that the recent CNN story about the "surprising" support for Sanders in Kentucky is just plain stupid. That some spin his support there as evidence that he's being underestimated is even stupider. Because Kentucky is precisely the type of state where Sanders did best in 2016. And that's all the more reason to disregard the suggestion that he's a serious contender. He isn't, and he never was. He has his substantial and loyal following, but his base of support (which is, I'm quite certain, pretty much at its ceiling) is not that of a potential nominee.
If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for:
Undecided

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Response to Garrett78 (Original post)

Sat Dec 7, 2019, 05:51 PM

11. K&R

 

Our media doing Putin's work
If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for:
Joe Biden

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Response to NYMinute (Reply #11)

Sat Dec 7, 2019, 10:48 PM

19. Sometimes, yes. In this case, I think it's just CNN being ignorant.

 

If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for:
Undecided

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Response to Garrett78 (Original post)

Sat Dec 7, 2019, 07:20 PM

16. K&R

 

If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for:
Joe Biden

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Response to Garrett78 (Original post)

Sat Dec 7, 2019, 09:18 PM

17. of course...

 

"...Sanders having a "surprising" level of support in a state such as Kentucky is proof that he's a serious contender..."

...this just confirms what many of us know, Bernie's support is not only miles wide, but miles deep...

...and growing...
If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for:
Joe Biden

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Response to myohmy2 (Reply #17)

Sat Dec 7, 2019, 10:46 PM

18. No, it isn't growing, and that's the point. KY is precisely the type of state...

 

...where Sanders did best in 2016. Which, again, is why we knew in 2016 that the race was over on Super Tuesday.
If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for:
Undecided

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Response to Garrett78 (Reply #18)

Sat Dec 7, 2019, 11:14 PM

21. His support IS growing!

 

Aside from his crushing it in individual donations (highest in history) the polls base their demographics on, usually, 2016, where only 18% of 18-25 showed up, versus 31% in 2018 - and I haven't even seen a poll that uses that turn-out. (EDIT: except an Emerson (or was it CNN?) poll that used 30% for 18-49, that poll where Bernie is winning. Outlier for sure, because it uses more up to date data)
They also ignore his huge inroads with the latin community (just under 9% - AA, for reference is just under 12%) AND they don't extrapolate given the HUGE #'s of new voters his team has registered.
(edit) And don't let's get started on viral hits.
So, there's that.
If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for:
Undecided

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Response to floppyboo (Reply #21)

Sat Dec 7, 2019, 11:24 PM

22. and just gotta add this bit about older demographics:

 

Ya, they do turn out at higher %'s, but there are fewer of them, and they vote 55 to 45 for republican.
So, there's also that.
If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for:
Undecided

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Response to floppyboo (Reply #22)

Sat Dec 7, 2019, 11:32 PM

23. more #'s 4 U:

 

18-24 56% D v. 35% R
Population of all registered voters in 2018:
18-44yrs - 98,785K
65-74yrs 30,699K
If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for:
Undecided

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Response to floppyboo (Reply #21)

Sun Dec 8, 2019, 03:33 AM

24. Even if an increase in youth turnout went 100% to Sanders, which it wouldn't...

 

...Sanders still wouldn't stand a chance at becoming the nominee. He got absolutely trounced among Black folks in 2016. He lost so badly you'd think he was a Republican. I see no reason to think he's going to do much, much, MUCH better among Black folks in 2020. If he doesn't, he's done after Nevada. It's really that simple.

And he's lost some of his support from 2016. He'll be lucky to break even with the gain of supporters who weren't old enough to vote in 2016. Again, I'm pretty confident that Sanders is at or very near his ceiling.
If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for:
Undecided

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Response to myohmy2 (Reply #17)

Sat Dec 7, 2019, 11:04 PM

20. ...

 

If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for:
Joe Biden

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