Suddenly, Biden leads in Iowa!

[beastie boy]

By just 0.5% with an MOA greater than 3%, but some would consider it a surge...

https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/president-primary-d/iowa/

[getagrip_already]

1. It's a blitzkrieg!

Maybe bernie should attack him some more. It seems to be helping him.

[LongtimeAZDem]

2. There will likely be an even division of delegates coming out of Iowa, and the current positions

will probably not change. That would be bad for everyone but Biden

"Unless you're the lead dog, the view never changes."

[beastie boy]

5. I just picturted the view of someone who is not a lead dog.

!!!

[redqueen]

3. The latest poll shown seems to be from Dec 19

What am I missing?

[beastie boy]

6. The chart at the link shows standings as of January 2

[redqueen]

7. But with no new Iowa polls - how had anything changed?

[LongtimeAZDem]

15. It's explained at the top; it's a moving average, less recent numbers have less weight

"Updating average for each Democratic candidate in 2020 primary polls, accounting for each poll’s quality, sample size and recency"

[Demsrule86]

8. No January 2nd...

[redqueen]

10. That's the date of the average.

But I see no new polls listed there so - wondering how any update as of anytime since then is possible.

[LongtimeAZDem]

12. "accounting for each poll's quality, sample size and recency"

Silver's algorithms take into account how long ago numbers were, and adjusts for stale data.

[Demsrule86]

16. You beat me to it...I was going to say that too...the same is true in New Hampshire by the way

where it looks like a tie...



Our average includes all candidates that FiveThirtyEight considers “major.” Candidates with insufficient polling data are not displayed in the averages. State polling averages are adjusted based on national trends, which means candidates’ averages can shift even in the absence of fresh state polls. Read more about the methodology.

[LongtimeAZDem]

18. They do explain their methodology:

Differentiator 1: We adjust state polls based on trends in national polls

A hallmark of our general election forecasts, dating all the way back to our first versions in 2008, is what we call a “trend line adjustment.” Basically, in states that haven’t been polled recently, we make inferences about what’s going on there using national polls or polls from other states that have been surveyed recently. If President Trump gained 3 percentage points in national polls, for instance, but North Carolina hadn’t been polled recently, you could probably infer that he’d also gained 3 points, or thereabouts, in North Carolina.

We apply this adjustment for a good reason: Trend-line-adjusted averages have been quite a bit more accurate, historically. That is, once someone does get around to polling North Carolina, it usually turns out that Trump did gain about 3 points. Trend-line-adjusted averages have also been insightful so far this cycle — they anticipated, for instance, that Sen. Elizabeth Warren’s numbers would decline in state polls in November and early December once she began to slump in national polls.

So we’re now applying a slightly simplified version1 of the trend line adjustment to the primaries. (Note that all polling averages you see on our state polling pages reflect this trend line adjustment.) Say that Sen. Cory Booker has surged by 5 points in national polls, for instance, but we haven’t seen a recent poll in Nevada. Our average would assume that he’d also improved his standing by 5 points in Nevada, other things held equal.

There are a few complications: For instance, the adjustment is nonlinear, which can have meaningful effects if a candidate is polling in the low single digits. But in short, the trend line adjustment can have fairly large effects if a state hasn’t been polled much recently. It doesn’t affect our numbers much, conversely, if there are a lot of recent, high-quality polls from that state.

https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/what-makes-our-new-2020-democratic-primary-polling-averages-different/

[Demsrule86]

20. Very interesting...we should see some polls in Iowa soon too. But I think 538 is brilliant and trust

the methods.

[redstatebluegirl]

4. As more candidates drop out and as things become more frightening around the world

I think people will look for something known and solid. We don't want to experience another 4 years of whiplash as we run from one pole to the other. The majority of America are in the middle. I know that is not popular here, but it is true.

I like Joe, I think he will make a great President to right some of the wrongs of this nutcase. However I do understand what has been done to our country and our foreign relations will take years to repair.

I will work my tail off to elect a Democrat, but Joe is my first choice by far!

[Demsrule86]

9. mine too.

[Sloumeau]

11. I think redqueen is correct. I believe that this is how I saw things on 538...

more than a week ago. The small lead is not exactly new or sudden.

[Demsrule86]

13. It has moved...My guess is national polls are also figured in...biden is ahead 10 points or more in

national polls.

[LongtimeAZDem]

14. Older poll numbers are aged out

"Updating average for each Democratic candidate in 2020 primary polls, accounting for each poll’s quality, sample size and recency"

[TidalWave46]

17. More than a surge according to some.

This is more like a blue TidalWave!

[Peacetrain]

19. Alrighty now!!!

Just the good news I needed

[empedocles]

21. Certainly a 'surge' by Biden supporters in this thread.

[LongtimeAZDem]

22. :D

[Demsrule86]

23. Yep...this is good news for Biden.

[brooklynite]

24. It's being reported that there's a Seltzer/DMR poll in the field...

[Demsrule86]

25. Where is it being reported...not doubting you but I don't see it.

When will it be out...do you know?

[StevieM]

27. I am hoping that there will be a slew of new polls out on Monday.

It seems like we are about due. Right now we have no idea where the race stands in the early primary and caucus states because it has been so long.

[Demsrule86]

28. I posted some updates figures...538 has a way to update using national trends and Algorithms...been

doing this for years...pretty accurate. And New Hampshire is posted here on this OP also.

https://www.democraticunderground.com/1287405831

[StevieM]

29. It just doesn't feel the same as new polls.

I want the latest batch, but there is no latest batch.

Like I said, I have a feeling that we will get some new ones at the start of next week.

[Demsrule86]

30. I agree...waiting for new polls.

[RandySF]

26. The holidays are over and people are getting serious.