Bernie Sanders isn't polling in first place. His caucus organization may mean that doesn't matter

[booley]

Among likely Democratic caucusgoers who named Sanders as their top candidate in the November poll, 57% said their minds were made up. For comparison, 27% of November poll leader Pete Buttigieg's supporters said the same. It allows Sanders to focus on adding to his support, instead of splitting that effort with making sure supporters don't drift to other camps, Sterzenbach said.
.........

That enthusiasm also puts Sanders on solid ground for caucus night, even if he doesn't grow his support significantly, Sterzenbach said. The 2008 Iowa caucuses hold the turnout record with about 240,000 participants. Even if 2020 tops that, a crowded field could make for thin margins to reach the 15% viability threshold at the precinct level. (Sterzenbach predicted the 2020 caucus turnout would be between 2016's 176,000 participants and 2008's record.)

Every campaign wants its support to peak on caucus night, but Sanders' support has a "steadiness" that could prove more valuable, Sterzenbach said.

Link

Just to reinforce this, in the latest Quinnipac poll, while Sanders is in third place for overall likely voters, he is first as far as those who are "Very Likely to vote for hi. Followed closely behind by Warren. That enthusiasm extends beyond Iowa fro what I have seen.

[Thekaspervote]

1. No he won't make a clean sweep in IA far from it

Breaking
Iowa Caucus (CBS / YouGov)
@JoeBiden : 22%
Sanders: 22%
Buttigieg: 21%
Warren: 18%


Sanders got 40% of Democratic Primary vote in '16, he's running half that this time. Even if he got 100% of Warren's support, he'd still be behind his '16 vote total which has nothing to do with media coverage. Sanders is a known entity, not a newbie. thehill.com

Iowa, NH, NV and SC @MorningConsult Poll:

Biden 25%
Sanders 20%
Buttigieg 13%
Warren 12%
Steyer 9%
Gabbard 4%
Harris 4%
Yang 3%
Bloomberg 2%
Klobuchar 2%
Booker 2%

[thesquanderer]

20. What matters most is coming in first. He was a hair behind HRC in 2016, and that was crucial.

The fact the he did so much better than many had expected was not nearly as much of a story.

[LongtimeAZDem]

26. She had a 20% lead on him; that more than "a hair"

[thesquanderer]

31. In Iowa??? (n/t)

[LongtimeAZDem]

33. My bad. Sorry

[InAbLuEsTaTe]

2. These posts merely confirm fear of Bernie's pending victory... perfectly understandable!

Bernie/Elizabeth or Elizabeth/Bernie 2020!!
Either way, they're stronger together!!
Welcome to the revolution!!!

[Thekaspervote]

5. Your opinion.. not based on the numbers!!

[booley]

8. if I am reaing your number correctly, Sanders will qualify for Delegates

He seems well above the 15% required to get delegates.

And if it's about enthusiasm, this goes beyond Iowa.

Personally, it seems weird to me that some are focusing on how Sanders did in 2016 when there were only two candidates and ignoring how the current crop of contenders will do against each other.

But in any case, time will tell. Common wisdom was Sanders wouldn't even have this much support, that he would have dropped out by now.

[InAbLuEsTaTe]

10. True that... Bernie & Elizabeth will be unstoppable!!

Bernie/Elizabeth or Elizabeth/Bernie 2020!!
Either way, they're stronger together!!
Welcome to the revolution!!!

[ehrnst]

37. I think that Warren could do SO, SO much better for a VP choice.

There are successful, accomplished Senators available to choose from:

[Thekaspervote]

14. I didn't say he wouldn't qualify for delegates, I said it wouldn't be a clean sweep for him

[ehrnst]

39. Well, common wisdom would have certainly posited that if one was warned

about the mysogyny of a candidate, and that candidate was tossed out of Justice Democrats for misogyny, and warned to stay out of that candidate's campaign, that someone wouldn't have gone ahead and endorsed said misogynistic candidate...

Perhaps a someone who refuses to listen to anyone who doesn't agree with them lockstep isn't really open to "common wisdom."

[George II]

12. The NY Giants are 2-10 so far this year, but they're going to win the Super Bowl!!!!!!

Just my opinion!

