Sanders up 13 points in Utah

[OliverQ]

https://thehill.com/homenews/campaign/480101-poll-sanders-leads-by-13-percentage-points-in-utah

[George II]

1. That's the first and only poll out of Utah, another predominantly white state. Unbelievably....

....it was a poll of only 132 likely voters! That means 35 (yes, THIRTY FIVE!) chose Sanders!

[Wellstone ruled]

5. Yah right.

Which County did they focus their calls on. Wow,sounds pretty desperate.

[OliverQ]

6. Which means only 10 people chose Biden.

[George II]

8. Actually 16. And if a few people got up in bad moods when called the result could have been....

....significantly different.

Here's the breakdown of actual people:

Sanders -35
Warren - 18
Biden - 16
Bloomberg - 13

With that huge margin of error, anyone's number could go up or down 3 (i.e., Sanders could be 32-38, Warren could be 15-21, Biden could be 13-19, Bloomberg could be 10-16)

So we're going on about a poll where only 132 of more than 3 million people - one in every 23,000 Utahans.

[TexasTowelie]

2. Small sample with an extremely large MOE.

The Suffolk University/Salt Lake Tribune poll surveyed 500 adults over the phone, including 132 likely Democratic voters, between Jan. 18 and 22. The margin of error among Democratic respondents is 8.5 percentage points.

[George II]

3. We posted simultaneously. 538 rates the pollster A-, but wonder what they think of the poll itself.

[frazzled]

4. And what does that mean, exactly?

It means this:

1. He might get 29 of the 1990+ delegates needed to win the Democratic nomination. That leaves 1,1961 delegates to obtain.

2. Utah has voted solidly Republican since 1968. In the most recent elections the Democratic candidates have received 34.4% (Obama in 2008); 24.75% (Obama in 2012); and 27.17% (Clinton in 2016). Neither Sanders nor any Democrat is going to win Utah in 2020.

Ergo: nobody really cares who is ahead in the Utah Democratic primary. Nice attempt to try to make your candidate sound really really popular!!

[OliverQ]

7. If you look at my posts, Bernie is not my candidate.

[Thekaspervote]

10. Ouch!!

[Sparko55]

11. Yup, and same with South Carolina

I get the whole "well black voters make up the most reliable Democratic voting block", which is true, but as with 2016 didn't much matter who won the South Carolina primary because there wasn't a rats ass chance of winning it in the general election. So Utah is the same. Who's cares.

It would be far better for the Dems to have 4 or 5 regional primaries in order of electoral college imperatives to arrive at a consensus candidate that could reasonably be expected to perform well in the states that have half a chance of success.