"The polls are what the polls are": A reminder from 2008

[crazytown]

Then came some actual votes - in Iowa.

[brooklynite]

1. The shift occurred on January 5...let us know if anything happens on Sunday.

[crazytown]

2. ?

IA Caucuses Thursday January 3, 2008. That's what happened.

[Polybius]

4. I miss when they were that early

It's BS that we have to wait till February.

[TidalWave46]

3. There is not an orator even close to Obama in the bunch.

I’m not sure I see how any meaningful comparison can be drawn.

“The polls are what the polls are.”

And this is an abuse in the usage of polling.

[Polybius]

5. Obama was unbeatable no matter who he was running against

That's why I wanted him to wait in 2008. We could have had 8 years of Hillary, and we'd be in Obama's second term right now. He was young enough that he could have waited.

[crazytown]

6. National Polls do not predict IA

2004, 2008, 2016. Before IA, an exceptional orator was flatlining.

And an IA upset can change the game. At this stage, I can see Biden finishing 4th in IA - the same sort of fall from grace that Hillary suffered in 2008 - for the same reasons - he is up against exceptional ground games. And if the primary contest will be look different the morning after.

[TidalWave46]

8. I never thought they did predict Iowa.

I do find them of value. Iowa is an interesting beast and in certain situations it can make or break someone. It can also be a state of no significance. All of those arguments can be made and I still say your argument in the op is not on solid ground. I do say this respectfully and understand you disagree.

[crazytown]

9. IA is a game of expectations.

If Biden wins big, the game changes. A good second, on with the show, let see what happens.

It's only personal, but I thought NH was the game changer in 2008 - not the result - the Yes We Can 'concession' speech. Thats when Obama became OBAMA. Yes we can win this, yes we change this country, yes we can heal the world. A once in a lifetime moment that balances that other once in a lifetime - the day RFK was shot and my parents could not stop crying in front of their children.

[Demsrule86]

10. As I have said before,I do not think Biden needs to win Iowa...times change. I also think all

of the top four will get delegates out of Iowa and New Hampshire...so Nevada, Carolina and super Tuesday will tell the tale...now both Warren and Buttigieg need to do fairly well in Iowa. And both Sanders and Warren need to do fairly well in New Hampshire as they live near there...I think Iowa will not determine the winner of the primary going forward nor will New Hampshire...the party has changed. And it is unfair to our AA candidates for important primaries to be held first in small white states...Now should Biden have a surprise win in Iowa and/or New Hampshire,I think he is unstoppable. He would be exceeding expectations...and should one of the top three excluding Biden have a surprise win in Carolina...they would be on their way to the nomination also exceeding expectations. So we shall see once the voting start...must say I am excited, I love election years.

[ritapria]

7. John Kerry was in the single digits in the national polling

Then he won Iowa and NH - and won the nomination in a walk . Kerry wasn't a great orator ...The nationl polls mean nothing - until the results of Iowa and NH come in ...

[Demsrule86]

11. I don't think it will be like that again...I won't change my mind about Biden if someone else wins..

Iowa and New Hampshire used to mean something because we all agree it did...I don't know that is the case anymore.

[NYMinute]

12. Bernie is no Kerry and definitely not Obama

Kerry is a Democrat and a senator with legislative accomplishments. His campaign was not built on anger and he never attacked Democrats.

Difference of night and day there.

[redqueen]

13. K&R

[UniteFightBack]

14. If Clinton had jut won back then we'd be electing Obama to a second term right now. nt