Politico Claims Dems Think Bernie Can 'Win the Nomination' Even Though Zero of Them Said That

[highplainsdem]

From Tommy Christopher at Mediaite:


https://www.mediaite.com/opinion/politico-claims-dems-think-bernie-can-win-the-nomination-even-though-zero-of-them-said-that/

A new article from Politico claims that Democratic insiders are saying that Independent Vermont Senator and Democratic presidential candidate Bernie Sanders “could win the nomination” even though none of the Democrats quoted said that.

On Thursday, Politico published an article entitled “Democratic insiders: Bernie could win the nomination” that quoted a number of prominent figures urging that Sanders’ candidacy be taken seriously, but none of them came close to predicting a Sanders victory in the primary.

For example, Dan Pfeiffer, a former senior adviser to President Barack Obama, said “I believe people should take him very seriously,” noted Sanders’ polling strength in early states like Iowa, Vermont, and Nevada, and said that Sanders “could build a real head of steam heading into South Carolina and Super Tuesday.”

The bulk of the article consists of observations about Sanders’ consistency and resiliency, noting his return to a strong second place following a surge by Senator Elizabeth Warren and a heart attack in October. But there was also a lot of virtual ink dedicated to the proposition that Sanders has not had to weather political attacks that will surely come, and the only quote to address the final result of the contest was Third Way co-founder Matt Bennet’s declaration that “He can’t win the nomination.”

-snip-

None of this is really news, it’s a state of play that has existed for quite a long time. But Democratic insiders actually saying Sanders could win makes a pretty decent headline the day after Christmas, when everyone is desperate for content. It might even spawn a cable news segment or two from cable news networks thirsty for something to fill the airtime. And the fact that none of these insiders actually said it makes a good headline for websites seeking only to inform the public, regardless of thirst.

The truth is that Bernie Sanders has not been taken seriously enough in the political coverage of the Democratic primary race. That has worked somewhat to his advantage, as Politico notes, because he has escaped the kind of scrutiny that might negatively impact him. Elizabeth Warren sank in the polls after she was pressured into releasing plans to finance Medicare for All that included not even voting on Medicare for All until the end of her first term.

But Sanders has yet to release such a plan, and the worst he has suffered from it is to have one of his rivals, Minnesota Senator Amy Klobuchar, laud him for being “honest” about raising taxes. And while Biden has had to contend, from day one, with attacks dating back as far as his days as a teenage lifeguard in Delaware, the Sanders files have barely been cracked open.

-snip-

Link to that Politico article:

https://www.politico.com/news/2019/12/26/can-bernie-sanders-win-2020-election-president-089636

[Kurt V.]

1. some journalist: not spelling out your actual plan for this or that is a winning formula.

[msongs]

2. politico the graveyard of the worst hacks lol nt

[NurseJackie]

68. Tell me about it. Their "writers" are the WORST! Copying-and-pasting from press releases...

Tell me about it. Their "writers" are the WORST! Copying-and-pasting from press releases is not journalism.

[The Valley Below]

3. Politico is largely an outlet for shills who barely disguise their agendas.

One look at the byline and one knows the angle in advance.

That's propaganda not journalism.

[still_one]

18. +++

[NurseJackie]

69. "That's propaganda not journalism." --- Yes indeed.

That's propaganda not journalism.

Yes indeed. And copying-and-pasting from campaign press releases and PAC press releases is not journalism either. It's lazy.

[demgrrrll]

4. Not if he is polling at 15% with African Americans with a ceiling of 21%.

He will not be the nominee if those numbers do not improve.

[Tiggeroshii]

5. African Americans are not the only voter group.

Bernie is leading with both whites and non-whites overall.

