Should coattails or help with down ballot candidates be an important consideration

[Gothmog]

We have a 16 seat majority in the House that we could lose. We need four seats in the US senate to get control. In Texas we have gone from a 101 GOP seat super- majority in the Texas state house with only 49 Democrats to only needing 9 state house seats to flip this body.

I think that coat tails or the ability to help down ballot candidates win is an important consideration and I am glad that the Biden campaign is focusing on this concept

Link to tweet

[Demsrule86]

1. Yes without the senate...we get no judges period...without the house we can't fix anything...we need

a moderate at the top of the ticket.

[Gothmog]

2. Joe Biden endorses Democrat in battleground Texas House special election

This is one of the seats that we need to flip to take control of the Texas house

Link to tweet

Democratic presidential candidate Joe Biden is backing Eliz Markowitz in the special election runoff for state House District 28, her highest-profile endorsement yet in the battleground race.

Markowitz faces Republican businessman Gary Gates in the Jan. 28 race to replace former Rep. John Zerwas, R-Richmond. Democrats are working to flip the suburban Houston seat as they look to capture the House majority in November.

Biden cited Markowitz's extensive education background in endorsing her. Markowitz, who ran unsuccessfully last year for State Board of Education, is a longtime instructor, trainer and author with The Princeton Review.

"I’m from a family of teachers and I know the real deal: Not only is Eliz an educator and activist – she’s the kind of fighter who will bring heart and smarts to the statehouse and to communities across Texas and at home in Fort Bend County," Biden said in a statement. "She has worked to boost access to health care and quality public education, and to train other teachers across the country. Let's help her continue that fight for our families and futures on January 28th."

[Peacetrain]

3. If we want to make substantial changes.. most definitely the candidate needs coattails..

[TidalWave46]

4. It's extremely important for me.

And we cannot give up if we put someone forward who we know will have no coattails. Possibly even reverse coattails.

https://www.democraticunderground.com/?com=view_post&forum=1287&pid=407969

[mopinko]

7. imho, this is what happened in '18. reverse coattails is a good way to put it.

in dupage county, the many candidate for county seats knocked on a metric fuckton of doors. same in lake county, just north.
the cd seats there all flipped, too.

i can tell you that the congressional candidates didnt do a good job of coordinating. but like all tsunamis, it's the pressure at the bottom where the force comes from.

it's my understanding the ew is trying to reach down ticket.
dont know about anyone else.

[TidalWave46]

8. EW is reaching out down ticket.

Team building is very important to her and has been a part of how she handles herself in the Senate.

I know a lot of people have their doubts when it comes to Warren driving out the vote or having coattails. I feel she can prove both to happen. I can make a good argument that she can beat Trump. My argument for coattails is a little less robust. I think she will have them after watching how she has conducted herself throughout this campaign. She is respected by Democrats of all stripes.

[mopinko]

11. just one of many ways she sees the big picture, imho.

[blm]

14. Art Cullen endorsed her saying she speaks to rural voters on

the issues important to their lives.

https://www.desmoinesregister.com/story/news/elections/presidential/caucus/2019/12/11/elizabeth-warren-endorsement-art-cullen-storm-lake-times-iowa-caucuses/4397084002/

[TidalWave46]

16. And she does it really really well.

Unfortunately, Such things take a conversation. Her steady as it goes approach was amazing. I think she is a good place if she can get momentum back.

[Gothmog]

44. sanders is bad for down ballot candidates

Link to tweet

[Gothmog]

18. Obama campaign guru: Trump would love to run against Bernie

Link to tweet

Barack Obama’s 2012 campaign manager is warning that Democrats would struggle in a general election against Donald Trump if Bernie Sanders is the nominee.

In an interview with POLITICO, Jim Messina predicted that Trump would exploit Sanders’ stamp of socialism in battleground states needed to defeat Trump, keep control of the House and have a shot at winning the Senate.

“If I were a campaign manager for Donald Trump and I look at the field, I would very much want to run against Bernie Sanders,” Messina said. “I think the contrast is the best. He can say, ‘I’m a business guy, the economy’s good and this guy’s a socialist.’ I think that contrast for Trump is likely one that he’d be excited about in a way that he wouldn’t be as excited about Biden or potentially Mayor Pete or some of the more Midwestern moderate candidates.”....

“From a general election perspective, socialism is not going to be what Democrats are going to want to defend,” Messina added.“If you’re the Democratic nominee for the Montana Senate race, you don’t want to spend the election talking about socialism.”

