Could Biden steamroll the Democratic field?

[Gothmog]

Without caucuses in a good number of states, sanders will have problems due to fact that Joe is a far stronger general election candidate compared to a weak candidate like sanders

Link to tweet

Biden benefits from a field of weak opponents, none of whom could sustain their brief polling bumps, a significant reduction in the number of caucuses and that nature of primary voting — where momentum for the frontrunner builds and the laggards quickly collapse. Only Sen. Bernie Sanders (I-Vt.) poses a challenge, and there is plenty of angst about him.

The most important dynamic for Biden is that the race is rapidly narrowing to Biden vs. Sanders. Once promising candidates have dropped out (Kamala Harris, Corey Booker). Former South Bend, Ind., Mayor Pete Buttigieg and Sen. Elizabeth Warren (D-Mass.) were not able to sustain their momentary polling jumps. For Buttigieg and Warren, their moment has passed — it is very rare that voters return to candidates they sampled and rejected. Too bad for Warren that newspaper endorsements are worthless. That leaves Joe and Bernie.

Make no mistake, Sanders is a tough out. His supporters are dedicated and won’t abandon him, even if he starts to lag. Sanders leads most polls in Iowa (but not all) and will certainly win New Hampshire.

But Sanders has two problems. First, Democratic voters view Biden as a stronger candidate against Donald Trump and put beating the president as their number one priority (69 percent to 31 percent). Democratic voters view Biden as a winner against Trump, with 65 percent thinking he can win to 13 percent who think he can’t, while Sanders only polls 52 percent to 26 percent. Both totals top the Democratic field.

Second, the Democrats’ nomination process has become much less favorable for Sanders by replacing caucuses with primaries. Sanders’ ability to string out the 2016 nomination contest was propped up by caucuses. He won 11 of 13 caucuses — he only lost Iowa (barely) and Nevada, which were very high turnout caucuses. After Nevada, caucus turnout fell significantly, leaving the process dominated by progressive activists — and thus benefiting Sanders.

[The Mouth]

1. Well, we'll find out for sure

won't we?

[Tiggeroshii]

2. Yeah.

But also No. And...


Maybe.

Who the hell knows?

[Demsrule86]

4. Voting starts soon ...very excited. I love elections.

[Tiggeroshii]

10. Me too!

Already getting the actual popcorn and liquor ready for Iowa.

[Demsrule86]

11. My fav is either Gin and Tonic or Cape Cods. I love popcorn...any kind.

I am jumping up and down too.

[Demsrule86]

3. One thing not mentioned here is Sanders failure to make inroads with the AA vote.

I think this also hurts him. he will likely lose the south by double digits.

[ritapria]

9. Morning Consult

Places Biden at 41% Bernie 25 % ... Amongst African-Americans nationwide … That constitutes some progress ..If Bernie wins the first three states , that gap will narrow down to the mid to upper single digits …..SC won't be the blowout that current polling shows ..It all depends on Bernie winning the first three contests …. It is simple as that ...

[Demsrule86]

12. There is new poll out ...posted on DU that shows it as less than that...and I think that

number is not good for him... I don't think anyone will be ahead with the first three... kind of a tie. But we shall see...super Tuesday will tell the tale.

[wiley]

5. How many caucasus were replaced with Primaries?

Caucasus discriminate against the mobility impaired, people caring for elderly or young family members, and those that work multiple jobs. They are a blatantly discriminatory process.

[Tiggeroshii]

6. Quite a few, but I don't know the exact number.

We've switched to more open primaries too. I was surprised to find out that California is now an open primary, unlike last time.

[wiley]

19. From 14 to 3. Bad news for Bernie

Unless he greatly widens his base. Good news for Vice President Biden and other Democrats. If we still have a democracy after today that is.

[Democrats_win]

7. Voting for Biden is almost a big FU to Trump and Joni Ernst

It's no way to run things. The article downplays Warren who is just an excellent candidate--probably better than Sanders and Biden?

As I see it, Warren is closer to a slam dunk candidate, along with...gulp....Bloomberg.

[Gothmog]

8. Trump is scared of Joe

[redstatebluegirl]

13. Trump is terrified of Joe. So are all of the GOP.

[The Valley Below]

14. Yes. Of course. I expect that will be the case.

[Scurrilous]

15. Steamrolls...

[DanTex]

16. Hmm. Keith Naughton is a prominent Republican political consultant.

Keith Naughton is a prominent Republican political consultant. He is best known for his work on statewide judicial campaigns.[1]

He worked as campaign manager for Bruce Castor during the early stages of his campaign for Pennsylvania Attorney General.[2] After Castor began attacking Pennsylvania Republican National Committee Robert B. Asher, Naughton stepped down.[3]

He is recognized as "one of the most highly-successful operatives in Pennsylvania."[1] In 2003, he managed the Susan Gantman's campaign for Pennsylvania Superior Court, the only statewide Republican victory that year.[4] He also managed both statewide judicial campaigns for J. Michael Eakin.[1][5]

He was named to the PoliticsPA list of "Republican Dream Team" political consultants.[1] He was named to the PoliticsPA list of "Pennsylvania's Top Operatives."[5] He was named runner-up "Operative of the Year" in 2003 by PoliticsPA.[4]

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Keith_Naughton

[Cha]

17. Joe Biden for President!

[oasis]

18. I'll gladly second that motion.

Full Steam Ahead, Cha.