Democratic Primaries

George II

(67,782 posts) Sat Feb 1, 2020, 10:45 AM Feb 2020

Projects.fivethirtyeight delegate projection as of Feb. 1:

Biden 1741 - needs only 249 more for the nomination
Sanders 1274 (-467)
Warren 453 (-1288)
BUttigieg 297 (-1444)
Bloomberg 131 (-1610)

Note: candidates below 300 pledged delegates cannot have their names placed in nomination at the convention.

If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden

5 replies

= new reply since forum marked as read

Highlight:

Projects.fivethirtyeight delegate projection as of Feb. 1: (Original Post) George II Feb 2020 OP

KR Cha Feb 2020 #1

When did the voting take place ? ritapria Feb 2020 #2

LOL. BlueWI Feb 2020 #3

K&R! highplainsdem Feb 2020 #4

Misleading. Biden's odds remain unchanged at 45% denem Feb 2020 #5

Cha

(296,778 posts)

1. KR

Reply to George II (Original post)

Sat Feb 1, 2020, 10:47 AM

Feb 2020

If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden

ritapria

(1,812 posts)

2. When did the voting take place ?

Reply to George II (Original post)

Sat Feb 1, 2020, 10:48 AM

Feb 2020

I feel like Rip Van Winkle ..What happened ?

If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for: Undecided

BlueWI

(1,736 posts)

3. LOL.

Reply to ritapria (Reply #2)

Sat Feb 1, 2020, 10:50 AM

Feb 2020

If polling and analytics were votes, there wouldn't be a President Trump.

The real work - organizing and building a winning campaign, isn't what 538 does. We all have to do that!

If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for: Undecided

highplainsdem

(48,892 posts)

4. K&R!

Reply to George II (Original post)

Sat Feb 1, 2020, 10:51 AM

Feb 2020

If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden

denem

(11,045 posts)

5. Misleading. Biden's odds remain unchanged at 45%

Reply to George II (Original post)

Sat Feb 1, 2020, 10:54 AM

Feb 2020

Less than 1 in 2.

The reason is quite clear. According to 538's model (but not reality IMO) a second place or worse in Iowa will considerably diminish Biden's chances.

For all those who suggest Iowa does not really matter, 538 disagrees. strongly. A win would put Biden odds on (80%) to win.

If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden

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