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Joe BidenCongratulations to our presumptive Democratic nominee, Joe Biden!

Sat Jan 11, 2020, 06:01 AM

 

CNN sponsored the DMR/Selzer poll. How did they report it?

Last edited Sat Jan 11, 2020, 08:09 AM - Edit history (2)

The Des MoniesRegister led with Bernie Sanders leads the Iowa Poll for the first time, just weeks before the Iowa caucuses
https://www.desmoinesregister.com/story/news/elections/presidential/caucus/2019/08/30/iowa-caucus-how-democratic-republican-caucuses-work-differences-presidential-preferences-primary/2164118001/

Not so CNN.


Iowa poll shows a tight four-way race in final weeks before the Democratic caucuses

(CNN)Iowa's likely caucusgoers are closely divided between four top candidates just weeks out from the Democratic caucuses, a new CNN/Des Moines Register/Mediacom poll shows.

https://www.cnn.com/2020/01/10/politics/iowa-poll-democrats-2020/index.html

Although they noted the numbers, CNN managed to get through their entire piece without reporting that Sanders was in the lead: "Vermont Sen. Bernie Sanders is on the rise".

Compare that with November.

Pete Buttigieg surges to first place in Iowa, new poll shows

There is a new Democratic front-runner in Iowa, and his name is Pete Buttigieg.

https://www.cnn.com/2019/11/16/politics/iowa-poll-cnn-pete-buttigieg/index.html

CNN managed to dig up some nice things to say about Pete. Losing 9 points, more than a third his supporters, ain't nice but

Even with those shifts, Buttigieg remains well-positioned in the poll. Sixty percent say they are supporting or considering his candidacy, and he remains among the best liked candidates in the field -- 68% have a favorable view, second only to Warren's 70% favorability rating.

And some bad news for Warren

For Biden and Warren, support is roughly even vs. November (Biden holds at 15%, Warren stands at 17% support vs. 16%). For Warren, though, the share who say she is their second choice or who are considering her has declined. Overall, 59% say they are either supporting or considering Warren, down from a high of 71% in September and 66% in November.

Good news for Sanders, is prefaced by a reference to his "core supporters"

Sanders' support has increased 5 points amid a boost from core supporters since a November CNN/Des Moines Register poll. Among liberals, support for Sanders is up 8 points, and he's climbed 9 points among those under age 35.

You might not guess that Sanders' support had risen across the board. Indeed, looking at the featured graphic, you might think Bernie had got some bad news.



Biden looks hopeful though. No reason for concern about flirting with 15%.
If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for:
Undecided

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Arrow 22 replies Author Time Post
Reply CNN sponsored the DMR/Selzer poll. How did they report it? (Original post)
crazytown Jan 2020 OP
Sherman A1 Jan 2020 #1
Hav Jan 2020 #2
True Blue American Jan 2020 #4
empedocles Jan 2020 #6
True Blue American Jan 2020 #8
crazytown Jan 2020 #9
True Blue American Jan 2020 #11
crazytown Jan 2020 #12
True Blue American Jan 2020 #14
BeyondGeography Jan 2020 #3
crazytown Jan 2020 #5
empedocles Jan 2020 #7
gab13by13 Jan 2020 #10
Iliyah Jan 2020 #13
True Blue American Jan 2020 #15
NYMinute Jan 2020 #16
TwilightZone Jan 2020 #17
disndat Jan 2020 #18
Uncle Joe Jan 2020 #19
highplainsdem Jan 2020 #20
crazytown Jan 2020 #21
brooklynite Jan 2020 #22

Response to crazytown (Original post)

Sat Jan 11, 2020, 06:08 AM

1. CNN is in the infotainment business

 

and is in need of the ongoing "horse race" narrative. Whatever they report will be filled with dramatic background music, a table full of talking heads discussing who's up, who's down, will this happen, but perhaps that will happen if "X" falls into place and on and on and on. Then they will break for a zillion ads for drugs we never knew we needed.

Rinse and repeat.
If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for:
Undecided

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Response to crazytown (Original post)

Sat Jan 11, 2020, 07:32 AM

2. I actually prefer media outlets who put the emphasis on a close race

 

when it's a statistical tie between four candidates because it would be statistically ignorant to do otherwise. Pete was outside the margin of error, if I remember correctly, and the lead was definitely high enough to warrant that headline.
I have more trust in outlets who don't talk about leads with 1-2% differences in the results. Those who treat these kind of differences as meaningful rather show a lack of understanding of polls.
If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for:
Joe Biden

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Response to Hav (Reply #2)

Sat Jan 11, 2020, 08:04 AM

4. I am sick to death

 

Of these constant breathless polls that call a few people and claim it is fact.

I admired Steve Kornacki when he came on. Now, he has become a breathless huckster. And CNN rushed to imitate him.

Now cable news is ranting about a singer I never heard of and a fitness instructor. In between constant pictures of Trump. That was 5 minutes. I now have my local news giving a weather report for my area.