[highplainsdem]

9. No, Sanders ISN'T leading with both whites and non-whites overall.

Not according to the latest YouGov poll, which has Biden leading among whites, blacks, and Hispanics:

https://d25d2506sfb94s.cloudfront.net/cumulus_uploads/document/t4lyjjoemc/econTabReport.pdf


Not according to the last CNN poll:

https://cdn.cnn.com/cnn/2019/images/12/19/rel14b.-.2020.pdf


An Emerson College poll did find Sanders leading among Hispanics -- though I think that was an outlier -- but it found Biden leading with white and black voters:

http://emersonpolling.com/2019/12/18/december-national-poll-biden-and-sanders-pull-away-from-the-pack-as-warren-falls/


Quinnipiac found Biden leading among both black and white voters:

https://poll.qu.edu/national/release-detail?ReleaseID=3652



I could go on, but you get the idea.

The ONLY demographic group Sanders tends to lead with is the youngest and LEAST RELIABLE group of voters.

For whom Sanders is offering free college and student loan forgiveness, no matter how wealthy they are, which is one hell of an inducement.

[Tiggeroshii]

12. He s leading among non whites in latest marist and all the polls you shared

-except the first.


https://www.npr.org/2019/12/16/788231791/npr-pbs-newshour-marist-poll-biden-sanders-lead-2020-democratic-race.

And he is only very competitive among whites.

[InAbLuEsTaTe]

15. GOOOOOAAAALLLLLLLL Tiggeroshii!!!

Bernie/Elizabeth or Elizabeth/Bernie 2020!!
Either way, they're stronger together & can't be bought!!
Jump on the Bernie Bandwagon & join the revolution!!

[highplainsdem]

16. That Marist poll is an outlier.

[Tiggeroshii]

19. Apparently the rest that you shared are too

[highplainsdem]

20. Telemundo poll of Latino voters in CA, TX and NV:

https://www.democraticunderground.com/1287347321

[Tiggeroshii]

21. Holy dated information, batman!!

[highplainsdem]

33. That poll's only a few weeks older than the Marist poll. Do you know of a more recent poll of only

Hispanic voters?

[Tiggeroshii]

35. Try a month

That's a millennium in political terms.


Marist and emerson are both within the last week or so. http://emersonpolling.com/2019/12/18/december-national-poll-biden-and-sanders-pull-away-from-the-pack-as-warren-falls/

[highplainsdem]

36. No, it isn't. But keep clinging to your cherrypicked poll...

[Tiggeroshii]

37. .

Last edited Fri Dec 27, 2019, 12:10 AM - Edit history (1)

This and the marist poll are within a week old. The other was dated early November. We are in late december: that is almost two months. And opinion has already changed substantially since then.


http://emersonpolling.com/2019/12/18/december-national-poll-biden-and-sanders-pull-away-from-the-pack-as-warren-falls/

[highplainsdem]

38. Well, the Emerson poll you cite there had Sanders down 2 points and Warren down 8 points from a

month before, and Biden up by 5 points. Do you like that trend?

And it makes the same point I've been making -- that Sanders' base is younger voters.

I see no reason to disbelieve the Telemundo poll of Latino voters.

[Tiggeroshii]

44. He is well positioned in the early states, and the more recent polls show him leading non-whites.

Also note the rapidly changing opinions: 70% of voters say they will change their minds before their primary. Based on the polling, that is the case.

[highplainsdem]

45. LOL. Keep dreaming...

[Tiggeroshii]

46. Two months from now, I won't be the one dreaming.

But I admire your fortitude and faith!

[highplainsdem]

47. Biden's led all year. The Sanders mini-surge is probably partly a sympathy vote because of

his heart attack, and partly due to Warren making some mistakes.

The also-rans keep reshuffling in the race for 2nd place after Biden.

[Tiggeroshii]

48. So far the only things you've had to back that up are several b- or below rated polls, a nearly

2 month old poll, and lots of baseless speculation. But good luck!

Two polls (A- and A+ rated) show Bernie leading non white voters, and they were conducted within a week. Those are the voters that he is expected to build on and buoy him to the nomination.

[highplainsdem]

50. CNN is A-rated. Quinnipiac is B+. Please try getting some facts right.

And keep clinging to the straws suggesting Sanders might somehow get the nomination.

Biden supporters have watched this now from Harris supporters, Warren supporters, Buttigieg supporters, and now Sanders supporters getting their turn to yell "We're Number Two!!!" as if that's actually being the front-runner, let alone the front-runner for the whole damn year.

