The Iowa Expectation Game

[bluewater]

Tell us what place the candidates must finish in the Iowa Caucus to meet expectations. Also, what finish would be particularly disappointing or invigorating.

Here are mine:

Biden: I expect him to finish 3rd. A 5th place finish would be a major disappointment. Winning would be a major plus.

Sanders: Is expected to finish 1st. Anything lower would be an increasing disappointment for his campaign.

Warren: Is expected to finish 3rd. A 2nd place finish would be a major plus, finishing 4th would be damaging.

Buttigieg: I expect him to finish 2nd. Anything lower would be deflating to his campaign. 4th place would be
curtains.

Kloubuchar: I predict a surprise 4th place finish. Finishing 3rd would skyrocket her chances.

Yang: I predict a 6th place finish. If he can win a few district level delegates, that would be a major win and qualify him for the next debate.

[scheming daemons]

1. You expect Biden and Warren to both finish 3rd?

Is one of those a typo?

[bluewater]

2. No just poor wording.

Either finishing 3rd would be meeting expectations in my mind.

I will edit that to be more clear.

[scheming daemons]

3. What I expect vs what I want

What I expect:

1. Biden
2. Sanders
3. Buttigieg
4. Warren
5. Klobuchar
6. Yang


What i want:

1. Klobuchar
2. Biden
3. Buttigieg
4. Warren
5 Sanders
6. Yang

[bluewater]

5. Biden will not be winning Iowa.

There are fears he might actually finish 5th. Amy Klobuchar has a strong shot to come in a surprise 4th.

[judeling]

4. Yes

But with three different numbers reported multiple narratives are possible. Especially if the first round and second round are vastly different,
Also who finishes in front of the candidate will be important.

Biden needs at least a second. But if it is to anyone but Sanders it will hurt him.

Buttigieg needs at least a third, but if he finishes behind either Warren or Klobuchar he will be damaged. If he finishes above Biden he could see a bump.

Klobuchar needs to be Close. But finishing ahead of anyone of the four helps. The higher the finish the bigger the win.

Sanders needs at least a second. But not to Warren. However if he wins the first count that will still be spun as a win.

Warren needs at least a third. But finishing ahead of Klobuchar essential. Finishing ahead of Buttigieg would be nice also. But if she can beat Biden or Sanders at any point it would be huge.

I have absolutely no Idea. I think Sanders will finish first in the first count but after that I just do not know. Ask me tomorrow.