But have read 5 books this week! So that is good.
If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for:
Joe Biden

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Response to True Blue American (Reply #4)

Sat Jan 11, 2020, 08:11 AM

6. 'sick to death of these constant breatless polls . . . '

 

. . . and the zealots who go nuts over them.
If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for:
Undecided

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Response to empedocles (Reply #6)

Sat Jan 11, 2020, 08:16 AM

8. I want to punch the TV

 

When they come on.
If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for:
Joe Biden

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Response to True Blue American (Reply #4)

Sat Jan 11, 2020, 08:27 AM

9. There are very few A+ rated polls out there,

 

and few still as highly regarded as Selzer. I would not dismiss it as a breathless poll that call a few people.
If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for:
Undecided

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Response to crazytown (Reply #9)

Sat Jan 11, 2020, 09:05 AM

11. I do dismiss

 

Just the way I do all the other asinine polls. Just because you like it does not mean I do.
If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for:
Joe Biden

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Response to True Blue American (Reply #11)

Sat Jan 11, 2020, 09:09 AM

12. And exit polls as well?

 

If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for:
Undecided

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Response to crazytown (Reply #12)

Sat Jan 11, 2020, 09:55 AM

14. That is people who voted

 

I worked the polls for years. Not likely they would lie.

Online and phone polls just reach a small segment.
If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for:
Joe Biden

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Response to crazytown (Original post)

Sat Jan 11, 2020, 07:42 AM

3. So Pete didn't sink like a stone

 

He just “shifted” below the candidate he was leading by nine points, who is now somehow in worse shape than he.

Ok.

If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for:
Undecided

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Response to BeyondGeography (Reply #3)

Sat Jan 11, 2020, 08:07 AM

5. Perhaps I've been listening to too many stump speeches

 

but I'd call that 'shift' Big Structural Change
If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for:
Undecided

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Response to BeyondGeography (Reply #3)

Sat Jan 11, 2020, 08:13 AM

7. Funny thing about the 'reports' on Pete and Liz

 

If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for:
Undecided

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Response to crazytown (Original post)

Sat Jan 11, 2020, 08:35 AM

10. Polls are used for propaganda,

 

I ignore them, even when they say something I agree with.

If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for:
Joe Biden

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Response to crazytown (Original post)

Sat Jan 11, 2020, 09:20 AM

13. I'm favoring VP Biden and Mayor Pete . . .

 

That said, seems like we are a nation of polling which purpose is to control how we as Americans are thinking, approving and favoring.

My opinion, we are a herd of cattle.
If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for:
Joe Biden

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Response to Iliyah (Reply #13)

Sat Jan 11, 2020, 09:58 AM

15. You said it!

 

I just moved out of the herd! 5 minutes of blather from cable sent me to the remote.

Did Nancy wait too long?

Bernie won the last poll!
Etc.
If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for:
Joe Biden

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Response to crazytown (Original post)

Sat Jan 11, 2020, 10:07 AM

16. I don't see any problem with CNN's reporting

 

A lead is not a lead unless it is beyond the margin of error. DMR jumped the gun with a sensational headline.
If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for:
Joe Biden

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Response to crazytown (Original post)

Sat Jan 11, 2020, 11:18 AM

17. It helps to understand how polls work.

 

If a race is within the margin of error, it's a statistical tie, not a lead.
If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for:
Joe Biden

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Response to crazytown (Original post)

Sat Jan 11, 2020, 11:28 AM

18. Trump campaign

 

is probably pouring money into Sanders campaign. They are so scared of Biden.
If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for:
Joe Biden

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Response to crazytown (Original post)

Sat Jan 11, 2020, 11:35 AM

19. One thing regarding CNN's advertising about the upcoming debate,

 

they don't mention the candidates by name anymore it's just "the leading Democrats" in previous debates they sounded off each candidate by name despite there being more of them to mention.

Thanks for the thread crazytown.
If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for:
Undecided

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Response to crazytown (Original post)

Sat Jan 11, 2020, 12:53 PM

20. The second paragraph of the CNN article, after a very short first paragraph, says Sanders is on the

 

rise, and gives the numbers for the top candidates.

I think that's perfectly adequate, honest, ethical reporting.

The top 4 candidates are in a narrow 5-point range -- the narrowest range for those top 4 candidates that the poll has found all year.

And Sanders has the lowest support of any of the 4 front-runners in the other Register/CNN/Selzer polls this year -- only 20%, compared to 25% for Buttigieg, 24% for Biden, and 22% for Warren, when each of them led.

It IS a tight 4-way race. Much more so than when Buttigeg was at 25%.

If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for:
Joe Biden

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Response to highplainsdem (Reply #20)


Response to crazytown (Original post)

Sat Jan 11, 2020, 05:56 PM

22. How about going with this headline?

 

“Sanders getting half the support he had in 2016”.

Anything factually wrong?
If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for:
Joe Biden

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