Biden Hopes for Strong Finish But Warns of Long Primary Fight

[left-of-center2012]

Joe Biden’s campaign suggested Friday it expects a protracted fight for the Democratic nomination as the race for the state’s first-in-the-nation caucuses entered its final weekend.

Muddied or close results in the first few contests paired with multiple candidates who have signaled plans to stay in the race indefinitely drag the nominating contest deep into the year, and Biden’s camp argued Friday that it’s ready for the fight.

“The VP remains in a strong position to perform well in the first four states and on Super Tuesday, but we’re also planning for an extended process into the summer,” campaign manager Greg Schultz said in a memo to Biden supporters, hinting that the campaign expects Bernie Sanders will stay in the race at least until the end of the primary calendar, even if he doesn’t have a delegate advantage.

“Monday’s contest begins the process, it doesn’t end it,” Schultz said. “And, it’s a process we are fully prepared and well-positioned to win.” After falling behind top opponents in raising money, January has been Biden’s “strongest month of fund raising since launch,” he said, with much of the growth coming online.

While Schultz’s memo could be interpreted as an effort to lower expectations ahead of an uncertain showing on Monday, so he could tout the results if Biden does reasonably well, it could also be seen as an effort to head off panic among Biden’s supporters should he perform poorly.

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2020-02-01/biden-hopes-for-strong-finish-but-warns-of-long-primary-fight?srnd=politics-vp

[InAbLuEsTaTe]

1. I like that line about "an effort to head off panic" coming from bloomberg.com... oh the irony!!

Bernie/Elizabeth or Elizabeth/Bernie 2020!!
Either way, they're stronger together & can't be bought!!
Jump on the Bernie Bandwagon & join The Revolution!!

[Thekaspervote]

2. It may be a long fight. In the end out of 57 states and territories sanders wins 16 Biden 41

He’s gonna do just fine!!

[empedocles]

3. Never underestimate the ability of some Dems to, 'snatch defeat from the

jaws of victory' - quote attributed to A. Lincoln

[Sloumeau]

4. The quote apparently originally comes from around Lincoln's time, but from another person:

[link:https://www.nytimes.com/2006/01/01/magazine/cliches-for-06.html|]

But hold on -- here comes Fred Shapiro, editor of the forthcoming Yale Dictionary of Quotations, with an even earlier citation. A newspaper titled The National Era quoted a speech made on Feb. 21, 1850, by Representative William Bissell of Illinois, who chided another congressman, James Seddon of Virginia, for saying that a Mississippi regiment at the 1847 battle of Buena Vista in the Mexican-American war had "snatched victory from the jaws of defeat." Bissell disputed this claim, attributing the snatching (not plucking) of victory (not defeat) to Northern regiments.

[empedocles]

5. Thank you. I enjoy learning of how, and how long, some quotes have

been around. 'Cut one's nose off to spite the face' has been attributed to the 13th Century. So many quotes go back to Roman times.

You probably know, though other readers here may not know, that Lincoln did make that quote in reference to General Burnside.

[bluewater]

6. Biden Campaign lowering expectations?

[MineralMan]

7. More likely to appear not to be a lock for the nomination

You have to watch out for the underdog bias thing.

It's not good to act like you think you have everything sewn up.

[bluewater]

8. Oh, Joe definitely does not have Iowa sewn up.

Biden is in danger of finishing 5th in Iowa as Klobuchar is closing strong. That would be disastrous for his campaign.

In any case, we will find out soon enough. lol

[MineralMan]

9. You keep saying that. Perhaps that will do the trick for you.

Iowa's delegates will be divided up, losing all impact on the Convention. It doesn't matter. It never did.

Biden isn't talking about Iowa. He's looking ahead.

[bluewater]

10. You keep saying Iowa doesn't matter. Perhaps that will do the trick for you.

A poor showing in Iowa would damage Biden going forward.

Perception is reality. If the electability bubble bursts, the Biden Campaign falters.

People keep down playing expectations for Joe in Iowa, trying to cushion the impact of a poor showing there.

[MineralMan]

11. War is peace.

Perception is not reality. Reality is reality.

Slogans aren't accurate predictors.

Iowa is a toss-up. Nobody really knows how the caucuses will turn out. Anyone who pretends to is just guessing like everyone else.

The cool thing is that we'll know on Tuesday. Some people will be surprised, but I don't know which people.

In any case, no candidate will actually "win" Iowa. Everyone who matters will get some delegates, and then we move on to the next thing.

Could Joe Biden come in in first place? Absolutely. Any of the leading candidates might. There's no way to predict. We'll see.

Does Iowa matter? No, not really, unless you're one of the non-viable candidates. Then it matters. You're finished if that is the case.

[bluewater]

13. Iowa is double-plus ungood

"Does Iowa matter? No, not really"

Again, this just comes across as trying to cushion a poor showing for Joe Biden in Iowa.

[Skya Rhen]

12. After Iowa and NH, AAs will be up next to have their say and it will be loud and clear.

[Sloumeau]

14. fivethirtyeight.com has Bernie first in Iowa and Biden 2nd at half a percentage point back.

I have no idea where you are getting "finishing 5th" from.

In addition, even if Biden did finish 5th, it would mean little. Biden is super strong in the South, and odds are Bernie will not win any of the 11 states with closed Primaries. He lost all of them to Hillary in 2016 because an important part of Sanders' voting block comes from non Democrats. Bernie has a real uphill battle this year.

[bluewater]

15. It's all about the ground game.

It's a caucus not a primary.

Biden has the weakest ground game of the top 5 candidates in Iowa.

And, if Biden does finish 5th in Iowa it will definitely matter, it's just wishful thinking on the part of his supporters to think otherwise.