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Joe BidenCongratulations to our presumptive Democratic nominee, Joe Biden!

Thu Jan 30, 2020, 09:17 PM

 

Data Reveals A Moderate Democrat Is The Best Chance To Beat Trump




The Economist crunched data from various studies and found that a moderate would be the party’s best chance to defeat Donald Trump in November.

Via The Economist:

This research suggests, then, that Mr Biden could perform better than his competitors against Mr Trump. He is more moderate than Mr Sanders, so both more likely to attract swing voters and less likely to motivate Republicans to vote against him. His strength with both black and racially conservative white voters could make a big difference in swing states. Recent polling from the New York Times and Siena College suggests that 6% of the electorate would vote for Mr Biden—but not for Elizabeth Warren—against Mr Trump.

His advantage is evident in polls. According to The Economist’s analysis of publicly released polling data, Mr Biden performs better against Mr Trump than his competitors, nationwide and in swing states. Although polls of the general election conducted this early before a contest are not perfect, they are still helpful.

Mr Biden is not faultless. He is uninspiring on the stump and in debates. His Washington ties may inspire resentment from voters skeptical of elites. His candidacy would also represent a safety-first strategy for the Democrats at a time when many in the party desperately want to push a much more progressive economic, racial and social agenda. Yet for all that he still appears to be the Democrats’ best option in a contest against Mr Trump.

Trump is attacking Biden because he is the Democrat who poses the biggest threat
Joe Biden is the example used in the article, but the same principle applies to all of the moderate Democrat. Trump is extreme. The formula for beating a political extremist isn’t to navigate to the opposite extreme.

Trump has abandoned the political middle, and it would be a foolish mistake for Democrats to believe that they could nominate any of their candidates and beat Trump. If Trump runs against someone on the far left, he will wrap himself in patriotism, and paint his opponent as the extremist.

Election Day turnout will be smaller because people in the middle will stay home instead of choosing between a candidate on the right, and a candidate on the left. A base election helps Trump and the Republican Party.

A moderate can beat Trump with a promise to end the crazy and bring the presidency and the nation back to normal. Beating an incumbent president is difficult, but according to the research, a moderate gives Democrats their best chance to win in 2020.
If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for:
Joe Biden

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Arrow 11 replies Author Time Post
Reply Data Reveals A Moderate Democrat Is The Best Chance To Beat Trump (Original post)
Gothmog Jan 2020 OP
Cha Jan 2020 #1
highplainsdem Jan 2020 #2
Kurt V. Jan 2020 #3
TwilightZone Jan 2020 #8
Gothmog Jan 2020 #9
Gothmog Jan 2020 #4
TexasTowelie Jan 2020 #5
Gothmog Jan 2020 #6
Vogon_Glory Jan 2020 #7
NurseJackie Jan 2020 #10
SMC22307 Jan 2020 #11

Response to Gothmog (Original post)

Thu Jan 30, 2020, 09:18 PM

1. Damn Straight.

 

If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for:
Joe Biden

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Response to Gothmog (Original post)

Thu Jan 30, 2020, 09:20 PM

2. K&R!

 

If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for:
Joe Biden

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Response to Gothmog (Original post)

Thu Jan 30, 2020, 09:22 PM

3. simply not true. data suggest any dem candidate outside a real disrupter will win.

 

even then that candidate has nearly than a 50% probability
If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for:
Undecided

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Response to Kurt V. (Reply #3)

Thu Jan 30, 2020, 10:32 PM

8. Not really.

 

National polls are meaningless. The only analyses that would be applicable are ones that take the electoral college into consideration and determine whether or not the various candidates can win in the few states that will matter in November.

Head-to-head polls on a national level tell us next to nothing.

As the article notes:

"According to The Economist’s analysis of publicly released polling data, Mr Biden performs better against Mr Trump than his competitors, nationwide and in swing states."

All other things being equal (Trump winning red states, all our candidates winning blue ones, etc.), the bolded part is all that matters.
If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for:
Joe Biden

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Response to Kurt V. (Reply #3)

Thu Jan 30, 2020, 10:59 PM

9. You are wrong

 

If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for:
Joe Biden

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Response to Gothmog (Original post)

Thu Jan 30, 2020, 09:37 PM

4. I agree with the Economist

 


If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for:
Joe Biden

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Response to Gothmog (Original post)

Thu Jan 30, 2020, 09:38 PM

5. K&R! nt

 

If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for:
Joe Biden

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Response to Gothmog (Original post)

Thu Jan 30, 2020, 09:53 PM

6. The data clearly show Biden is most "electable."

 


If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for:
Joe Biden

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Response to Gothmog (Original post)

Thu Jan 30, 2020, 10:15 PM

7. Biden for President! Up to this week I was Undecided

 

And to be truthful, I’d have been agreeable to seeing Elizabeth “Red Earth Daughter” Warren sworn in as President of the United States next January. I still kinda wish she could pull it off, but I don’t think she’d be able to,

But after watching the disgraceful, unpatriotic behavior of the Republicans in the US Senate, I have come to the conclusion that we Democrats have NO margin for error. We MUST have a win, and despite my issues with Joe, I think he has a far better chance for beating Orange Julius than the current favorite of the young and most-likely-to-flake-out-when-it-counts segment of the Democratic voting coalition.
If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for:
Joe Biden

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Response to Gothmog (Original post)

Thu Jan 30, 2020, 11:01 PM

10. There's a good reason that kooky fringe candidates don't do well...

 

... like Jill Stein for example.
If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for:
Joe Biden

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Response to Gothmog (Original post)

Thu Jan 30, 2020, 11:04 PM

11. "Data" revealed Hillary was going to beat Trump.

 

How'd that turn out?
If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for:
Undecided

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