[Thekaspervote]

16. +1000

[TexasTowelie]

27. I was going to predict the Cowboys to win the Super Bowl after the first three weeks.

They are 6-7 now. Thank goodness the Giants make the Cowboys look great.

[George II]

28. Unbelievably the Cowboys are in first place in their division.

[TexasTowelie]

30. Yes, I know.

They will also lose in the first round at home when they play the #5 seed. That's why I haven't ironed my Cowboys T-shirt since I moved.

[ehrnst]

35. +1000.

[George II]

11. Riiiight. He isn't in first place but everyone is quaking in their boots because of his....

...."pending" (i.e., IMpending) victory. Sure.

[NurseJackie]

21. Haven't you heard? He's being erased?

ERASED, I tells ya!

[ehrnst]

34. .....

https://www.goodtherapy.org/blog/psychpedia/magical-thinking

[George II]

3. I'm watching MNF between the Giants and the Eagles, the Eagles are losing, but....

...the head coach just said "if we lose it doesn't matter!"

[booley]

13. Bill Clinton lost Iowa caucus in 92

While the Iowa caucus can be predictive who will be the nominee, it isn't 100%

An there are 49 other states plus the District of Columbia.

I think Super Tuesday will be a better predictor. Especially given how many delegates California has to offer. And there will be fewer hanger ons eating away at the margins (which at this point would actually help the centrist candidate more then the progressive one.

Though currently Sanders is leading in California.

[TexasTowelie]

32. Bernie will need to win California

by at least 5 points and hope that Biden doesn't reach the 15% threshold to offset the margin Biden will build in Texas and the other southern states on Super Tuesday. The CNN poll released today shows Biden up by 1% in California.

[beastie boy]

4. Sterzenbach is confused.

On the one hand, he postulates that the support from Bernie's fans "allows Sanders to focus on adding to his support, instead of splitting that effort with making sure supporters don't drift to other camps", and on the other, "that enthusiasm also puts Sanders on solid ground for caucus night, even if he doesn't grow his support significantly," So even if Bernie doesn't split his resources and focuses entirely on growing his base, it doesn't make much difference if he fails miserably at it.

Not sure what he is trying to say there... is he lowering expectations for Bernie's winning strategy?

[Thekaspervote]

6. Good point.. sounds like lowering expectations to keep his supporters from drifting

[booley]

15. Even though they arent' drifitng?

The data that Sanders supporters are way more committed to their candidate doesn't come from Serzenbach.

IF one reads the article, it seems more likely they are talking beyond just what will happen in Iowa.

[Thekaspervote]

17. half of his 40% 2016 number doesn't sound like he's holding on to his 2016 base

Sanders got 40% of Democratic Primary vote in '16, he's running half that this time. Even if he got 100% of Warren's support, he'd still be behind his '16 vote total which has nothing to do with media coverage. Sanders is a known entity, not a newbie. thehill.com

[brooklynite]

18. Based on actually being on the ground in Iowa, rather than just blogging...

Warren has the best ground operation in the State. Buttigieg is a close second. The challenge of Iowa is that its not enough to have people say they'll vote for you. You need a volunteer squad to round them up and KEEP them at the Caucus site for 2-3 hours on a cold winters night.

[NYMinute]

19. WIshful thinking abounds nt

[LanternWaste]

22. I.e,, "Bernie meant to stumble, trip and fall. It's all part of his genius plan"

[MrsCoffee]

23. Bernie spin is like Bernie math.

After trying to sell he is stronger and healthier after a heart attack, now we are back to selling losing as winning.

Fanatics.

[Happy Hoosier]

24. Caucuses are undemocratic bullshit. NT

[brooklynite]

29. I spoke to a Party official last night who concurs that Warren has the best ground operation in Iowa

...and Buttigieg is probably second.

Polling is an expression of future intent, but a successful Iowa campaign requires a staff organization to make sure voters arrive at the Caucus site, stick around for 2-3 hours of multi-round voting, and don't get poached by another campaign.

[LongtimeAZDem]

36. What a beautiful admission of the undemocratic nature of caucuses

[Hortensis]

38. NO, Sanders is not #1 for probable voters. That's ridiculous.

His followers were among the least likely to vote, or even to be able to (many didn't bother to register), last time.