NYT: Sanders surges to lead in Iowa (+8 over Biden, 7 over Buttigieg)

[Tiggeroshii]

https://www.nytimes.com/2020/01/25/us/politics/democratic-iowa-poll-sanders.html?action=click&module=Top+Stories&pgtype=Homepage&fbclid=IwAR3jjcK9F6_onXyaGLTwIm4HXHK-3ykgGHouuGFF3-Rarw6oil8o8YSVkVk

Bernie 25
Pete 18
Biden 17
Warren 15


GO Bernie!!!!

[Thekaspervote]

1. Same poll shows sanders losing to trump in the GE by 6 pts!!

So...you want to nominate a guy who’s going to lose to trump?? Why??

[DanTex]

2. In Iowa, not nationally. Trump won Iowa by 10 points last time.

[Thekaspervote]

4. Oh great!! So your guy wins IA, but loses the GE?

Why would anyone do that??

[DanTex]

6. That GE poll is just for the state of Iowa, not nationally.

[zentrum]

5. Does it show Biden beating Trump?

[Thekaspervote]

7. I cannot see the link... here's the most telling poll of all

Current EC map
Biden 307
Sanders 230
Warren 210

Link to tweet

?s=21

[melman]

13. If you can't see the link

then how did you know this?

[Thekaspervote]

18. The above post is not part of the NYT poll.

[Tiggeroshii]

14. Early GE polls mean squat at this point.

https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/should-we-take-these-early-general-election-polls-seriously-no/

In the runup to the 2016 presidential election, this same question came up, and FiveThirtyEight analyzed general election polls from 1944 to 2012 that tested the eventual nominees and were conducted in the last two months of the year before the election (so for 2012, that would be November and December of 2011). On average, these polls missed the final result by 11 percentage points.2

[emmaverybo]

47. What means something is that Biden has a much wider appeal across demographic groups

and the political spectrum than Sanders, and is far and away more job-specific qualified, experienced, and accomplished. These facts and his ability to communicate at a deeper emotional level with voters gives him a better chance in the GE.

Further, Biden has gone for Trump from day one, not for other Dems. Voters know he is well able for that monster because he’s got his number and clearly articulates the contrast before us in 2020. To make the case for Sanders more difficult, his support is low with our base, the AA electorate. He has failed to create relationships with AA communities and leaders, as graphically demonstrated in his dance with Steyer while Biden, as we often see, was engaging.

Finally, Biden has in-depth knowledge and experience in world affairs as well as stature on the world stage. He is much more the leader for this moment we are in than Sanders whose focus is limited to a set promises he likely can not fulfill in the near future, if ever. Sanders forte has been starting a movement, and he should be commended for that. Does not mean he should become the leader of the free world, CIC of a super power among super powers at such perilous time.

Polls may mean nothing. Fitness for the highest office in the land and to become the most powerful world leader means everything. Biden has demonstrated that he is prepared. Sanders may or may not be.

[UniteFightBack]

48. +1000, it's like people don't want to win. I can't imagine caring about any issue more than WINNING

[Tiggeroshii]

51. Hogwash

Slightly wider not much wider.

[zentrum]

79. Agreed.

[highplainsdem]

9. No, but he's much closer to beating Trump than Sanders is.

[Tiggeroshii]

15. Early polls mean nothing right now.

In the runup to the 2016 presidential election, this same question came up, and FiveThirtyEight analyzed general election polls from 1944 to 2012 that tested the eventual nominees and were conducted in the last two months of the year before the election (so for 2012, that would be November and December of 2011). On average, these polls missed the final result by 11 percentage points.

https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/should-we-take-these-early-general-election-polls-seriously-no/

[Thekaspervote]

19. If early polls they mean nothing then why post them??!!

[Hassin Bin Sober]

31. Because he posted this thread about a primary poll and you started squawking about a GE poll.

Then he said GE polls are meaningless right now and you said why did you post one. He didn’t.

Does this help?

[Thekaspervote]

50. It doesn't change the numbers!! The numbers are not there for sanders

Besides, the stark reality is why support someone who can’t win the GE!!

[Hassin Bin Sober]

56. The most qualified candidate ever lost Iowa by ten points.

[Thekaspervote]

62. Which proves my point as well is others!! This is about IA!!

[highplainsdem]

10. No, but he's much closer to beating Trump than Sanders is.

https://www.democraticunderground.com/1287445446

[BeyondGeography]

11. No but it does show this

One troubling sign for Mr. Sanders came in an ideological matchup with Mr. Trump. In The Times/Siena poll, 56 percent of caucusgoers said they thought a democratic socialist would have a harder rather than an easier time defeating the president — a higher number than those who said the same about a woman, a gay candidate or one over 75.

[Tiggeroshii]

17. We've lost aplenty as moderates over the last couple decades. I say give it a shot.

Plus this is ONLY Iowa.

[Demsrule86]

23. I say no...we don't give it a shot and keep the most dangerous president ever in power...Sander

will not win a general although I will vote for him in the General.

