#Iowa Democratic Primary, RCP Average:

[Gothmog]

Link to tweet

[George II]

1. Biden is SURGING!

[TexasTowelie]

2. K&R! nt

[getagrip_already]

3. because it's a caucus...

I don't put much faith in the polls. There is too much variability, not the least of which is weather.

One of the examples I like to give is that it isn't easy for a lot of elderly or poorer rural voters to get to a caucus site, spend a considerable amount of time there, and then get home again.

So if elderly voters just can't make it out on a snowy evening, that hits one candidate harder.

It's not a democratic system. Not everybody can vote, even if they want to.

But, it really doesn't matter much. If biden and bernie get within a few percent of each other, they will get the same number of delegates. Probably around 12 each. Out of 5400.

Woo friggin hoo.

[Thekaspervote]

4. Go Joe go!!

[crazytown]

5. And the result will be 1. Warren, 2. Buttigieg, 3. Sanders, 4. Biden.

Being saying that for months. No reason to change my mind. (ITGGS ... it's the ground game stup*d)

[MineralMan]

6. Four candidates will divide up the paltry number of Iowa delegates.

The rest will get nothing. The division among the four will be fairly even in numbers, making the Iowa caucuses meaningless, really, in the grander scheme of things. They will settle nothing, but they will serve to narrow the field down to only four. That's valuable, but that's the only thing the Iowa caucuses will do.

New Hampshire is pretty similar, really, but has even fewer delegates to allocate. This is why the early states matter so much less this election year than in previous years. They will have very little, if any, impact on the race for the nomination.

March 3 is much, much different. We will see a leader emerge from Super Tuesday in the results on March 4. Then, we will begin to see the shape of the primary season for the first time, and we will see it in the delegate counts from all those states.

Hang onto your seats. It's going to get a lot more interesting on March 4. At least one of the four leaders will be forced to drop out on March 4. Then, there will be three.

[jdl123]

7. Iowa caucus

I seem to be hearing a lot about Iowa caucus. Why is Iowa important? I'm sure Iowa is a great state with great people, but, they are only one of 50 states. Is it because if a candidate does well in Iowa, they can tell donors, " hey look, I did great in Iowa, send more money". Is that the only reason? lol