Personal Prediction: Bloomberg will be our Democratic Nominee

[bluewater]

Money talks. And right now the money has talked Bloomberg into a virtual 4th place tie with Pete Buttigieg according to The Economist's polling model:

Biden 26%
Sanders 17%
Warren 16%
Buttigieg 8%
Bloomberg 7%

https://projects.economist.com/democratic-primaries-2020/

RCP POLLS also shows Bloomberg moving up fast on Buttigieg:

Biden 27.8%
Sanders 19.3%
Warren 15.2%
Buttigieg 8.3%
Bloomberg 5.0%

https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2020/president/us/2020_democratic_presidential_nomination-6730.html

Michael Bloomberg has committed to spending AT LEAST $100,000,000.00 of his own money in his presidential bid, some reports say he is prepared to spend up to a BILLION dollars!

His add blitz has already moved him into 5th place, and he is closing in on the 4th slot.

Let's face it, when all is said and done, his massive high dollar media blitz will ensure him the nomination.
As a Warren supporter, I find it very difficult to have to, in Jill Biden's words, "swallow" this reality, but face it... Bloomberg is inevitable.

Sigh.

Well, I will support the Democratic nominee, no matter who it is. Even a billionaire.

[David__77]

1. I find that highly unlikely.

There are examples of wealthy candidates spending a lot and getting little in return. Should he somehow pass up Biden, the race would be quite interesting.

[PubliusEnigma]

2. Bloomberg is even less of a Democrat than Sanders.

He doesn't have a chance, but I welcome any anti-Trump ad buys he wants to make.

[Cornus]

60. Sanders is more of a Democrat...

...than most of those who have a *D* after their names. Who cares what he calls himself; listen to what he says!

[Thekaspervote]

3. OMG that is hilarious!!

[bluewater]

8. According to the 538 model Biden is at 26.2% not even breaking 30%

check that out yourself:

https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/president-primary-d/national/

THIS is why Michael Bloomberg thinks he can win the nomination, no candidate is able to clear even 30% in the polls.

And the trend is that virtually every candidate is either barely flat or trending downwards in the polls.

Bloomberg has seen this and is committing $100 MILLION to his presidential bid.

Don't believe he can win? Money talks in presidential politics.

Time will tell.

[Thekaspervote]

11. No... I don't believe he can win....

[TexasTowelie]

14. Some television stations will gladly take Bloomberg's money.

However, the general public isn't buying what is being sold.

[bluewater]

22. He's closing in on 4th place already...

https://projects.economist.com/democratic-primaries-2020/

Time will tell.

Hmmm. A Bloomberg-Klobuchar ticket could have some real legs. Remember, you heard THAT here first!

[TexasTowelie]

31. Are those legs

frog, chicken, or turkey?

However, since you are so convinced of their potential here is one for Amy and you.

I personally don't have anything against either of them, but that ticket is about as exciting as watching a group of slugs racing in the 100 yard dash. Place your bets!

[bluewater]

35. That ticket would win the oh so important upper Midwest.

Bloomberg has cross-party appeal, having won elected office as a Republican, and Amy Klobuchar is the real-deal Midwesterner that has won in right wing lean districts in Minnesota.

Some people say we need a moderate ticket to win in 2020 against tRump, well that's one moderate ticket that would beat him.



I rather not have it come to that, but anyone that can beat Trump is OK with me.

[Zorro]

38. Bloomberg indeed has cross-party appeal

His extreme wealth will be appealing to Republicans who consider that important, and being a former "Republican" (in name only) will appeal to those Republicans that are sick of Trump.

He's not a perfect candidate, but he's on the right side of many important issues of the day.

And I agree that a Bloomberg/Klobuchar ticket would be a strong one. Plus he absolutely despises Trump, and makes no bones about it. I like that in a candidate.

[TexasTowelie]

44. I disagree as to your comment about the ticket being a strong one,

but the fact that Bloomberg despises Trump is one of his redeeming qualities so I'll give credit where credit is due.