[BeyondGeography]

29. I think it will be a tough race either way nt

[whistler162]

8. yeah right!

what is it with polls and the gullible!

[Tiggeroshii]

12. RCP average now has Biden going into IA at +.7

Biden is toast if he loses IA at this point, since his lead nationally is steadily eroding.

[Vogon_Glory]

16. Toast, eh?

I remember at least one Presidential candidate winning Iowa but losing enough primaries that someone else got nominated as their party’s presidential candidate.

Iowa may be early in the primary season, but it is neither representative of the Democratic Party or the country as a whole.

[Tiggeroshii]

20. Burnt toast

That candidate had no national recognition when he won Iowa, no grassroots support or fundraising

[Demsrule86]

24. Bill Clinton lost both Iowa and New Hampshire...and won the election...Sanders has nowhere to go

when we hit diverse states...You think AA voters are going to flock to him because he won Iowa...especially after Rogan? No they won't. There are not enough open primaries for him to mobilize the Republicans to vote in our primary for him...so here is my prediction...by super Tuesday, he is toast. I won't have to vote for him in the general (Thanks Goddess). Of course if I am wrong, he gets my vote but only in a general. I would vote for Tulsi in the Primary before him.

[Tiggeroshii]

27. Polling suggests AAs and POC support is more than the national support

I'm talking in the present. It sounds as if you are talking about what polls were looking like a month ago.

[Demsrule86]

37. No...Sanders never had much AA support and he will have less after Rogan...This is why he is

slated to lose Carolina by double digits...and it will be worse now...if I were Biden, I would use the Rogan endorsement to show why Sanders should not be the Democratic nominee...it is truthful which makes it more fair that Sander's campaign attacks against Biden and Warren.

[Thekaspervote]

22. Oh.. the demise of Joe's campaign rides again!!

[Demsrule86]

25. More wishful thinking. The money guys are moving to Biden which means...they think he will be the

nominee.

[Thekaspervote]

26. Hand stands!!

[Tiggeroshii]

28. How certain of Joe's win are you, really?

Scale of 1 to 10, 10 being most certain?

[Demsrule86]

35. 10...

Now more than ever.

[Thekaspervote]

52. Right there with ya!!

[Thekaspervote]

21. IA means little with the upcoming onslaught that sanders will face

Link to tweet

?s=21

If you don’t thinks so, here’s an interactive link for you to look at how your guy is doing in the latest state polls

https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/president-primary-d/national/

The numbers are just not there for him. Sanders got 40% of the dem primary votes in 2016, he is polling half that now. Even if we’re to gain all of Warren’s support it would not even give him the 2016 total. thehill.com

[Tiggeroshii]

30. I mean. This is no fun and pointless without a wager, frankly.

[Hassin Bin Sober]

45. that .7 lead includes a ridiculous +10 for Biden poll by a guy who moonlights to "stop socialism"

[Tiggeroshii]

80. Do you know the 538 rating on it?

[Hassin Bin Sober]

81. Non existent I think.

Suddenly a very important poll!

[Tiggeroshii]

82. Oh ok that puts Sanders up .5 on 538

https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/president-primary-d/iowa/

I think

[DanTex]

32. Interesting that all of Bernie's gain, basically, came from Warren.

Bernie went from 19 in the last poll to 25 in this one.
Warren from 22 to 15.

So maybe Warren's sneak-attack thing backfired.

[Demsrule86]

38. You know what I think that is a really shitty thing to say...Sander's campaign put out GOTV

script which stabbed her in the back in Iowa and other places the week before-despite their supposed team...Someone leaked what Sanders had said in private that a woman couldn't win the presidency and yeah he said it. Warren told the truth which makes her a better person in every way than Sanders and my second choice. He lied on the debate stage IMHO and no good will come to him this way. Also, Warren has a hell of a GOTV caucus effort..way better than Sanders I am told so I would not count her out if I were you.

[DanTex]

41. Yes, it was shitty of Warren to accuse Sanders of saying something he would obviously never say.

It's contrary to everything Bernie has said his entire life, particularly since he tried to recruit her to run in 2016. Obviously, nobody outside of a small bubble believed her which explains her subsequent drop in the polls. It seems like it was a Kamikaze play for Biden's VP slot -- you know, split up the progressives, tank her own campaign but hurt Bernie enough to pave the road for Biden.

I mean, even if in an alternate reality in which he did say that, it would still be a shitty thing for her to do, to leak a private conversation two years after the fact as a political hit job on someone who shares her platform and political vision. From now on, anyone who thinks they are having a private conversation with her is going to know that at any moment she might leak it to the press misleadingly for her political advantage.

It's a shame, I really like Warren, but like a lot of people, that backstab left me stunned.

[Thekaspervote]

55. You got that exactly backwards

Sanders campaign openly admitted peddling “stuff” about warren door to door in the early states

[Aaron Pereira]

33. I'm really surprised to see this in the face of all the personal attacks this week.

Looks like it's backfiring which is a good thing for all of us.