And Biden's remained the front-runner despite all the attacks from both his Democratic rivals and their supporters, and Trump and the GOP.

Trump and the GOP haven't begun to go after Sanders yet. They'd love for him to be the nominee instead of Biden.

[Tiggeroshii]

53. Both which have no information pertaining to our discussion.

The ones that do are either old, or below a B rating.




I've already conceded that Bernie is not ahead with white voters.

[InAbLuEsTaTe]

54. Stop with the facts Tiggeroshii... under the "Bernie Standard," you should never let facts

Last edited Fri Dec 27, 2019, 01:27 AM - Edit history (1)

get it in the way of a good Bernie bashing!!


Bernie/Elizabeth or Elizabeth/Bernie 2020!!
Either way, they're stronger together & can't be bought!!
Jump on the Bernie Bandwagon & join the revolution!!

[Tiggeroshii]

55. Shame on me!!

How dare I?

[highplainsdem]

28. You should read more closely.

The CNN poll, which has Biden leading Sanders 26% to 20%, has Biden leading Sanders among white voters 21% to 14%, and among non-white voters 34% to 25%.

The Quinnipiac poll has Biden leading Sanders 30% to 16% overall, has him leading Sanders 22% to 20% among whites and 52% to 6% among blacks.

I've already pointed out that the Emerson poll has Sanders leading with Hispanic voters -- again, I think that's an outlier -- but the poll shows Biden leading Sanders 24% to 22% among whites and 52% to 19% among blacks.

Again, the only demographic group that Sanders frequently leads with is that of the youngest, least reliable voters, the group most likely to find the promise of free college and student debt forgiveness an irresistible inducement (and one which will never happen).

[George II]

39. No he isn't. He's falling further behind.

[Tiggeroshii]

49. I'm convinced!

[George II]

51. I'm glad, thanks...

[Tiggeroshii]

52. Welcome!!!

[TwilightZone]

11. No, he's not.

He's nine points behind Biden in the overall poll average. In addition to leading the poll average, Biden is ahead of Sanders in every one of the twelve individual polls included in the composite.

https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2020/president/us/2020_democratic_presidential_nomination-6730.html

They do not have a demographic breakdown of the composite average, but if you look at the individual polls, Biden is leading Sanders with non-whites, as well.

The Economist, for example, has him ahead of Sanders with blacks (53-15) and Latinos (26-17) with not enough votes in the "Other" category to tabulate:

https://d25d2506sfb94s.cloudfront.net/cumulus_uploads/document/t4lyjjoemc/econTabReport.pdf

Other polls show similar leads for Biden.

[Tiggeroshii]

13. Leading among non whites

https://www.npr.org/2019/12/16/788231791/npr-pbs-newshour-marist-poll-biden-sanders-lead-2020-democratic-race

[highplainsdem]

29. Cherrypick much?

[Tiggeroshii]

56. I'm not the one that chose a 2 month old poll to counter two A rated polls taken within the week.

[highplainsdem]

58. I don't know where you get "taken within the week." The Marist poll was taken over two weeks ago,

the Emerson poll almost two weeks ago. Check the dates.

The Telemundo poll was important because it focused on only Latino voters in three key states, and it found Biden leading in each.

I've seen some polling data suggesting Sanders leads with younger Latino voters and Bden leads with older Latino voters. Again, Sanders does well with the youngest group of voters, who are swayed by what he's promising and less aware of how little chance there is those promises would ever be realized. But those youngest voters are the least reliable.

[Tiggeroshii]

60. You're right

Its almost as bad as calling a two month old poll "a few weeks old."

[highplainsdem]

61. Sigh. Will you please try to get some facts right? I said it was a few weeks older than the Marist

poll.

[Tiggeroshii]

64. Specifically by about a month

That's more than "a few weeks." We've beat this dead horse deader than a horse should be. Have a good night!!!

[Thekaspervote]

24. RCP avg for SC which is the bellwether for the AA voting block Biden 35% sanders 15.3

NO candidate wins without the AA vote... primary or general

It’s wishful thinking that bernie will win... thank goodness

[Tiggeroshii]

34. Every repug wins general without AA. And Bernie is winning non whites, as well as is motivating

Other non whites to vote in large numbers.

