Congratulations to our presumptive Democratic nominee, Joe Biden!
State of the Battleground - December edition
Well, with the exception of Pennsylvania, ALL of our frontrunners are continuing to lose ground as the attacks on each other, instead of Trump ramps up. Biden overall still shows the strongest (and so remains in my signature), but do note, many of those light blues are BARELY there now. This is also the very first time any of our frontrunners maps show a loss vs Trump.
September edition here:
https://www.democraticunderground.com/1287282316
October edition here:
https://www.democraticunderground.com/1287299279
November edition here:
https://www.democraticunderground.com/1287334724
Highlights: 4 new polls since the last update with updates in Pennsylvania, Michigan, Arizona, and Wisconsin. All 3 of our frontrunners have gained ground in Pennsylvania when matched vs Trump, but have suffered losses in Michigan, Arizona, and Wisconsin. These issues attacks on each other are having effect.
States in bold have updated results:
Florida - 29 electoral votes - No new poll since the November report.
https://www.unf.edu/uploadedFiles/aa/coas/porl/FLStatewideNationalPollwCross.pdf
https://github.com/ndcohn/battleground-poll-2019/blob/master/FL110419%20Crosstabs.pdf
Biden: UNF +5 win, NYT +2 win.
Warren: UNF +3 win, NYT -4 loss.
Sanders: no UNF, NYT -1 loss.
Pennsylvania - 20 Electoral votes - New Morning Call Poll. MOE is 6.
https://www.muhlenberg.edu/media/contentassets/pdf/academics/polisci/PA_Pres_Nov_2019__Report_%20(1).pdf
Biden: +9 win, up from +3 win in November NY Times/Siena poll Net gain of 6 points.
Warren: +5 win, up from -1 loss in November NY Times/Siena poll - Net gain of 6 points.
Sanders: +5 win, up from +1 win in November NY Times/Siena poll - net gain of 4 points.
Ohio - 18 electoral votes - Emerson from early October (was used in last months figures) - MoE 3.2
https://emersonpolling.reportablenews.com/pr/ohio-2020-statistical-dead-heat-with-biden-sanders-and-warren-in-democratic-primary
Biden: +6 win - same poll used in October report.
Warren: +4 win - same poll used in October report
Sanders: +6 win - same poll used in October report
Michigan - 16 Electoral votes - new NY Times/Siena poll - MOE 5.1
https://github.com/ndcohn/battleground-poll-2019/blob/master/MI110419%20Crosstabs.pdf
Biden: +1 win, down from +12 win in the October Emerson poll - net loss of 11 points.
Warren: -5 loss, down from +8 win in the October Emerson poll - net loss of 13 points.
Sanders: +4 win, down from +12 win in the October Emerson poll - net loss of 8 points.
Arizona - 11 electoral votes - New OH Predictive Insights poll. MOE 3.9
https://www.dropbox.com/s/6rhlttfgxw5gk95/Presidental%20Report.pdf
Biden: -2 loss, down 2 points from the October Emerson report.
Warren: -6 loss, down 6 points from the October Emerson report.
Sanders: -13 loss, down 11 points from the October Emerson report.
Wisconsin: 10 Electoral votes - New Marquette poll. MOE is 4.1.
https://github.com/ndcohn/battleground-poll-2019/blob/master/WI110419%20Crosstabs.pdf
Biden: +1 win, down 3 points from the October NY Times/Siena poll.
Warren: -1 loss, down 1 point from the October NY Times/Siena poll.
Sanders: -2 loss, down 4 points from the October NY Times/Siena poll.
Based on these polls, these maps are how the election would look if the polls were election reality. As before, ties remain battleground color, win/loss within the MOE are colored light red/blue as "leans", and a win or loss outside the MOE is dark red/blue.
Joe Biden Map
Elizabeth Warren Map
Bernie Sanders Map
If I were to vote in a presidentialprimary today, I would vote for: Undecided
= new reply since forum marked as read
If I were to vote in a presidentialprimary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden
If I were to vote in a presidentialprimary today, I would vote for: Undecided
