Biden's dominance with AA voters, and Sanders with Millennials, makes little difference in the GE.

[crazytown]

The December 10 Quinnipiac University Poll, is roughly in line with Primary poll averages
Biden 29%, Sanders 17%, Warren 15%, Buttigieg 9%.
https://poll.qu.edu/national/release-detail?ReleaseID=3651

The Crosstabs illustrate
Biden's strength with AA Voters 51% to Sanders 13%
Sanders' strength with Millennials 52% to Biden's 11%
Biden has 47% support with 65+ years, Sanders 2%.

However, when it comes to the GE, there's little difference.
Biden leads Trump 51-42%, Sanders leads Trump 51-43%.
Sanders (relative) weakness with AA and older voters is matched by his strength with Millennials
18-34 yrs: Sanders 63% / Trump 31%; Biden 57% / Trump 31%

My take - the Nominee is less important than the determination of the electorate to vote trump out.

Primary Contest


Biden v Trump


Sanders v Trump

[Indykatie]

1. Premise Here is Wrong IMO.

A likely voter model will look much different in the General election for Biden and Bernie. Bernie's strength lies with folks who have the lowest voter turn out rate. Biden's strength over Bernie with the 65+ and AA voters can't be overcome by Bernie's strength with young voters.

[crazytown]

2. And the error in the polling methodology is?

[AdamGG]

23. turnout

I don't think the polls accurately predict the levels at which different demographics will actually show up and vote; it measures their preference. Did any polls model how much higher AA turnout was for Obama than it was in 2004 and 2000? Maybe they did, but my understanding was that they didn't. That's why Romney's people thought the election was closer than it was.

[Hortensis]

36. We know it's rubbish. AA alone were 12% of all voters in 2012,

and the vast majority are Democrats and voted Democrat. For obvious reasons.

[David__77]

3. The variation across demographic groups is striking.

...

[crazytown]

4. Biden supporters consistently underestimate how (relatively) unpopular their candidate is

with younger voters. At the time of this poll, 6% less 18-34yrs would vote Dem with Biden as nominee.

[David__77]

7. I think that there's a lot of group compartmentalization going on.

While what you point to may be true, it may also be true that another candidate would fare worse among older voters, for instance. The old formula of balancing a ticket to appear to different constituencies may be important in this election.

[crazytown]

9. Yes. I get hung up on numbers.

What this result illustrates to me is the strength of the Democratic position. Two very different candidates, both well placed int the GE.

[David__77]

11. I hope that those strengths can be combined and expanded upon somehow.

...

[Act_of_Reparation]

12. Shocking, isn't it?

It's almost like young people prefer candidates who can identify with them, and vice versa. Maybe if we demean and deride them a little more, they'll change their tune.

[Demsrule86]

19. Sanders would be president today if younger voters were reliable and voted.

They don't. We need to have a candidate who can win in swing states...Biden can do this...Plus Sanders is not popular with other Demographics and independents...he will be branded a socialist( not saying he is one...I understand what a Democratic socialist is) and we will lose. The UK election was a warning to us...don't run to the left.

[ismnotwasm]

5. Whoa

Tell Black voters that. Biden dominates male AND female black voters. They know their worth.

To dismiss this is very short sighted IMO

[crazytown]

6. To dismiss the 6% of 18-34 yrs Biden sheds

at the time of this poll is a blind spot as well, but the differences are marginal.

[dansolo]

14. If that 6% chooses to not vote

Then screw them. If they will only vote for someone who promises to give them free stuff, then they are selfish assholes. And if they actually end up voting for Trump, then they were never really going to vote for Sanders or Warren anyway.

[crazytown]

15. "they are selfish assholes"

That's the way to GOTV Do you reserve the same venom for older voters who would not pull the lever for Sanders, for is that entirely justified?

[Demsrule86]

20. If those voters don't vote for the nominee no matter who it is...than fuck them. We will have to

wait until they are willing to act like adults. Trump gets another judge they are fucked just as we are...and I don't think this group votes with us no matter what.

[beastie boy]

8. Your take is spot on the sentiment of most Dems. The numbers you cited only strengthen the sentiment

And the contest between Biden and Sanders (and Warren) will be over after the Primaries. In Generals, the contest will be between the winner and Trump, and the Democratic vote will no longer be divided between Biden and Sanders. At least, that's the plan.

[crazytown]

10. Agreed.

[Loki Liesmith]

13. Can't really disagree

Obviously I think Biden is the best candidate but I think most anyone can win this. Maybe not Gabbard.

[crazytown]

17. ?

Whites - Biden 44%, Trump 50%

[lunasun]

18. And Black vs White voters as a whole 👀👀

so different for trump

[Demsrule86]

21. Which is terrible for the GOP...they have to get more of the white vote than that...and I don't

think they will suburban women some GOP and some independent...some Democrats of course gave us the house...they don't like Trump but if we have a candidate that is too far left, they won't turn out and we could lose the house too...and kiss the Senate goodbye.

[ecstatic]

22. That's quite high. If I recall correctly, democrats just need around

39% of the white vote to win, since literally every other demographic leans Democratic.

[dsc]

25. If that held up we would be golden

Clinton lost whites 37 to 57 in 2012 Obama lost them 39 to 59. If Biden only lost whits by 6 that would be amazing. Heck even 12 would be a vast improvement.

[crazytown]

27. 44% of whites voted Dem in the midterms

[dsc]

30. If Biden kept his 44

with the GOP getting 56 he would only do two points worse than our best US House election in terms of popular vote in decades.

[dsc]

32. His 44% would beat or tie every Democrat since Carter

and would tie Clinton's 94 reelection. A 12 point margin would be better than all but Clinton (who had Perot drawing a non trivial number of white voters) it would tie Obama in 2008 (our best two person election since 1964). In short, it would be huge. https://www.americanprogress.org/issues/race/news/2016/02/05/130647/what-about-white-voters/

[crazytown]

34. In 1996 Perrot won 9% of whites.

Without him, you could project Bill to something like 48%. For all the criticism of the Clinton administration's move towards the center, it is forgotten just what he faced after 1994.

[dsc]

35. He hurt his percent in all likelihood but almost certainly helped his margin

His margin in 96 was -5, which was the best since Carter (-4) I think he would have lost the white vote by at least 7 or 8.

[crazytown]

37. Um ...

I'm going by the Roper Center numbers

(Whites) Dole 46%, Clinton 44%, Perot 9%

https://ropercenter.cornell.edu/how-groups-voted-1996

[dsc]

38. yeah so his margin was only -2

without Perot I think it would have been more like -5 or -6.

[Lexblues]

24. God help us if we have to depend on young people voting

in order to beat Trump. Young people are so fickled and if we have to depend on young people or Trump wins, then we're screwed.

[crazytown]

29. I didn't hear too many complaints in 2012

When Obama won 18-29 yrs 60 / 37. Romney won 65+ yrs 56 / 44. If young voters do not turn out in force for our nominee we will certainly lose.

[Lexblues]

39. Obama got the AA vote out in force too

Something that Warren nor Bernie can do. We can't win without significant black vote, especially in the rust belt states and south.

[jberryhill]

26. "Biden's dominance with AA voters" is just such bizarre wording

While I certainly understand the meaning, the imagery which those words evoke is just a little odd.

[crazytown]

28. Yikes - I agree

I originally used the word strength. Sorry everyone.

[jberryhill]

31. It's the George Wallace wing of the party who are now Trump supporters

[crazytown]

33. And in 1994, 26 years after his presidential run,

the Dixiecrats finally crossed the Rubicon