Democratic Primaries

nitpicker

(7,153 posts) Sat Feb 1, 2020, 04:19 PM Feb 2020

I have NO idea about the Iowa caucuses

But my SWAG:

The top four candidates should somehow, somewhere, pick up delegates.

But who the "winner" will be is unknown (at least to me).

Per RCP averages, the Sanders/Warren wing is polling 38.4%, the Biden/Buttegieg wing 36.0%, and Klobuchar 9.6%.

I don't think Iowa will settle anything between Biden, Sanders and Warren.

Why?

Polls suggest Sanders is currently leading in NH.

Biden has a narrow lead in NV and a huge lead in SC.

Sanders appears to be gaining in CA.

TX is currently for Biden, while Warren is leading in MA.

Of course, all this could change back and forth before the votes.

If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for: Undecided

3 replies

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I have NO idea about the Iowa caucuses (Original Post) nitpicker Feb 2020 OP

Almost all of my friends, here in CA *LOVE* Bernie The Mouth Feb 2020 #1

I'm in northern California too. It'll be interesting to see where things land here. David__77 Feb 2020 #2

Sanders should be worried about the mock caucus results at a couple of colleges. Blue_true Feb 2020 #3

The Mouth

(3,150 posts)

1. Almost all of my friends, here in CA *LOVE* Bernie

Reply to nitpicker (Original post)

Sat Feb 1, 2020, 04:22 PM

Feb 2020

They might vote Joe out of electability concerns, but in terms of passion, the Bernie supporters I know will be skipping lunches for gas money to drive people to the polls, and walking and calling. I'm in Northern California FWIW.

If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for: Undecided

David__77

(23,390 posts)

2. I'm in northern California too. It'll be interesting to see where things land here.

Reply to The Mouth (Reply #1)

Sat Feb 1, 2020, 05:50 PM

Feb 2020

...

If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for: Undecided

Blue_true

(31,261 posts)

3. Sanders should be worried about the mock caucus results at a couple of colleges.

Reply to nitpicker (Original post)

Sat Feb 1, 2020, 06:50 PM

Feb 2020

That could indicate that Warren is a lot stronger among that group than Sanders. I believe that due to recent issues, young women may be swinging toward Warren. If the undecideds in Iowa have increased in the last two weeks, Bernie should be really worried, because that likely indicate support that has moved from him and is looking for a candidate (that benefits Warren mostly).

If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden

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