Messina is the latest Democrat to raise concerns about Sanders at the top of the ticket. Endangered House Democrats are coalescing around Biden because of concerns that Sanders or Elizabeth Warren could threaten their reelection hopes, POLITICO reported Saturday.

[TidalWave46]

20. It's a horrible prospect.

Drive out the vote for local Democrats. It’s going to harm them severely. It’s what would have to be done.

[Gothmog]

39. None of the Democrats who flipped seats ran on sanders' platform

Link to tweet

?s=20

[judeling]

5. Yes indeed it should

The question is does Biden actually provide that. I am less then convinced that he does.
While I do not think he hurts I'm not sure he particularly helps.

[TwilightZone]

6. Of course.

An agenda is worthless if it can't be implemented. Down-ticket races are going to be extremely important this cycle. Continued gains in state legislatures is also a priority.

[ancianita]

9. Yes. But while split-ticket voting's trended down, gerrymandering makes up for that, and

rigging might even beat the Democrats' GOTV numbers of Obama in 2016. That's my biggest fear. The next biggest fear is right wing and horse race media trying to show Trump being a formidable foe in spite of disapproval numbers.

But assuming the election and media are honest, if 2018 party wins show a blue wave momentum for 2020, then coattails will add momentum to that wave even into 2024. Which can finally turn two branches of government around.

Long term split ticket trends from WaPo



8 battleground states in last election

[MineralMan]

10. That is always an important thing in presidential elections.

Not only do we need to maintain our majority in the House, we also need to gain a majority in the Senate, which will be a tough job in 2020. To do it, we need a presidential nominee who can get out the Democratic vote, not only to defeat Trump, but to bring voters to the polls who will also vote for Democrats for Senate and all other offices.

Joe Biden can do that.

[Gothmog]

41. House Minority Leader Kevin McCarthy will be the next speaker come 2021

Link to tweet

THE TUMULTUOUS POLITICAL CLIMATE has given fresh hope to REPUBLICANS, who were privately skeptical of TRUMP’S prediction that House Minority Leader KEVIN MCCARTHY will be the next speaker come 2021. Internal polling commissioned by the NATIONAL REPUBLICAN CONGRESSIONAL COMMITTEE showed that voters in districts targeted by both parties are skeptical of SANDERS -- his approval rating is 42%, and disapproval stands at 53% -- which they believe will help boost their candidates for the House. In these districts, voters prefer TRUMP, 48% to 43%. If SANDERS is atop the ticket, Republicans believe, they can credibly label every Democrat a socialist without fear of overreach.

[peggysue2]

12. If we want to actually make change

Winning the White House is only Step One, an important one for sure but limited. We need to retain the House and if the stars are aligned and the nominee can appeal to the widest electorate, take back the Senate.

Then and only then can we truly turn this around, stamp out the smoldering ruin of Trumpism and reclaim the future.

We can do this. Joe Biden can get us there.

[The Valley Below]

13. Hell yes!

Without the Senate our options will be limited.

Biden is the candidate with the longest coat-tails in my estimation and he is best suited to dealing with the remnants of the GOP legislators as president.

Biden can help turn critical Senate races. Vitally important to do so.

[Hortensis]

15. Of course this.

[Gothmog]

17. Joe Biden campaigned for down ballot candidates in 2018

Joe Biden believes in campaigning for down ballot candidates

Link to tweet

[Gothmog]

19. Endangered Democrats sound the alarm on Bernie and Warren

Having sanders or Warren at the top of the ticket would kill down ballot candidate

Link to tweet

A slate of endangered House Democrats is coalescing behind Joe Biden for president as the Iowa caucuses approach — a surge of support triggered by fears that Bernie Sanders or Elizabeth Warren at the top of the ticket would cost them their seats.

More than a dozen swing-seat freshmen have taken part in at least one private call session with Biden, Amy Klobuchar or Pete Buttigieg in recent weeks. A handful have already gravitated toward the former vice president, and more are expected to follow before Democrats start voting on Feb. 3, according to interviews with 15 lawmakers, aides and campaign strategists.

Others are still hearing out Klobuchar — who held her own call with a dozen members on Monday night — and Buttigieg. Both candidates are pitching themselves as middle-of-the-road Democrats who can stem the leftward surge of the party.

