DMR/Iowa poll: Down goes Buttigieg

[BeyondGeography]

Link to tweet

[bluewater]

1. Warren is back!

Nice to see her in a strong position going into the caucus.

And Sanders... woah, Sanders +5 jumps into the lead at 20%!

[Kurt V.]

2. in *Howard Cossel voice* :)

[Uncle Joe]

3. Kicked and recommended.

Thanks for the thread BeyondGeography.

[ritapria]

4. Bad News for Mayor Pete

What happened ? …. I am really surprised by that result ….It is still a very close race for first ..I thought Joe had rebounded in Iowa.... As I wrote earlier , it's still just another poll ...No Big Deal ….DMR has screwed up before ...Selzer is very good but it is impossible to poll Caucuses ...They have made good calls, like they did in 2008, but many foul ups as well .. Bernie is focusing on "non-likely voters" anyway ...Bad news for Amy, too ...If she was going to make a late surge , it would be happening now … Bernie is the only candidate focusing so heavily on the bread and butter issues that move people to caucus on a cold Monday night in February .. Bernie is not doing all the talking ...People who attend his townhalls speak about the terrible financial problems they face - particularly with regard to healthcare ….

[bluewater]

17. Mayor Pete has a strong ground game in Iowa.

He will do well in the actual caucus.

Biden though has the weakest ground game of the 4 leaders and at 15% he might just be on the bubble to get no delegates come actual voting.

How embarrassing would THAT be?

[lunasun]

5. Wow fickle Iowa this IA race keeps going all over the place since it started

[highplainsdem]

6. MOE of 3.7 so it's pretty much a statistical tie. Their previous poll showing Buttigieg leading

had his lead well outside the MOE, while the other three were basically tied.

Anyway, one more Iowa poll, with the various Iowa poll results all over, except for the top 4 being well ahead of the others in the race.

[crazytown]

9. Biden in 4th.

A statistical tie, but it's on the cards.

[highplainsdem]

10. But Sanders is at only 20%, which is the lowest support for the front-runner in this poll all year,

and it's the narrowest range of support for the top 4 candidates, only 5 points.

[crazytown]

16. Here is the way I see it.

As far as IA goes, upsets matter more than rankings. If Biden was to win big in IA the game would also change big time. If Sanders were to lose badly, ditto.

[bluewater]

21. Timing is everything.

This acknowledged BLUE RIBBON Des Moine Register poll, the gold standard of all Iowa polls, hits right before the next debate and with less than a month before the caucus itself.

Boom.



Game changer.

[highplainsdem]

22. LOL! Even with this "boom" factored in, Biden trails Sanderss by only 7/10 of 1% in 538's Iowa poll

average.

Link to tweet

NOT a game changer.

But keep dreaming...

[SaschaHM]

24. He's about to get a taste of what Buttigieg, Warren, and Biden have been facing.

Let the scrutiny and targeting begin.

[still_one]

28. Keep in mind that 11% are undecided

[highplainsdem]

30. I haven't forgotten. And I suspect that the fact Biden's usually seen as most electable will tend

to bring him more votes from those people deciding at the last minute.

[BeyondGeography]

12. Only one poll

But Biden worked pretty hard for zero movement in support.

[crazytown]

20. Biden has a lot more ads on IA TV now.

Buttigieg and Warren made the biggest investments in their ground games. It shows up in polls, but the personal relationships fashioned over time are more still important on caucus night.

Sanders is bragging about his enthusiastic volunteers. Like Obama in 2008, Buttigieg and Warren are playing their cards close to their chest.

One poll ... but a perfect fillip for the guys and gals doing the hard yards, stumping for Elizabeth in Iowa. Behind the NDAs, they know hard work and planning pays offs.

[BeyondGeography]

31. Great points

Positive reinforcement coming at the right time for Team Warren in Iowa after a long stretch of media negativity, although local press there has been less agenda-driven.

[bluewater]

14. Biden on the 15% bubble in this blue ribbon poll.

If he can't get 15% at the caucus, he gets no delegates and would be majorly embarrassed.

[bluewater]

13. This is the widely acknowledged BLUE RIBBON gold standard of Iowa Polls.

So, please, no sour grapes.

[dsc]

18. No they aren't

note the +/- means it can go either way. Sanders could be as low as 16.3% while Buttigieg could be as high as 19.7%

[bluewater]

19. Thank you. I know that but keep forgetting it when I post in a rush. lol

will self delete.

[evertonfc]

7. sad

It looks like the face of our party is old, white, Washington insiders. Im.sure the youth will relate

[BeyondGeography]

8. Warren and Sanders do very well with younger voters

Much better than the 37-year-old.

[Champion Jack]

11. Bingo!

[Prosper]

27. Sanders and Warren will do well with the millions left

behind in our economy’s loss of good paying jobs to businesses moved overseas to take advantage of cheap labor.

[SaschaHM]

23. Bernie's about to get the frontrunner treatment.

He's going to be the #1 target during the debate and in the weeks leading up to Iowa. Kid gloves are off.

[Prosper]

29. Bernie has had many many years of being attacked and defending his beliefs.

[HeartlandProgressive]

25. K&R

[still_one]

26. What this tells me is it is still very volatile, and it can be anyone of the top tier candidates

That Mayor Pete dropped so quickly to me indicates it can change just as quickly before the caucus

Also the 11% that are not sure can be a game changer