2020 ad spending

[bluewater]

Link to tweet

Hmm.

Steyer might just be showing that money can by you love... from primary voters.

[Algernon Moncrieff]

1. Shouldn't it be "Bloomberg might just be showing that money can by you love... from primary voters."

I see a lot of Steyer ads, but his numbers aren't moving. I see a lot of Bernie ads, and a few for Mayor Pete. Bloomberg was running ads here, but stopped. However nationwide, his numbers are moving up rapidly.

[bluewater]

2. As a Steyer supporter, did you miss these stunning latest polls?

Tom Steyer Qualifies for Democratic Debate With Two Surprising Polls

Mr. Steyer will join five other candidates onstage on Tuesday after registering double-digit support in Nevada and South Carolina.

https://www.nytimes.com/2020/01/09/us/politics/tom-steyer-democratic-debate.html

Steyer's ads seem to have been very effective.

Boomberg's, not so much... yet.

[Sloumeau]

3. Because Steyer was trying to get into the debate, he focused on a few...

..."Early Primary" states and pounded them with ads. Since Bloomberg is skipping the first four state primaries and caucuses, and not trying to go for the debates, he is spending a lot in places like Califonia and Super Tuesday states. This has allowed him to leapfrog anyone below the top 7 contenders nationally, but we won't really have an idea of his impact until after Super Tuesday. My guess is that he ends up doing better than most, but never superscedes Biden, Sanders, or Warren. At best, I think he could supplant Buttigieg in a number 4 position.

[Algernon Moncrieff]

5. Agreed

To me the three big questions that remain are these:

1) I think most outside the top 5 will drop out after either New Hampshire or Iowa. Where do their votes go? For example, if Klobuchar drops - do most of her folks go to Biden? Warren? Mayor Pete? Bloomberg?

2) How long does Mayor Pete last in this thing?

3) Will either Bernie or Warren drop out prior to Super Tuesday and endorse the other one / declare themselves to be a team? I'd put the odds on that as unlikely - about 1/20, but that would really shift the dynamics of the race and possibly draw us toward an open convention.

I agree with an assessment that another DUer (whose name eludes me) posted - Bloomberg isn't aiming to win, but he is aiming to have influence at the convention. I think that he may essentially be running for Veep.

[Sloumeau]

6. I recently came to the conclusion that a how long each candidate stays in will ultimately...

come down to money.

Each of the people who have dropped out has seemed to drop out when the money ran out, and when it also seemed like too much of an uphill battle to raise more. I think many believe that even if they can't win, they can 1) raise their profile by being in the race as long as possible and 2) have a chance at getting at least a few delegates which they can trade for something later on at convention time.

"Andrew Yang, you didn't win, but you got 30 delegates, you can offer them up to Candidate X to help him snag the nomination. In return, he makes you Ambassador of South Korea"

"Amy Klobuchar, you didn't win, but you got 34 delegates. You can now be Secretary of the Interior"

I have no idea what people would want, but, especially if we get in a brokered convention, those delegates will mean something.

[Algernon Moncrieff]

4. Looking at the RCP averages. Bloomberg is polling better than Steyer

https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2020/president/us/2020_democratic_presidential_nomination-6730.html

I grant that doesn't appear to be the case in the most recent Economist/YouGov Poll, but when you look at the past month, that poll looks like an outlier.

[beastie boy]

7. Looks like Biden bought himself the #1 spot with just $2.6 mil!

He may be a moderate incrementalist and behind the times, but he must be a frigging financial genius!

[crazytown]

9. Nope.

You are 'forgetting' Unite The Country', set up by his maxed out donors - not that they are co-ordinating, y'now.

[beastie boy]

10. I srand corrected. Biden's campaign and UTC together bought Biden the #1 spot for a total of $5.1Mil

https://www.opensecrets.org/outsidespending/detail.php?cmte=C00701888

Ok, so Biden may not be a frigging financial genius all by himself, but between the two, if you assume all the Unite the Country spending went to promote Biden alone and none of it went to salaries, expenses, etc., there must be a frigging financial genius somewhere there!