[TexasTowelie]

43. Okay.

Some people say we need a moderate ticket to win in 2020 against tRump, well that's one moderate ticket that would beat him.

Change "that would beat him" to "that may beat him" and I will agree with you. I've come to accept that no matter how improbable an event may occur, there is always that random chance of the improbable outcome. "I will win the Powerball lottery on Christmas" is one example of an improbable event that I hope for which is why I bought a ticket.

...anyone that can beat Trump is OK with me.

Satan for President!!!

[Recursion]

49. That would be an interesting ticket (nt)

[Qutzupalotl]

53. Simple math. A large number of candidates means

votes are divided. It would be unrealistic to expect a single candidate to get, say 50%, in a crowded field. Whereas in a two- or three-person race, it would not be so difficult.

[SKKY]

57. The only polls we should be looking at are the head-to-head polls...

...against Trump in MI, WI, OH, PA, FL, and AZ. Those are the states that will decide the election. We should also be spending more of our time, much more, on the Senate races we may be able to flip. I personally think if we focus on flipping the Senate, the WH will follow suit. But if Trump somehow manages to thread the needle again, it won’t matter in a Democratic controlled Senate.

[squirecam]

61. It still matters

He can do a lot of damage as President. He just won’t get judges anymore.

[pwb]

4. Bloombergs message is helpful but our nominee? Nah.

.

[Downtown Hound]

5. Um, no. n/t

[Sloumeau]

6. Mr. Stop And Frisk will never get enough African American votes

[GitRDun]

42. +1000

It is just laughable how much on this board folks project the winner based on anything other than how people of color feel about the candidate. Know who your party is....We're the party that looks like folks you see at the mall.

Money is irrelevant, what Iowa and New Hampshire think....ha!

Show me a candidate who the WHOLE party sees and is comfortable with and I'll show you the winner.

It's not ole stop and frisk, that's for sure.

[MFM008]

7. Um

No.

[bucolic_frolic]

9. Not going to happen.

He can't even campaign as well as Ross Perot.

[bluewater]

13. Perhaps. But he was elected mayor of NYC three times...

And if he actually is ready to spend up to a BILLION dollars in his presidential bid, well, we are all in uncharted territory.

He already has committed $100 MILLION just to the start of his Democratic Primary campaign.

[TexasTowelie]

16. NYC is vastly different from the rest of the US.

Might as well ask a group of nuns in a convent who they prefer since the results will be just as accurate.

[bluewater]

21. Time will tell.

He's already gotten much more traction in the polls than Steyer. When he moves past Buttigieg into the 4th slot, people will start paying a lot of attention to him nationally.

[TexasTowelie]

28. I would say "if" instead of "when".

He gets a few points for name recognition since he was mayor of NYC and owns a media company. Steyer's name isn't on much of anything, neither is Buttigieg's.

[YOHABLO]

10. Well I don't know about that. He doesn't have much to offer.

[Thekaspervote]

12. You're right... does not support $15 minimum wage. Thinks legalization of marijuana is the

“Dumbest thing.”
Dismal support among the AA voting block

[bluewater]

17. Isn't Biden against legalization of marijuana too?

Yep. While backing decriminalizing marijuana, Biden is still against changing the federal laws.

Why Weed Advocates Aren’t Happy About Joe Biden’s Candidacy
Sorry, stoners, but when it comes to marijuana legalization, Biden is basically the worst candidate in the race

https://www.rollingstone.com/culture/culture-features/joe-biden-weed-war-drugs-candidate-2020-827319/

[WA-03 Democrat]

55. Nope

Biden is for more research, protect states rights to legalize and expunging a low quantity marijuana arrests. For more research Marijuana would have to be moved from a schedule one to at least a schedule two or reschedule three. Schedule one drugs are ones that offered no human benefit and no research can be done. Obviously he wants to research a drug which every drug goes through. I think it’s a good idea to let the scientist and the facts play out. That is progress.

Now I am going to smoke a joint in the state of Washington. Durban Poison if anyone wants to know.

