Poll: Biden holds double-digit lead over 2020 Democratic rivals

[Gothmog]

Link to tweet

Former Vice President Joe Biden leads the field of Democratic presidential hopefuls by double digits a month ahead of the Iowa caucuses, according to a Harvard CAPS/Harris poll released exclusively to The Hill.

The poll shows Biden registering 30 percent support among Democrats nationally. In a relatively distant second place is Sen. Bernie Sanders (I-Vt.), who notched 17 percent in the survey.

Sen. Elizabeth Warren (D-Mass.) is lingering in the No. 3 spot with 12 percent support. No other candidate registered double-digit support. Former South Bend, Ind., Mayor Pete Buttigieg came in fourth place at 7 percent, while former tech executive Andrew Yang notched 3 percent support.

“Biden continues to be the front-runner but the surprise is really the growth of Sanders while Warren has shrunk,” said Mark Penn, the co-director of the Harvard CAPS/Harris poll. “Just a few months ago this was a Warren race — today it’s more likely to come down to Biden vs. Sanders.”

[Skya Rhen]

1. I remember when Warren was the front runner.

[Hortensis]

34. She never was,tho. Media deceptions don't erase reality,

though they do try to re-form it.

[ritapria]

2. This is the poll put out by Mark Penn

Penn is the fellow now advising Donald Trump on Impeachment …. He wants the Party to move to the right … The race is probably closer to Biden 28%... Bernie 20% ... Warren 15 %... Buttigieg 8%.. Bloomberg 6% ... Yang 4%...Klobuchar 3% ..

[crazytown]

4. We all remember how Penn advised HRC to triumph in 2008.

He's been shunned by Hillaryland ever since. A really fine pollster

[DownriverDem]

9. What we need

is someone who can win enough states to beat trump. Why don't folks talk about that?

[John Fante]

28. Biden's platform, should he win the nomination, would be

the most progressive in history. Suggesting that he'd move the party to the right is purity voter propaganda.

[crazytown]

3. "said Mark Penn, the co-director of the Harvard CAPS/Harris poll"

while taking time off from advising trump on impeachment.

I'll bet it was a real surprise. Harris reported Warren at 10 when her RCP average was 21.

[wryter2000]

5. It's 2016 all over again

Only, this time will Bernie supporters do the right thing and vote for the Dem nominee if it’s not Bernie?

[wiley]

8. Hope so. They can't use the not my feminist excuse anymore

Bernie supporters will do what they do. Focus on a positive message! And yeah, Bernie is running the same exact campaign as in 2016. Only many unions are holding back.

[MH1]

17. Many of them won't. We will have to win without them.

Many of Bernie's supporters hate Democrats even more than they hate Republicans. I can't explain it, it is just what I have observed. (some of these supporters I know IRL so I am not talking about only internet trolls.)

[Steven Maurer]

6. He's ahead but probably not by that much...

The Harris poll is only rated a C+ by fivethirtyeight.

The polling averages have Biden at 27.8 vs Sanders' 17.8, which is exactly 10.0 on the nose.

https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/president-primary-d/national/

[DownriverDem]

10. Please focus

on who can win enough states to beat trump. We are a Center/Left country. We need a Center/Left candidate. Please focus.

[Demsrule86]

20. Once he is ahead of both Sander's and Warren's combined totals...no more team BS...

primaries are not team sports. I think Biden may be ahead now...and as the voting starts ...no matter what he takes out of Iowa...he will take some delegates and then on to areas where he is likely to trounce the other candidates...GO Biden.

[PatrickforO]

7. This Iran deal might do it for Biden.

Again, we'll see.

[DownriverDem]

11. ?

Do what for Biden? Please explain.

[PatrickforO]

14. Let's talk history.

Isn't it funny that every time a Republican president is bogged down in domestic issues, in trouble in the polls, they seem to find a way for us to go to war.

The main reason Trump did this was to relieve pressure on his presidency from the impeachment.

Historically, the American people, not us wonks, but the American people writ large, want someone they can trust at the helm in time of war.

Yet, Trump's popularity is low, and he faces some serious backlash for consulting with his friends at Mar-a-lago but failing to consult with Congress - at least ranking congressional Dems. He has his base but has alienated pretty much everyone else.

Of the Democrats, Biden is the one most trusted in foreign policy. He is the one greater swaths of the electorate will want at the helm in a dangerous time because he has proven himself through decades of service in Congress, and being VP.

There..................................and here you thought I was taking a potshot at him.

