Oh NO! South Carolina slipping away from Joe!

[bluewater]

Link to tweet

Seems that South Carolina "firewall" the Biden Campaign was counting on is starting to crumble, doesn't it?

[CentralMass]

1. K&R

[InAbLuEsTaTe]

39. Uh ohhhh!! Alert! Alert! Calling billionaire Bloomberg to buy a Biden backup bailout plan...

please pick up the white courtesy phone.


Bernie/Elizabeth or Elizabeth/Bernie 2020!!
Either way, they're stronger together & can't be bought!!
Jump on the Bernie Bandwagon & join The Revolution!!

[CentralMass]

44. :-)

[CurtEastPoint]

2. Will you all support the Democratic nominee regardless of who it is?

[bluewater]

3. Will Biden Supporters support Sanders if he is the nominee?

Vote Blue, no matter who.

[RazBerryBeret]

10. that is the big question, right?

interesting about Tom Steyer tho... I took one of those "quizzes" last night to see which candidate I am most aligned with on issues. Steyer came in at #3 and I didn't expect that.

[InAbLuEsTaTe]

65. It sure is... I do wonder sometimes. But Im stayin positive that they'll eventually come around.

Bernie/Elizabeth or Elizabeth/Bernie 2020!!
Either way, they're stronger together & can't be bought!!
Jump on the Bernie Bandwagon & join The Revolution!!

[UniteFightBack]

16. Bloomburg is the safety valve. nt

[themaguffin]

24. Recent polling shows that Biden supports agree to at the highest %.

[bluewater]

30. Actually, Warren Supporters were most loyal to any Democratic Ticket.

Call it wishful thinking, but I still hope that Warren emerges as a consensus candidate to unite the party.

If she does well tomorrow in Iowa, that could be a big first step to seeing that happen.

[saidsimplesimon]

51. An exciting primary, Iowa

could be a photo finish, or one candidate blows the others away. Looks like the polls have it down to a Biden/Sanders race.

I'm with Senator Warren. The people of Iowa will caucus next week, may the best candidate win That would be Senator Elizabeth Warren.

[themaguffin]

73. I think that she is still in this. This could play out so many ways, but she is well positioned for

certain scenarios.

[Codeine]

40. Of course we will.

We aren’t the ones who constantly threaten to take our ball and leave.

[MrsCoffee]

42. Biden doesn't surround himself with Jill Stein voters and people who trash the Democratic Party.

Questioning his suuporter’s loyalty to party is probably not a road you want to go down here....

[InAbLuEsTaTe]

43. That's the REAL question, since Bernie's OBVIOUSLY gonna be the Democratic nominee.

As I predicted, the South Carolina "fire wall" is burning to the ground. Feel the Bern baby and say "hello" to President Sanders!!


Bernie/Elizabeth or Elizabeth/Bernie 2020!!
Either way, they're stronger together & can't be bought!!
Jump on the Bernie Bandwagon & join The Revolution!!

[ehrnst]

46. Lol.

South Carolina Democrats: Better if Sanders ‘got lost’

“Even back then, most Democrats were not on board with what he was pitching,” Quirk-Garvan said of Sanders’ primary campaign. “For many, even people who backed Sen. Sanders in the primary, they’re looking for some new ideas.”

In that vein, Brown suggested, people attracted to Sanders’ ideas should support traditional Democratic platform planks, like Medicaid expansion and an overall fight for better wages.

“If he comes to South Carolina, he’ll have his 15 people will show up,” Brown said. “I hope it’s worth it to him, because he’s doing greater damage to the party overall.”

[dware]

47. ............

Maybe here he'll be President:



But certainly not these United States of America.

[Joinfortmill]

53. More than the other way around.

[lark]

59. A huge percentage of Biden voters wil vote for the D no matter who, same can't be said for a large %

of Bernie supporters, including those he picked for the very top of his campaign. Wonder why, if loyalty means anything at all to him?

[CentralMass]

23. I certainly will.

[Kentonio]

4. Wow, if SC really is in play, then that's a game changer.

[bluewater]

6. And the Iowa, New Hampshire and Nevada contests haven't even happened yet.

Imagine the impact if Biden under performs in those.

[thesquanderer]

32. re: "Imagine the impact if Biden under performs in those."

I'm not saying it's likely, but if Biden is not in first or second place in the delegate count after South Carolina, I think that would make it difficult for him to continue. There have already been hints that poor early showings for Biden could lead to a cash crunch. And if he doesn't go into Super Tuesday in a position of some strength, Bloomberg (who isn't really competing until then) becomes that much bigger a factor.

[Loki Liesmith]

7. It's not.

[bluewater]

9. It could very well be.

Time will tell.

But this is a major change from a well respected SC poll.

[InAbLuEsTaTe]

45. It's over for Joe, before it even began, like his 2 previous primary race losses in 1988 & 2008.

Bernie/Elizabeth or Elizabeth/Bernie 2020!!
Either way, they're stronger together & can't be bought!!
Jump on the Bernie Bandwagon & join The Revolution!!

[highplainsdem]

56. It isn't. See reply 55. This and the previous Change Research poll done for that paper have been

outliers, way off the results of other, higher-rated SC polls.

