Do you believe the person who has the most pledged delegates after super tuesday will be the nominee

[Tiggeroshii]

Just curious. I for one will be supporting that person regardless of who they are until they fall behind in pledged delegates.

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[TexasTowelie]

1. Yes.

There are only two other dates after Super Tuesday where a large number of delegates will be determined. The first one is two weeks after Super Tuesday and the second is at the end of April when several mid-Atlantic and New England states have primaries. If one of the candidates has a 200 delegate lead or more, then it is virtually impossible that other candidates will be able to catch up because of the proportional allocation rules.

[RandySF]

2. History would indicate.

[Garrett78]

3. It depends on how large the lead is. The biggest thing to look for is...

...who, if anyone, is winning a clear majority of the Black vote. That's how we knew in 2016 that the race was over after the first Super Tuesday. To this day, there seem to be Sanders supporters who don't accept that reality, that the race was effectively over in early March.

[OldRed2450]

5. The reason why the supporters did not accept it is...

the candidate was telling them there was still a chance. First arguing superdelgates could go to him and 2nd.. awaiting the FBI findings on Hillary. It's true, this happened

[Garrett78]

7. To this day, though, many don't seem to acknowledge that reality. Instead...

...some will suggest that it was a really close race until the end. It wasn't. It was effectively over after the first Super Tuesday. It should have been obvious at the time, but with the advantage of hindsight regarding superdelegates and the nonsense about Clinton being investigated, it boggles the mind that there could still be people who don't accept that Clinton had the nomination wrapped up in early March.

But, I suppose, if people accepted that reality, they would also have to accept the reality that Sanders has no chance at winning the nomination in 2020 unless he does much, much, MUCH better than last time among POC, particularly Black voters. And there's no reason to believe that he will, so it's better to stick one's head in the sand.

[karynnj]

4. It depends on by how much

At the extreme, consider that the top two could be within 1 delegate of each other. In that case, neither would be the de facto nominee and it is entirely possible that the number two might be better positioned to end all the primaries with more if the remaining states are better for him.

Remember 2008. Obama was better prepared for the next set of states after SuperTuesday ended with Obama very slightly ahead in pledged delegates even as HRC won the big states. Had Clinton been the one ahead in the next set of states, she could have won.

[loyalsister]

6. I think it's way too early for me to speculate

This primary is very different from those I have followed previously. I have no expectations yet and am waiting it out.

[brooklynite]

8. Chairman Perez does...

[Tiggeroshii]

9. Why do you say that?

[brooklynite]

10. He mentioned it at a DNC lunch I was at...

[Tiggeroshii]

11. It is a more than reasonable assumption. But there are plenty of scenarios where it definitely canno

Or should not happen.