[NYMinute]

12. K&R Go Joe!! nt

[MineralMan]

13. He doesn't have to beat any combination of other candidates.

Presidential primaries are not a team sport. There is no "Pairs" competition. There is just one winner and a list of runners-up.

[totodeinhere]

16. You must not have much of a sense of history.

It's not always about who wins a primary. Look at 1968 when Gene McCarthy placed in second place in the New Hampshire primary. LBJ won the primary, but his margin of victory was not perceived to be large enough and so the media of the time portrayed it as a moral victory for McCarthy. Not long after that LBJ dropped out.

[MineralMan]

18. History? Well, I lived that 1968 history.

There are no parallels to it in the 2019 primary race at all. 1968 was a monstrous debacle. The rules were changed after it for our Democratic Nominating Convention.

My sense of history is keen. At least for the history of the times I've lived in. I also remember, painfully, who won in 1968.

[totodeinhere]

29. The rules may have changed, but you better believe that if one of our

"second tier" candidates comes much closer to the front runner than they were expected to do in one of our early primaries the media will try to spin that as a "victory" for that candidate and a setback for the front runner. It's still all about perceptions.

[MineralMan]

30. No, it is not about "perceptions." It is about votes.

The media can do whatever it wishes, since we have a free press here, more or less. However, victory goes to the person with the most votes. The media does not control the ballot box, nor the voters.

Right now, we only have polls to look at, and they're all over the place, really, except that Biden remains the front-runner by about 10 points on average. He has maintained that lead since the very beginning.

Once we begin holding actual primary elections (and a caucus or two), we'll start seeing what actual primary voters think. I can't wait.

Once we get past Super Tuesday, with all of the delegates the states in that group send to the convention, we can begin talking about distribution of delegates. That's the only thing that matters, really. Until then, it's all just hopes and dreams. On March 4, the field of candidates will be much reduced in numbers. Then, we'll begin to see how it all sorts out.

[Demsrule86]

21. And Nixon was elected...we thankfully have safeguards against such nonsense...

[MineralMan]

31. Exactly.

Using 1968 as an example neglects to understand that we changed the rules for our nominee selection process to help prevent that from happening again. 1968 was an aberration. It's history, but it's history that changed how we do things in the Democratic Party.

[Demsrule86]

32. And that is a good thing...we do not want a brokered convention...although some here seem

willing to risk losing the general by having a brokered convention if it helps their candidate...not me. The candidate with the most delegates wins period.

[totodeinhere]

15. I wish that people would stop promoting meaningless national polls.

It's all about the early primary and caucus states. And the same thing will apply to the general election when it will be all about a few swing states, not the national popular vote..

[MineralMan]

19. Actually, it's not all about those early primary events.

Not any longer. The Super Tuesday shift for 2019 has erased that. Now, so many delegates are tied to the March 3 primaries that the early primaries are about to become a novelty. This year, and probably from now on.

I encourage you to follow the delegate count, beginning on February 4 or 5, when the first estimates of delegate allocations from Iowa are made. Then, follow those counts through the other three primaries.

Finally, on March 4, when initial delegate counts from the Super Tuesday primaries become available, you will see what I am saying in reality.

Where should you check those delegate counts? Where political journalists go to find them:

https://www.thegreenpapers.com/P20/D

Bookmark that page. It will have the earliest and most accurate delegate counts throughout the primary season.

[Demsrule86]

22. Thanks MM... Bookmarked.

[MineralMan]

23. The two guys who run that website

are hard workers during primary season. It's the go-to place to get the most accurate delegate count estimates. Most political journalists rely on those counts for their reporting. So, it's a good place to get that information as soon as it is available.

The counts are adjusted when new information is available, too, so they will change in minor ways right up to the convention.

[Demsrule86]

24. Thanks...don't know how I missed this site in previous elections.

[MineralMan]

25. Clicking the individual state abbreviations will

get you information on how delegates are allocated in that state, along with links to state party rules, state conventions, etc. There are links all over the place on the pages that explain just about every term used, plus historical links, and other links to info on primary elections, etc.

From what I understand, the site is a labor of love and doesn't involve any money changing hands.

I keep a tab open with that site throughout the primary season, just to make sure what I post about any state's primary is accurate.

I posted the link many times in the run-up to the 2016 election, as well. I happened on it by accident, really.

[Demsrule86]

26. Excellent...as I find all the different rules and delegate counts confusing. Thanks.

[MineralMan]

27. Enjoy!

[Demsrule86]

33. I will and I appreciate it...thanks.