[HeartlandProgressive]

67. .

[Cha]

74. Backatcha.

[Loki Liesmith]

5. Average your polls please

Please try and understand sampling error.

[bluewater]

8. The polls are what the polls are.

And, usually, the closer they are to the actual election, the more accurate they get.

[Loki Liesmith]

11. Average your polls please.

[bluewater]

14. People can ignore changes in the polling landscpae at their own peril.

The closer to the election, the more accurate polling becomes.

This was a major change from a well respected SC poll.

Is it indicative of an emerging trend? Time will tell. And very soon.

But it does seem South Carolina Democratic voters are starting to give serious consideration to other candidates than Joe Biden.

Steyer's, dare I call it, "surge" in this poll just cannot be brushed aside.

[highplainsdem]

58. See reply 55. This poll was an outlier in December,s too. And their new poll results are close to

their December results.

[HeartlandProgressive]

66. .

[InAbLuEsTaTe]

50. Still in the denial stage.

Bernie/Elizabeth or Elizabeth/Bernie 2020!!
Either way, they're stronger together & can't be bought!!
Jump on the Bernie Bandwagon & join The Revolution!!

[Sugarcoated]

79. Whoa.

And you wonder why Bernie supporters have the bad rep...fucking juvenile.

[denem]

12. cf their December poll Biden (-2). Sanders (-), Steyer (+13), Warren (-8)

Change research has come up with some pretty wacky polls this cycle.

[DeterDeter]

13. I could buy it getting closer

But the Change Research polls have come up with wildly different results when compared to the others so far this cycle, I would have to see another one before I could believe it as a trend.

[denem]

15. I updated my reply for the trend.

[DeterDeter]

18. polls from other outfits I mean

[denem]

22. Fox News Biden +21, January 9.

Most recent: GQR Reserach (C+) January 28

Biden 44%, Sanders 15% Steyer 12%, Warren 10%.

[Hortensis]

17. Lol for the "oh no." But then I remembered how much

we all have to lose. No one should be cheered by what raises Trump's hopes and those of his fascistic followers.

And yes, btw, if fascist takeover was the alternative, I would vote for Sanders. But I'd be scared and very, very worried. His plans, whatever they are, have him expecting he'd have to overcome the resistance of congress, including Democrats, to make them happen. He's often said so. That's not normal, and a president can accomplish nothing without support in congress.

You might ask yourself what would Sanders do if he inherited a badly destabilized federal government and he had a Republican-controlled congress to work with? The Repubs are expected to keep the senate and could regain control of the house.

Sanders' lifetime socialist dreams would require a ruthless dismantling of many of our current systems, already well along.

The Republicans' plan to replace democracy with a hierarchical autocracy require the ruthless dismantling of our current systems they're already well along with.

President Sanders and Republican majorities would often have common ground and, as Sanders himself says often, an opponent in congressional Democrats. You really should be wondering if they would unite against the Democrats who are fighting to protect the America we inherited. Because despite Sanders' collectivist, egalitarian dreams and his conviction that the people would rise in a giant wave to make it happen, everyone else knows the fascists would win.

[bluewater]

20. People should start accepting the possibility Joe Biden might not be the nominee.

Fortunately, we have several strong candidates who all can defeat Trump.

Vote Blue, no matter who.

[Hortensis]

25. But FIRST consider the consequences of each choice.

The statements of many of Sanders' big-mouthed supporters make it clear they believe conservative, antiprogressive destruction of the Democratic Party/our government as we know it is the first, necessary step to their victory.

That's just plain crazy-deluded. Fascism or another form of authoritarian dictatorship is behind Door #3, not a glorious new Democratic Socialist world where no one goes without a job. Though some authoritarian states do wear socialist labels and make a pretense of it, political prisons and death for those who agitate for more than a pretense are not exactly what a lot of Sanders' supporters have in mind.

And Sanders? What do you imagine Sanders, who couldn't give socialism away in America in over 50 years of trying, thinks? That giant wave of support from the people who'll sweep all opposition to his goals away. He's a true believer in himself who's willing gamble that the extremist waves being grown on both sides won't sweep democracy away instead.

[The Velveteen Ocelot]

36. Thank you for pointing this out.

There's a thing called the "dictatorship of the proletariat" in socialist philosophy. That's supposed to be a good thing, but it imagines the complete breakup and overhaul of the existing structure. Is that what we - all of us - as a society, really want? When you force people into a system not of their choosing, that's authoritarianism, regardless of which end of the ideological spectrum it's arising from. The dictatorship of the proletariat is still a dictatorship.

[TheFarseer]

37. So

Sanders supporters are conservative but support Communist prison labor camps? Now I’ve heard it all.

[Docreed2003]

63. I think you bring up some excellent points

My biggest concern is that there are certain forces, and I want to be clear I AM NOT including Sanders in this, that are working to undermine the Democratic Party at a time when it should be completely united precisely because a unified Democratic Party stands in the way of implementing their conservative, authoritarian goals.

[George II]

19. "Cutting significantly into" his lead? The last Post and Courier had Biden over Sanders 27-20.....