[Demsrule86]

36. The polls are not from this week...give them time...

He is toast.

[totodeinhere]

43. And the more likely it becomes that Bernie has a real shot at actually winning the

nomination the attacks will only get worse IMHO. And I'm talking about attacks coming from people who we would have thought are on the same side. Some people seem to forget that after we eventually do get a nominee, whoever she or he may be, we need to come together as a party to defeat Trump. But these attacks will not help toward that end. Constructive criticism is fine. Advocacy for the candidate of our choice is fine. But some of the vicious mean spirited attacks I have seen lately at this forum are totally out of bounds and can only play into Trump's hands.

[Aaron Pereira]

44. Exactly. Personal attacks and gratuitous hostility can't easily be smoothed over in six months.

If that's the strategy for taking Sanders down it seems extremely short sighted.

When personalized attacks are shown to backfire the only thing left is a focus on the record and vision which is the argument we should be having.

[InAbLuEsTaTe]

34. Damn straight... GO BERNIE!! The Boundless Bernie Bashing Backlash continues unabated!!

Keep up the Bernie Bashing... it only accelerates Bernie's surge in the polls!!


Bernie/Elizabeth or Elizabeth/Bernie 2020!!
Either way, they're stronger together & can't be bought!!
Jump on the Bernie Bandwagon & join the revolution!!

[yaesu]

39. Bernie is kickin butt but I never put much faith in any poll, even those days before an election

I like Bernie, he probably will be my primary choice so I wishing him all the best.

[Thekaspervote]

54. Where is he "kicking butt" please show me!!

Link to tweet

?s=21

Here’s an interactive link to current state polls. Not exactly a good look for someone who is “kicking butt.”


https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/president-primary-d/national/

[George II]

40. A couple of screenshots which include this poll:

[Thekaspervote]

58. Thx for posting So sanders and Biden are going to split the delegates, that's a given

The onslaught facing sanders in the following states, besides NH will pretty much prove that sanders will NOT be the nominee!!

[evertonfc]

42. Trump

will beat Bernie quite easily.

[UniteFightBack]

49. I've already been hearing attacks on Sanders from the puke dumpers in my life. I mean they

are going to attack whomever...I just don't think we should make it THAT EASY for them.

[Green Line]

53. Yes he will

Bernie gives us 4 more years of Trump

[Thekaspervote]

59. +1000

[calguy]

74. Hillary will probably work as hard for bernie

as Bernie worked hard for her.

[booley]

46. Awesome. Though I am still goingot keep working

signed up for some phone banks

[Thekaspervote]

60. RCP and 538 poll averages for Ia are showing a tie between sanand Biden

Nothing new

[Tiggeroshii]

70. Biden was ahead by about 4 until this one

Two polls show in ng 6 points ahead

[George II]

78. That was quick...I'm impressed!

[lapucelle]

83. Welcome to DU Tiggerbees.

[loveboy]

61. Betting markets have Bernie favorite

Betting markets at PredictIt today flipped.

Bernie went from behind to now odds on favorite for BOTH Iowa and the overall nomination.

No one likes this type of financialization, but the reality is that the markets are usually right and they’ve decided, Bernie is our nominee and it’s time to us to all unite.

[ismnotwasm]

64. Betting markets?

Could you explain more, if you don’t mind?

[loveboy]

66. Betting markets

It’s a market where people buy / sell contracts on which candidates are likely to win or lose a political event. You buy in the anticipation that the price for your candidate will rise as they gain popularity. The biggest market is PredictIt and Biden has always been the top tick for Iowa and the nomination for a LONG time.

That flipped today and Bernie surged to to the top around mid-day.

We might not like it, but the markets are right most of the time because people are betting with their own money (there is a lot of academic research around why the markets are the best predictor).

[ismnotwasm]

68. Thank you

[SaschaHM]

71. Haha, that's a good one.

Bernie may win, but black voters aren't going to let betting markets and white voters make their choices for them. We can unite after the last primary.

[loveboy]

76. True

Plenty of primary season to run, but the betting markets are reflecting just one very important fact ... the winner of Iowa statistically goes on to take the nomination > 95% of the time.

Yes, that 5% variance is there like with anything (Trump vs Cruz in 2016 is an example) but generally, the market is always right.

[MineralMan]

65. Thank goodness we don't have to wait much longer to see

how Iowa goes. In a few days, we'll know. Then, we can move on to more important primary campaign events. Polls about the Iowa caucuses are all over the place.

We'll have our answer about that shortly, won't we? We'll also have a good estimate of delegate counts from Iowa. Not that there are enough delegates to matter, but we'll know.

[loveboy]

67. Yes

We need to put this behind us quick and get it over with.

If Biden wins I will support him 100%.

If Bernie wins I will support him 100%.

[loveboy]

77. Unlikely

If Biden loses Iowa would he really survive thru to ST ...

Would he want to?

[Tiggeroshii]

69. Agreed!

[Yeehah]

84. I think this explains Mrs. Clinton's recent attack

Maybe I'm just cynical.