[ritapria]

6. Bernie has a realistic chance of being nominated

I don't believe he is the frontrunner ..Biden is the frontrunner and has the best chance of being nominated .. But…...Bernie is only 2% behind Pete in Iowa , slightly ahead of the pack in NH ….He is very well organized in NV and strong with Latinos there ….. His biggest hurdle, by far , is SC where most polls show Biden way ahead ...Bernie needs to win Ia, and NH 1 week later, and parlay that to an upset in NV …. If he pulls off that troika , will Biden's SC firewall , based on the electability argument , hold or crumble ? ...If it crumbles, Bernie will crush it in CA , MN , CO , VT, ME , MA and OK - a primary he won in 2016 ….He will also get a big chunk of delegates in the Southern Super Tuesday States as well ……… Unlike 2016 , he doesn't start out the game way behind the 8- ball because superdelegates can't vote on the first ballot …. Bernie has the highest net favorability and a huge grassroots army no other candidate can match …………….

[Tiggeroshii]

14. Great analysis!

Thanks!!!

[InAbLuEsTaTe]

17. Yes, Joe is CURRENTLY the frontrunner... BUT the trend is Bernie's friend!!

Bernie/Elizabeth or Elizabeth/Bernie 2020!!
Either way, they're stronger together & can't be bought!!
Jump on the Bernie Bandwagon & join the revolution!!

[highplainsdem]

22. Yes, just like the trend was Warren's friend...until it wasn't. LOL.

[Thekaspervote]

25. This!!

[George II]

40. Rah rah rah, sis goombah! Joe is on his way to the nomination AND the presidency.

[Thekaspervote]

27. Your opinion

[George II]

42. Very well organized in NV, but 10% behind Biden! AND barely qualifying in SC....

....close to getting zero in SC.

He'll be out after the polls close on March 3. I just hope he and his followers support Biden once he gets the nomination.

[TexasTowelie]

67. I don't believe that Bernie will do well in any of the southern states.

At best, he might get about one-third of the delegates in southern states. Bernie may even fall below the 15% threshold to receive any allocated delegates in a few southern states. I guess that Biden might get any delegates in Vermont and maybe one or two of the small New England states, but considering the small number of delegates in those states it isn't going to be very meaningful.

[Dopers_Greed]

7. It must be Sander's time to take shots from the circular firing squad

[InAbLuEsTaTe]

23. SERIOUSLY!! But that's just the fear factor and how you know Bernie is increasing in popularity!!

Bernie/Elizabeth or Elizabeth/Bernie 2020!!
Either way, they're stronger together & can't be bought!!
Jump on the Bernie Bandwagon & join the revolution!!

[George II]

43. Increasing in popularity? He hasn't cracked 20% since April - eight months ago!

Joe -

[Cha]

8. Politico again.. making false claims.

Thanks for Tommy Christopher, hpd!

[highplainsdem]

10. You're welcome, Cha! I thought that Politico article needed a reality check.

[Thekaspervote]

26. Politico needs fact checking a lot!!

[highplainsdem]

30. No kidding.

[Cha]

41. It did.. TY! That's not the only one..

There was a story questioning "Biden's Diverse Staff" That got shot down for being false.

[PatrickforO]

31. He could. But we won't know who will be the nominee until

at least Super Tuesday, will we?

[Skittles]

32. it's a battle between.........

zzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzz

[Cha]

57. Whatever.. Whoever can BEAT #45IMPEACHED is Fucking AWESOME.

[highplainsdem]

59. And Biden can beat him.

[Cha]

62. Exactly! So Biden is

fucking Awesome! Our Democracy is nothing to snore at.

[Wawannabe]

63. Awesome OP title!

Indicative of the DU primaries discussions of late. 🙄

[NYMinute]

65. David Sirota's buddies at work churning out BS articles about BS nt

[PhoenixDem]

66. More misinformation from the BS camp nt

[NurseJackie]

70. That's all they've got...

... I'm not impressed.