“I’m looking at all the moderates in the race,” said Rep. Anthony Brindisi (D-N.Y.), who holds a GOP-leaning district in upstate New York. “If we’re going to campaign on issues like Medicare for All and free college for everybody, we’re not going to have a winning message in 2020.”

House Democrats in battleground districts are anxious for a moderate to lead the ballot in 2020, warning that a self-described socialist like Sen. Bernie Sanders (I-Vt.) or liberal icon like Elizabeth Warren (D-Mass.) could hurt their own chances in the fall — and help reelect President Donald Trump. Most won over independents and moderate Republicans to flip long-held GOP districts in 2018.

[empedocles]

27. Absolutely. The Dem purists are heard way more - and are less essential.

[betsuni]

21. K&R

[Gothmog]

22. Biden is the best candidate to help down ballot candidates

Link to tweet

[Gothmog]

23. Colin Allred and other New Democrats in swing districts support Biden

Link to tweet

?s=20

[Gothmog]

24. I do not want to see Kevin 'McCarthy as speaker

If sanders is the nominee, trump will win 45+ states and down ballot candidates would lose

[Gothmog]

25. Joe Biden is the only candidate with a real shot at getting things done

Link to tweet

Rep. Conor Lamb, 35, won a special election in the suburbs of Pittsburgh 18 months after Trump carried the district by 20 points. His campaign made time for only one national surrogate: Biden.

“He reminds me of my son Beau,” Biden said at a rally at the Carpenter’s Training Center in Collier, Pennsylvania, a week before the March 2018 election, referring to his son who died of brain cancer in 2015.

Biden’s endorsement was not the only reason for Lamb’s victory, but the campaign did think the visit from the former vice president offered Lamb a chance to build credibility with union workers.

Lamb is now endorsing Biden to be the Democratic nominee, and he’s in good company. Biden has far more endorsements from elected officials than any other candidate. The FiveThirtyEight endorsement tracker, which keeps track of high-profile endorsements and weights them by influence, has Biden scoring 237 points — nearly triple the second-place candidate, Sen. Elizabeth Warren, who scores an 81.

Sen. Bernie Sanders trails Warren at 55. Sen. Amy Klobuchar is next with 50.
Other candidates have picked up pockets of support in important states — in Michigan, five state lawmakers are backing Warren and the Young Democrats have come out for Sanders. But Biden has way outpaced his competitors in numbers, and he’s earned endorsements from Democrats who’ve won tough races in places that will be tough again in 2020.

[stopdiggin]

26. It's a trick question, right?

--

[redstatebluegirl]

28. Yes, but beating Trump takes the lead on anything else right now.

We really need the Senate in the worst way. We can't get any judges without that body.

[beachbumbob]

29. ALWAYS THE considerations

no coattails from the likes of warren or sanders in states outside the coastal liberal bastions that Biden would win with ease as well.

[Gothmog]

30. Joe Biden is the best candidate to help Democrats win down ballot races

Link to tweet

[Gothmog]

31. We may lose one of the two Texas Congressiaol seats

IN Texas we flipped 12 state house seats and two congressional seats. I am worried about Lizzie Fletcher's seat and fear that if we nominate a weak candidate like sanders we will lose this seat

Link to tweet

[krissey]

32. I see only one that will hurt our down ballot candidates. I see all the others being part

of the rise for our down ballots. Cheering them on, working together in unity, integrity, and smarts.

[Cha]

33. It's ultra Important!

[Gothmog]

34. Elected Democrats who flipped seats support Joe Biden

Link to tweet

[Gothmog]

35. SC's Joe Cunningham slams Bernie Sanders' 'socialism'

Another elected member of Congress who does not want sanders at the top of the ticket
https://www.postandcourier.com/politics/sc-s-joe-cunningham-slams-bernie-sanders-socialism-ahead-of/article_e81bee3e-4dd6-11ea-9fbd-2fcdbb861195.html

U.S. Rep. Joe Cunningham, one of only two Democratic congressmen from South Carolina, forcefully rebuked U.S. Sen. Bernie Sanders on Wednesday, jolting the state’s “First in the South” presidential primary race just hours after the Vermont senator won in New Hampshire.

In a statement to The Post and Courier, the first-term congressman from Charleston said he does not plan on making an endorsement ahead of South Carolina’s Feb. 29 primary but will “defend our Lowcountry values of opportunity, pragmatism and common sense.”

