Endangered Democrats sound the alarm on Bernie and Warren

[comradebillyboy]

https://www.politico.com/news/2020/01/11/endangered-2020-democrats-downballot-carnage-097315

A slate of endangered House Democrats is coalescing behind Joe Biden for president as the Iowa caucuses approach — a surge of support triggered by fears that Bernie Sanders or Elizabeth Warren at the top of the ticket would cost them their seats.

More than a dozen swing-seat freshmen have taken part in at least one private call session with Biden, Amy Klobuchar or Pete Buttigieg in recent weeks. A handful have already gravitated toward the former vice president, and more are expected to follow before Democrats start voting on Feb. 3, according to interviews with 15 lawmakers, aides and campaign strategists.

snip

House Democrats in battleground districts are anxious for a moderate to lead the ballot in 2020, warning that a self-described socialist like Sen. Bernie Sanders (I-Vt.) or liberal icon like Elizabeth Warren (D-Mass.) could hurt their own chances in the fall — and help reelect President Donald Trump. Most won over independents and moderate Republicans to flip long-held GOP districts in 2018.

Some say a more liberal nominee threatens to shatter their electoral coalitions, and they have the data in their districts to prove it. A number of Democratic centrists — some of whom hold seats Trump carried by sizable margins — have studied internal polling showing Biden outperforming other Democratic contenders in head-to-heads with Trump in their respective districts.

[crazytown]

1. Nervous mega donors are on the phone, that's what is going on here.

[highplainsdem]

4. Yeah, as if progressive members of Congress haven't ever talked about trying to get rid of

Democratic incumbents who aren't so far left by primarying them. Never mind that a candidate farther left probably couldn't win those districts.

And those incumbents are probably right about Biden's coattails. We stand a much better chance of keeping those Democratic seats, and adding more, if he's the nominee.

[crazytown]

9. You won't be getting any arguments from me for outside groups like the so called 'Justice Democrats'

primarying incumbents.

At the same time, it's a disgrace the Party itself hasn't organized challenges to the likes of Henry Cuellar who fundraised against MJ Hegar in a tight contest. Little loyalty is owed to those who show none themselves.

[Demsrule86]

8. No, if Warren or Sanders is the nominee, we would likely lose the presidency and the house. It

was moderates that gave us the house...and they can take it away.

[ChiTownDenny]

15. I think that's because we live in a center/right country.

This country supports progress but it wants it incrementally.

[Demsrule86]

16. You are probably right...I often say center left...but when you look at the states, the Senate...

It kind of looks like it has moved further to the right. And if Trump is reelected it will move further right...always does...after Reagan, after Bush and now after Trump.

[ChiTownDenny]

17. +1

IMO, the voters determine the direction of the country. The right consistently votes, the left...not so much. So, we have a center/right country (even though I often hear that there are more of us than them).

[Demsrule86]

22. Well if there more of us than them...we are blowing it big time.

[Hassin Bin Sober]

2. Is there any way we could model a centrist against trump...

... to see what kind of coattails they would have versus trump?

[Autumn]

3. I believe that's been done.

[Sloumeau]

6. Every successful Democrat who became President from 1932 on ran as a moderate at least...

...the first time that they ran for office.

FDR ran a moderate who would bring happy days back (days before the Depression) by fixing the economy. He did not tell folks all of the big changes he would make in the government. If he had, he might not have gotten elected.

Truman ran as a status quo President who would largely keep things as they were.

JFK ran on his war hero record and being tough on Communism while getting the economy moving again.

LBJ escalated the Vietnam conflict to show he was tough on Communists, and to be tougher on them than Goldwater.

Carter was a God-fearing, business owning, Southern family man who wanted to unite the country after Watergate and improve the economy.

Bill Clinton ran as the great triangulator, finding the middle ground between Democrats and Republicans, and promising to fix the economy doing, among other things, NAFTA and Free Trade, something that Nixon, Reagan, and Bush I all wanted.

Obama ran as a moderate who would fix the economy using Keynesian/FDR/Clinton economic methods and would offer the Republican Heritage Foundation-backed Romneycare Health Plan.

They all ran the first time as moderates, not as revolutionaries. Most of them did something significant while in office, but in regard to most of the big changes in government that they made while in office, they did not run on most of the specific plans the first time that they ran.

[Demsrule86]

10. Look at the midterms...your answer is there...you run either Sanders or Warren in moderate states...

we lose...and we probably lose Virginia to...which means the state goes back to purple at the very least. We have to win WI, MI and PA...or Trump wins. If he wins Virginia, we are done. And I don't know how many noticed this...Warren came out for Trump's new NAFTA...which ends any chance of a win for her in the mid west. I suppose she was trying for the support of Iowa farmers...but that won't help her in a general or us.

[Thekaspervote]

5. Joe will not only give to their campaigns he indeed will have coattails. Not as much as

President Obama.... but they know who will support them

[LakeArenal]

7. People seem to underestimate the hold Dump supporters hold on places.

In Wisconsin Bernie is popular. I don’t think any woman has a chance in Wisconsin.

Our purplish State is 47-47%. That struggle for 4% is really a struggle. But you have to get it.

If that means you vote less liberal to beat the Pukes you do.

The same for Klobuchar voting judges in MN that she would never do if reality ruled.

Reality has not ruled since Bush was elected.

[Demsrule86]

12. +1000 You are exactly right and some do not see the world as it is...I assume

many if not most are from safe blue districts or states.

