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Joe BidenCongratulations to our presumptive Democratic nominee, Joe Biden!

Mon Jan 27, 2020, 01:11 PM

 

Sanders up 13 points in Utah

https://thehill.com/homenews/campaign/480101-poll-sanders-leads-by-13-percentage-points-in-utah
If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for:
Undecided

11 replies, 717 views

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Arrow 11 replies Author Time Post
Reply Sanders up 13 points in Utah (Original post)
OliverQ Jan 2020 OP
George II Jan 2020 #1
Wellstone ruled Jan 2020 #5
OliverQ Jan 2020 #6
George II Jan 2020 #8
TexasTowelie Jan 2020 #2
George II Jan 2020 #3
frazzled Jan 2020 #4
OliverQ Jan 2020 #7
Thekaspervote Jan 2020 #10
Name removed Jan 2020 #9
Sparko55 Jan 2020 #11

Response to OliverQ (Original post)

Mon Jan 27, 2020, 01:16 PM

1. That's the first and only poll out of Utah, another predominantly white state. Unbelievably....

 

....it was a poll of only 132 likely voters! That means 35 (yes, THIRTY FIVE!) chose Sanders!
If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for:
Joe Biden

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Response to George II (Reply #1)

Mon Jan 27, 2020, 01:27 PM

5. Yah right.

 

Which County did they focus their calls on. Wow,sounds pretty desperate.
If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for:
Joe Biden

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Response to George II (Reply #1)

Mon Jan 27, 2020, 01:30 PM

6. Which means only 10 people chose Biden.

 

If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for:
Undecided

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Response to OliverQ (Reply #6)

Mon Jan 27, 2020, 01:37 PM

8. Actually 16. And if a few people got up in bad moods when called the result could have been....

 

....significantly different.

Here's the breakdown of actual people:

Sanders -35
Warren - 18
Biden - 16
Bloomberg - 13

With that huge margin of error, anyone's number could go up or down 3 (i.e., Sanders could be 32-38, Warren could be 15-21, Biden could be 13-19, Bloomberg could be 10-16)

So we're going on about a poll where only 132 of more than 3 million people - one in every 23,000 Utahans.


If I were to vote in a presidential
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Joe Biden

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Response to OliverQ (Original post)

Mon Jan 27, 2020, 01:16 PM

2. Small sample with an extremely large MOE.

 

The Suffolk University/Salt Lake Tribune poll surveyed 500 adults over the phone, including 132 likely Democratic voters, between Jan. 18 and 22. The margin of error among Democratic respondents is 8.5 percentage points.
If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for:
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Response to TexasTowelie (Reply #2)

Mon Jan 27, 2020, 01:19 PM

3. We posted simultaneously. 538 rates the pollster A-, but wonder what they think of the poll itself.

 

If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for:
Joe Biden

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Response to OliverQ (Original post)

Mon Jan 27, 2020, 01:26 PM

4. And what does that mean, exactly?

 

It means this:

1. He might get 29 of the 1990+ delegates needed to win the Democratic nomination. That leaves 1,1961 delegates to obtain.

2. Utah has voted solidly Republican since 1968. In the most recent elections the Democratic candidates have received 34.4% (Obama in 2008); 24.75% (Obama in 2012); and 27.17% (Clinton in 2016). Neither Sanders nor any Democrat is going to win Utah in 2020.

Ergo: nobody really cares who is ahead in the Utah Democratic primary. Nice attempt to try to make your candidate sound really really popular!!

If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for:
Joe Biden

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Response to frazzled (Reply #4)

Mon Jan 27, 2020, 01:32 PM

7. If you look at my posts, Bernie is not my candidate.

 

If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for:
Undecided

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Response to frazzled (Reply #4)

Mon Jan 27, 2020, 02:14 PM

10. Ouch!!

 

If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for:
Joe Biden

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Response to OliverQ (Original post)


Response to OliverQ (Original post)

Mon Jan 27, 2020, 02:47 PM

11. Yup, and same with South Carolina

 

I get the whole "well black voters make up the most reliable Democratic voting block", which is true, but as with 2016 didn't much matter who won the South Carolina primary because there wasn't a rats ass chance of winning it in the general election. So Utah is the same. Who's cares.

It would be far better for the Dems to have 4 or 5 regional primaries in order of electoral college imperatives to arrive at a consensus candidate that could reasonably be expected to perform well in the states that have half a chance of success.

If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for:
Undecided

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