....so that "significant" change is that Sanders remained exactly where he was and Biden dropped by 2%. That's hardly slipping away, and this poll has always had Biden lower than other polls.

If anything Steyer is cutting significantly into Sanders' 2nd place position, going from 5% to 18%.

[bluewater]

26. Souh Carolina seems to like several older white male candidates. lol

Steyer's "surge" is noteworthy.

It seems South Carolina Democratic voters are giving serious consideration to several candidates, not just Joe Biden.

[redstateblues]

61. Ah Yes- The demise of Biden's campaign again. How many times has that been declared by

BS and Warren supporters and by the MSM.

[bluewater]

71. More like the Biden Campaign that never really took off...

Joe is down to just 27.2% support and a 3.7% lead at RCP Polls today.

https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2020/president/us/2020_democratic_presidential_nomination-6730.html

His campaign just has stayed flat, leaving it vulnerable as actual voting begins.

Biden remains a very very fragile frontrunner, for now. Tomorrow he might actually be trailing in real delegates.



The polls are what the polls are.

[redstateblues]

72. Like the old bumper sticker "I might be slow but I'm ahead of you"

[Faux pas]

21. Oh noes!

[book_worm]

27. Until the next poll comes out showing Biden still strong there

[bluewater]

29. Fortunately, real voting in SC will occur soon.

That is the ultimate poll.

[highplainsdem]

57. See replies 54 and 55. This poll's an outlier, as it was in December.

[HeartlandProgressive]

68. .

[Autumn]

28. My two favorite guys! They would make one hell of a team.

[Thekaspervote]

31. RCP avg SC Biden 32 Sanders 15 538 poll avg SC chances of winning Biden 63 sanders 26

538 chances of winning the nomination
Biden 1 in 2
Sanders 3 in 10

538: Predicted pledged delegates so far
Biden 1718
Sanders 1284

Still wanna stir?

[bluewater]

33. "RCP has a dirty secret! It's poll aggregate now falls under scrutiny"

Hmmm... this is what you posted about RCP when the results were not so good for Biden:

"RealClearPolitics has carefully cultivated a non-partisan image—while in the shadows its parent company pushes images of killer Clintons and a freedom-loving Kremlin.

More at the link... if you want

https://www.thedailybeast.com/realclear-media-has-a-secret-facebook-page-filled-with-far-right-memes "

Here's the link to THAT post:
https://www.democraticunderground.com/?com=view_post&forum=1287&pid=308362

So, the seriousness of RCP's parent company pushing "images of killer Clintons and a freedom-loving Kremlin" is not an issue when Joe is doing well on RCP?

In any case, polls get more accurate the closer they are to the actual election.

The Steyer "surge" in SC simply cannot be brushed aside by looking at old polls.

[Fiendish Thingy]

34. Wow. Inevitability narrative crumbling in 3,2,1... nt

[highplainsdem]

60. Not when the poll's been an outlier for months. See replies 54 and 55.

[HeartlandProgressive]

69. .

[OliverQ]

35. We can attribute the Steyers increase due to

him spending an obscene amount of money there.

[Recursion]

38. If Sanders can win SC, most of the arguments against his candidacy go away

That would be yuuuge, as they say.

[scheming daemons]

41. Steyer at 18% won't hold

Those people will move back to Biden

[UniteFightBack]

64. +1000

[Dawgman49]

48. Steyer is flooding

Us with mail.. at least weekly during the last month, getting full color campaign flyers in the mail, one each for my wife & I...here in SC...getting annoying & wasteful

[ooky]

49. South Carolina is an open primary state.

Beware of the Trumper vote voting in our primaries.

[evertonfc]

52. uh oh

Trump campaign is toasting with champagne.

[highplainsdem]

54. C-rated Change Research poll. A-rated Fox News poll found Biden with a 21-point lead a couple of

weeks earlier.

[highplainsdem]

55. This poll's an outlier, like their previous SC poll, which had Biden with only a 7-point lead in

December, while two higher-rated polls had him with a 21-point to 32-point lead.

[HeartlandProgressive]

70. .

[Cha]

75. Is that all you got.. can't debate.

[InAbLuEsTaTe]

62. K&R!!

Bernie/Elizabeth or Elizabeth/Bernie 2020!!
Either way, they're stronger together & can't be bought!!
Jump on the Bernie Bandwagon & join The Revolution!!

[RandySF]

76. No

Link to tweet

?s=21

[Tiggeroshii]

77. Look how happy tom steyer is to be next to bernie

Bernie: "ok good. Thanks.."

[Tiggeroshii]

78. My prediction

If Bernie wins iowa, he wins the first 4 states. Assuming the negative ad barrage doesnt hurt him too much.

[TexasTowelie]

80. Bookmarking!

[Metodiko]

81. Good luck with your forecast

I will grade you on Saturday.

[bluewater]

82. A new DU-er goes back to a month old thread to "grade me" lol

Metodiko
81. Good luck with your forecast

I will grade you on Saturday.

Single digits in posts AND going back to a month old thread and then saying you will be grading me?



Sorry, but that's being just a tad, well, obvious.

buh bye.

Time to use the "ignore" feature.

*poof*