[UniteFightBack]

26. This is a good example of Dem's voting with their heads. nt

[ritapria]

11. Enangered Democrats

should be encouraged that Sanders will bring in millions of first time voters to the polls in 2020 ...They should be encouraged that Sanders has a massive grass roots army on his side that will bring about a huge increase in Democratic base turnout ...They should be encouraged that Sanders , a real populist for the last 50 years , is going to defeat a faux populist like Donald Trump in the General Election … We have been down this centrist road time and time again , only to lose time and time again... .. In 2008 President Obama ran and won as an opponent of destructive trade deals ..He ran as an antiwar candidate ..He developed a huge grass roots army that served as a mighty wind at his back ...Remember "Hope and Change" ? ….When we 'play it safe", we lose ….. It may seem counter-intuitive , but it is true nonetheless …..We no longer live in the political world of the 1990's …

[Demsrule86]

13. Not where they live...and we could lose the presidency and the house. That is the truth...those who

want what they want against all evidence (mid terms) could wake up and find Trump wins and we lost the house.

[crimycarny]

19. Obama also had overwhelming charisma

Obama didn't win based on his "Hope and Change" message alone, he knew how to sell it. He was the perfect combination of looks, charisma, intelligence, and excellent oratory skills. He had "it". He got people excited with stirring speeches that we hadn't seen in years. Thankfully he wasn't only about charisma, he believed in what he stood for, he was a brilliant intellectual, a brilliant politician, and was a great judge of character thus surrounding himself with excellent staff. One of the best US Presidents in history. But without that "it" factor, I'm not sure Obama would have won on his policies alone.

Look at Trump. How in the h*ll did someone like that win? Because he also had "it" except his was fear-based versus hope-based. He is an evil genius at stirring up an audience and getting people motivated to go out and vote. Obama motivated people by selling hope, Trump motivated people by selling fear. The key is the ability to "sell" your message. Ted Cruz could have recited Trump's rallies word for word and gotten laughed off the stage. Ted Cruz didn't have "it".

I don't know if any of our current candidates have "it". The closest IMO would be Bernie Sanders but his "it" factor seems to be with younger voters or voters already leaning to the left. Obama cast a much wider net. I don't think Biden has that "it" factor, but he represents a return to stability in a lot of voter's minds. People are shaken right now and the US seems a bit turned upside down. When people feel the world around them is in chaos, they want a return to the familiar, they don't want to take yet another risk.

I'm not saying a return to the familiar is the right direction to go, I'm simply stating that this is my suspicion of what type of candidate is going to appeal to voters in 2020.

[Lexblues]

20. And there's no guarantee Bernie voters will vote down ballot either

Most are Bernie or bust voters and could give a shit about the rest of the party. Bernie would be terrible for Congressional Dems.

[OliverQ]

24. And Biden will be attacked over Ukraine, China, etc.

so much, he'll have the same problem Hillary did. The FBI is already investigating Russian attempts to target Biden. Some "email" type bombshell will come out before the election, and Biden will lose just like Hillary.

[Cha]

18. Understandable.. they want a winner who will

beat #45IMPEACHED in the Swing States & Districts..

[jcmaine72]

21. So, Democrats who won in traditionally Republican districts by running to

the right to attract (so-called) moderate Republicans want Biden out of fear of losing their seats?

Kinda odd (not to mention a wee bit self-loathing) that any Democrat would want to distance themselves from other Democrats out of fear of appearing too, dare I say, "liberal".

You gotta hand it to professional ReThug propagandists like Limpballs and Sean Phonity. They've done such a brilliant job over the past three decades or so redefining the word "liberal" to mean something shameful that some Democrats will go to any lengths just to avoid being accused of being one, even if it means avoiding any association with some fellow Democrats. How come we never see moderate Republican politicians trying desperately to avoid any association with fellow Republicans others perceive as being conservative?

[Demsrule86]

23. A perceived socialist at the top of the ticket could cost them the election according to

polling . And honestly Sanders is running as a Democrat in the primary but will revert back to an independent if he runs for the senate in 24. It is not a bad thing in GOP circles to be conservative...no such thing as too conservative in Trump states and districts which gave us the mid term but it is a bad thing to be to the left in those states. We are going after the burbs and they are moderate voters. We could lose the house and the presidency if we run a person considered of the left.

[UniteFightBack]

28. There is left and then there is way left and that's when you lose those people you need.

It's not a perceived socialist - he has said he is one so it would be a death blow. I will pretend it's not and still try to get whoever the D is elected but talk about a tough row to hoe??? Don't we have enough stress??? Vote with your HEADS Dem's!!!

[ProfessorPlum]

25. well said

[UniteFightBack]

27. Nobody is 'running to the right'. Please be REALISTIC...remember that, reality. There are a lot

of these people still here in this country and we must keep winning - especially with all the chicanery...... or all is fucking lost !!

So you take your wish list and set it aside and you take a good think and think about who can really win in the states we need, hell maybe even flip one or two and who can help all the down ticket candidates. When you think about it there is one clear answer and that is Joe Biden...now get on board so we can start fighting dump NOW.

[TwilightZone]

29. They didn't run to the right.

They're moderate Democrats. That's generally who wins in purple/red-leaning states. Nearly all of the seats we picked up in 2018 were moderate Dems who won in R-leaning districts.

Not all districts are the same. We need to run candidates who meet the makeup of the districts. What works in Massachusetts isn't going to work in suburban Texas, for example.

[moose65]

30. What makes me laugh...

It makes me laugh that no matter how centrist or moderate a Democrat tries to be, the Republican running against them is always going to brand them as an evil commie libtard. Even Joe Manchin gets called a librul in West Virginia. 🙄