Go Joe Go!

[USALiberal]

15. You forgot the sarcasm tag! nt

[bluewater]

19. Pete might not think it's sarcasm.

Bloomberg is a serious challenger, people can underestimate him and what vast wealth can do at their own political peril.

https://projects.economist.com/democratic-primaries-2020/

[House of Roberts]

18. Unless he gets over 15% in an individual state primary.

He's not going anywhere.

[bluewater]

20. Very true. nt

[bluewater]

23. Bloomberg-Klobuchar Ticket

Remember, you heard THAT here first!

[Awsi Dooger]

46. I would sign up for Bloomberg/Klobuchar right now

A white male atop the ticket simply offers greatest margin for error. Anyone who doesn't understand or accept that simply is in denial. I have tons of friends who are scared and angry right wing males. They mock virtually every Democrat and especially the strong female types. They absolutely despised Hillary. That type of male would respect Michael Bloomberg. Besides, when you are facing an incumbent whose party has been in power only one term you can't forfeit 1% here and 1% there. That's what nominating a female would accomplish. That's what nominating someone from the more liberal wing would accomplish.

I've always loved Klobuchar but realistically she would need a weaker Trump to prevail, a late 2017 version Trump with approval ratings in the high 30s. That is not going to be the situational reality in fall 2020, not unless the economy sharply tanks.

If the stock market continues to climb and the economy is considered in good shape in summer 2020 we'd be brain dead to nominate someone who isn't considered to have strength in monetary matters. Billionaires are allowed that benefit of a doubt...rightful or not.

I thought Beto would be the best option for white male atop the ticket above Klobuchar. I never really considered Bloomberg. But after listening to a bus full of older white golf fans a month ago agreeing that the only two Democrats they would consider above Trump are Biden and Bloomberg, I paid attention in a hurry. That type of anecdotal stuff can be more valuable than any poll.

I like Biden but he does not have Bloomberg's upside. If we nominate Biden then it's virtually guaranteed to be another razor thin either-way margin like 2016. As I posted one year ago, Joe Biden would be like our version of Bob Dole in 1996. Republicans didn't know what to do in 1996. They only knew that they despised Bill Clinton. They rationalized an older mainstay like Bob Dole who was well into his 70s and had been long term senator and vice presidential nominee. Someone who had run for president multiple times previously (1980, 1988) and never really threatened the nomination.

Biden has greater chance than Dole in 1996 only because Trump will own far lower approval ratings than Clinton did. But make no mistake, Biden would be like relying on a horse from the back of the barn. We couldn't actually be surprised if he weakens down the stretch and gives way.

Bloomberg's commercials are excellent, including the placement. I am taping the college football bowl games and seeing Bloomberg ads all over the place. That is a great way to pick off white male voters one at a time. It was the same type of thing Trump was doing at this time 4 years ago.

[Baked Potato]

54. I can see that being a winning ticket

I want to see a female President, but sadly misogyny is still strong in America. I think misogyny trumps racism and even anti-gay in the US.

[ritapria]

24. 1st Post Debate Poll from Morning Consult

Biden 31% .. Bernie 21% ... Warren 15% ... Buttigieg 9%.. Bloomberg 6%.. Yang 5% .. Booker , Klobuchar , Steyer tied at 3% . National .Poll of Democratic Party College Students : Bernie 38% .. Warren 24%... Yang 12% .. Biden 7%.. Buttigieg 7%... Bloomberg 3%.. Booker 2% .. Source : College Insights Weekly Tracking Poll

[bluewater]

25. Wow, Bloomberg at 6% and he wasn't even in the debate.

I hate to be right on this, but Bloomberg is going to go very far just because he will spend 100's of MILLIONS, perhaps even a BILLION dollars, on his campaign.

But, as par for the course with Morning Consult, not a lot of movement in this poll.

[jrthin]

27. I hope not.

[liskddksil]

29. Wait til the Negative Ads get run that expose him speaking at the 2004 RNC in support of W

and his endorsements of numerous GOP senators that have enabled Moscow Mitch's majority. This includes Pat Toomey who won by a hair in 2016 since Bloomberg's faux Gun Control group gave him credibility in the Philadelphis suburbs.

