538: "Iowa matters a lot". If Biden prevails, he has a 80% chance of winning outright.

[crazytown]

Biden, for instance, would be a heavy favorite if he wins Iowa, with an 80 percent chance of a delegate majority and an 84 percent chance of a plurality. His majority chances would fall to 20 percent following an Iowa loss, however.

Sanders would be a slight favorite to win a majority after an Iowa win, with a 61 percent chance, but his majority chances would fall to 8 percent with a loss there. Warren would also be a slight favorite to win a delegate majority after an Iowa win, but Buttigieg would not be (although his position would be substantially strengthened).

These scenarios account for Iowa wins of all shapes and sizes — big, emphatic wins and narrow, perhaps even disputed ones. With a landslide win in Iowa, Sanders might be a fairly heavy overall favorite for the nomination.

If Iowa were a four-way pileup instead — with Sanders narrowly winning and Biden in a strong second place, for instance — Sanders’s projected bounce might not be enough to help him overtake Biden in national polls and the nomination could remain fairly open-ended.

https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/biden-is-the-front-runner-but-there-is-no-clear-favorite/

[Tom Rinaldo]

1. Sounds about right. Especially if the second place finisher is at least several points back.

It is probably not the way it should be, but it is probably the way that it is.

[crazytown]

2. It's the result, plus the media spin.

An upset win is more bright and shiny than a win, but surprisingly close seconds don't count for much. A shock loss is a different kettle of fish. Dean and HRC finished third in 2004 and 2008 respectively. The MSM went out of their way to bury Dean. HRC lived to fight another day,

[Demsrule86]

3. I don't buy it...I still think Iowa is not that important except for warren.

I don't think Buttigieg has a chance no matter what.

[NYMinute]

4. There will be no outright winner in either IA or NH

The difference in delegates will be in single digits and won't matter. No one is going to win a landslide.