KING 5 News poll: Sanders top pick in Washington Democratic primary

[Uncle Joe]

(snip)

An exclusive KING 5 News poll found 26% of likely Democratic voters in Washington would cast their vote for Sanders followed by 21% for Joe Biden. Elizabeth Warren would garner 16% of the vote, and Mike Bloomberg would receive 12%.

However, it could be a different story by the actual primary on March 10. Of those likely Democratic voters, 64% said they might change their mind. And women are more likely to be on the fence than men: 71% of women said they might change their mind compared to 55% of men.

Sanders was one of the most popular candidates among voters of color. He could earn support from 35% of black voters and 44% of Asian voters, according to the poll. Hispanic voters were split between Bloomberg (27%) and Sanders (24%).

"What really surprised me was the depth of the support, not only among liberals that are white supporting Bernie Sanders, but the Asian American community and the African American community," said Ron Sims, KING 5 News political analyst.

(snip)

https://www.king5.com/article/news/politics/elections/bernie-sanders-democratic-primary-poll/281-54303297-ce1b-4902-9e51-512a441340ac

[pnwmom]

1. There are so many problems with this poll I hardly know where to start.

Last edited Sat Feb 1, 2020, 05:07 PM - Edit history (4)

This was an online poll among people who said they were registered to vote, not telephone interviews of people drawn from voter registration lists. They don't explain how they got a representative sample or what their probability error is.

Of the 536 likely voters, they don't explain how the sample breaks down into subgroups. For example, they don't say how many African American voters were included. (But they do say the number is too small to give a meaningful result on the issue of Democratic vs. Republican. That means that the the 35% of the Democrats who are African American and chose Bernie are a subsample of a group too small to report as a Democrat!)

If they happened to include a proportionate number of black people as in the larger state population, that would be 4% of the sample of 536. That would be about 21 people divided among the various candidates. The 35% would be about 7 African American people somewhere in the state. Do you see how silly it is to say that ANY candidate has stronger support than anyone else in a sample that size?


ON EDIT: Also, one of the questions is pretty bizarre for a survey conducted in Washington. It asks the respondent, "are you certain to request a Republican ballot? Are you certain to request a Democratic ballot?"

But there is only ONE ballot in WA, which is mailed to homes. No one requests anything.

[Thekaspervote]

2. Thank you for the great explanation..always good to know

[pnwmom]

5. I just added more. It's even worse than I originally thought. nt

[DarthDem]

3. Yeah, Right

In reading the post describing the poll I knew something was off when we got to how popular Sen. Sanders allegedly is with black voters.

Sure enough, it's an online, self-select, riggable poll.

[Scurrilous]

7. Hilarious.

"Sanders was one of the most popular candidates among voters of color. He could earn support from 35% of black voters..."

That's about 20 points higher than he' s polling nationally.

"In the crowded Democratic field, Biden has 44 percent support — 29 percentage points higher than Sen, Bernie Sanders, who comes in second among African American likely primary voters, according to the survey for the BlackPAC political action committee." - Politico

Never the less...Sanders Surging Poll Rising!

[pnwmom]

8. As I explained in the other post, WA only has 4% black voters. In a sample of 536 likely Dem voters,

that means about 21 of them were black (if even that many). That means the 35% Bernie supporters were about 7 African Americans somewhere in the state.

No reputable pollster would claim that these are meaningful numbers to use for any purpose except hype.

[Scurrilous]

9. Thanks.

I hate crappy polls and inaccurate poll info.

[MFM008]

4. Not to me

[pnwmom]

6. It's a junk poll. n/t