[MerryBlooms]

47. For never trumpers, that is a plus and so is his stop n frisk program.

[Zorro]

59. Winston Churchill changed political parties twice

It's an example of an extraordinary politician switching teams during their career.

[Historic NY]

30. No way

[karynnj]

32. Getting to 7% after something like 4 weeks of intensive advertising

does not mean that his gain will continue growing at that initial rate. It will be interesting to see if there is some point at which more ads will have relatively little additional impact. There may be a saturation of the people likely to respond.

Not to mention, no other candidate has yet to even moderately attack him -- and there are issues where he is NOT in line with Democrats. Part of his problem is that he is genuinely between the two parties. That makes his chance of winning the primary lower than someone who is and always was a Democrat.

[bluewater]

36. very true.

It's going to be very interesting to see exactly what money can buy vis a vis the primary.

[Nay]

58. Yep. And it will be fun to watch loads of people not vote because the rich guys have,

obviously, sewn this fucker up.

[Hortensis]

33. Bloomberg's money hasn't reached our house. No to

buying Democratic elections. No malice to Bloomberg personally, but NO to billionaires period.

"We can have democracy in this country, OR we can have great wealth concentrated in the hands of a few, but we can't have both." Nancy Pelosi quoting pre- New Deal Justice Louis Brandeis to the nation at the opening of the 116th congress.

[dawg day]

34. Remember the Starbucks guy?

Bloomberg might be the next billionaire flameout.

I wish -- I mean, it's his money. But I wish if he cared about defeating Trump, he'd go the Adelson route and give money to the party and candidates.

[BlueMTexpat]

37. I really do not believe so.

[bluewater]

40. Bloomberg is the inevitable result of money's influence on elections

Wine caves, high end bundlers, Super Pacs… it has all led us to a billionaire stating he is ready and willing to spend 100's of MILLIONS and perhaps even a BILLION dollars in his presidential bid.

People here on DU keep saying we should take money from anyone as long as it's legal, well, Bloomberg is the extreme example of the super wealthy buying political influence.

And the sad thing is he will definitely be a factor in the Democratic primary, people just have not woken up to that fact yet. Hence the purpose of my posts.

[BlueMTexpat]

48. He'll likely be a

factor in the primaries, yes.

But he will NOT resonate with the majority of Dem voters.

[redqueen]

39. If so, then get ready for 4 more years of trump. nt

[MichMan]

41. What if he runs third party?

Who does he take votes away from?

[highplainsdem]

45. Don't think so.

[cwydro]

50. Interesting thought.

I certainly can’t say it’s impossible.

[SWBTATTReg]

51. I wish him the best, but I do feel like there are other very good candidates out there now. ...

Money does talk though, but when one puts their own money into the game, more power to them, and after the scumbag so called billionaire rump, anybody in the entire spectrum of democratic nominees is far better than he is. Already 3 years into his term, has been impeached, is an unnamed conspirator, a racist and a bigot, and this is the tip probably of the iceberg, being that we haven't heard all of the crap rump has been doing, behind the scenes.

What rump is certainly not doing, is being presidential, not concerned w/ the general welfare of everyday Americans, seems more likely to believe the Russians instead of our 17 intelligence agencies, etc.

[greatauntoftriplets]

52. Is today April Fool's Day?

[Dan]

56. Funny I was telling my wife the same thing

I think he will get the nomination and win. Money talks. Plus, as the man said, America is not a Country, it is a business.

[Aaron Pereira]

62. He's already spent $100m and that's pocket change to Bloomberg.

I think he's looking for an opening in the form of a brokered convention. There he would make his case to be a consensus nominee and likely offer full spectrum financial support of Dem incumbents and the party all up and down the line.

I'm with Warren until the end but he can make a strong run against Trump with his financial resources and there is no denying Bloomberg is a capable candidate.