“South Carolinians don’t want socialism,” Cunningham said. “We want to know how you are going to get things done and how you are going to pay for them. Bernie’s proposals to raise taxes on almost everyone is not something the Lowcountry wants and not something I’d ever support.”....

Other candidates have long warned that they believe Sanders would have a damaging effect on down-ballot races if he is the Democratic nominee at the top of the ticket in November.

Former Vice President Joe Biden, who remains the front-runner in South Carolina, has most explicitly made that case, arguing Sanders would hurt vulnerable Democrats in competitive districts like Cunningham as they try to win re-election.

In 2018, Cunningham flipped a seat that had been held by Republicans for four decades in large part by casting himself as a moderate Democrat who would look out for the district over partisan politics.

[Gothmog]

36. I agree with Connor Lamb

Link to tweet

[Gothmog]

37. Sanders would kill down ballot candidate

Link to tweet

[Gothmog]

38. Texas Democrats are worried about sanders killing down ballot candidates

Link to tweet

[Gothmog]

40. Down-ballot Republicans watch with glee as Sanders gains steam

Link to tweet

Bernie Sanders hasn’t won the Democratic primary — but down-ballot Republicans are having a field day acting like he has.
Republicans up and down the ballot are already casting their Democratic rivals as socialist puppets who would remake the economy in

Sanders’ collectivist vision. The play is straightforward: President Donald Trump has repelled college-educated suburban voters since he took office; Republicans want to win them back by arguing the alternative is worse.

Arizona Sen. Martha McSally launched a TV ad titled “Bernie Bro” likening her Democratic opponent, retired astronaut Mark Kelly, to the Vermont senator. North Carolina Sen. Thom Tillis held a press conference last week linking his Democratic rivals to the Sanders-backed Green New Deal. In Michigan, a conservative group has aired a series of commercials that go after Democratic Sen. Gary Peters by invoking Sanders and his support for Medicare for All.

And in the wake of Sanders’ New Hampshire primary win, the Republican State Leadership Committee, which focuses on state legislative races, has been running digital ads asking whether down-ballot Democrats in more than a half-dozen states are “feeling burned yet” — a take on the Sanders mantra, “Feel the Bern.”

The early activity bolsters claims by Sanders' Democratic rivals that he would be a nightmare for Democrats on the ballot next year. The senator's supporters say Republicans will find a way to demonize whomever the nominee is, and Sanders, at least, brings a big upside with the enthusiasm among young voters he inspires.

But Republicans do seem especially eager to face off against Sanders.

[Gothmog]

42. Here is an ad being runned by the grandson of GHW Bush

TX CD 22 is an open seat with Pete Olson retiring. The DCCC has targeted this seat for flipping. There are 15 candidates in GOP primary including the grandson of GHW Bush. Another candidate, Kathleen Wall, is running in the GOP primary and she spent $6 million in 2018 running in GOP primary for TX CD 2 and did not make GOP primary runoff. I have had Wall block walkers come to my house twice (I live in a very GOP neighborhood) and I have found Wall doorhanger on my door twice now.

Pierce Bush is running against socialism

Link to tweet

Sri Preston Kulkarni is the leading Democrat for this seat (Sri has a GOP type and another person running against him in the Texas Democratic Primary) I texted this ad to Sri and he knew about it already. Sri Preston Kulkarni is a great guy and we need to flip this seat

If sanders is the nominee, we can forget about this seat and we will have Kevin McCarthy as speaker

[ripcord]

43. It is strange how voting your concscience doesn't enter into the thinking of moderates

They will tell you who you should vote for, no thought on your part required.

[Gothmog]

45. House Minority Leader Kevin McCarthy will be the next speaker come 2021

Kevin McCarthy also wants sanders to be the nominee

Link to tweet

THE TUMULTUOUS POLITICAL CLIMATE has given fresh hope to REPUBLICANS, who were privately skeptical of TRUMP’S prediction that House Minority Leader KEVIN MCCARTHY will be the next speaker come 2021. Internal polling commissioned by the NATIONAL REPUBLICAN CONGRESSIONAL COMMITTEE showed that voters in districts targeted by both parties are skeptical of SANDERS -- his approval rating is 42%, and disapproval stands at 53% -- which they believe will help boost their candidates for the House. In these districts, voters prefer TRUMP, 48% to 43%. If SANDERS is atop the ticket, Republicans believe, they can credibly label every Democrat a socialist without fear of overreach.

[Gothmog]

46. Down ballot candidates want Joe to be in the top of the ticket

Link to tweet