NEW Iowa @Civiqs/@DataProgress Poll: Sanders 28%, Warren 21%, Buttigieg 15%

[Donkees]

Link to tweet

[RandySF]

1. I get email poll questions from Civiqs every week.

[Polybius]

9. Why don't Biden voters ever admit to bad news?

It's ok to say "Sanders is doing better than I hoped" or "Biden isn't doing as well nationally as he was in December" or "We likely won't win Iowa."

I'm a Warren voter and I admit bad things. She's not in first place nationally and I thought she would be. Hope that changes by the NY primary but it doesn't look to be the case.

[RandySF]

14. I'll admit to bad news when I see a poll I respect

[Polybius]

21. I guess the only poll that matters in Iowa is tomorrow's

Good luck.

[HerbChestnut]

2. Changes from their previous poll:

Sanders: +4
Warren: +2
Buttigieg: -2
Biden: =
Klobuchar: -3

[Bumperstickers]

3. Warren looks like she may make a run at second

The battle for second place is fascinating.

[MineralMan]

4. Tomorrow, the caucuses will collect actual information from

actual caucus-goers. We'll know how that all turned out on Tuesday. That's the only poll that will have the accurate numbers.

Wait for it!

[RandySF]

5. Responses to this poll were collected online.

This report contains the results of a Civiqs survey of 655 likely Democratic Caucus attendees in Iowa from January 23-27, 2020. The survey was conducted online, among selected members of the Civiqs research panel. Sampled individuals were emailed by Civiqs and responded using a personalized link to the survey at civiqs.com.






https://civiqs.com/documents/Civiqs_ISU_banner_book_2020_01_cg3q62ypb43uz6bb.pdf

[Tiggeroshii]

6. Civic is not rated on538, but data for progress is b/c

So the poll might be worth something. If this is remotely accurate, we could be seeing some surprises!

[RandySF]

12. One poll analyzed.

[Tiggeroshii]

13. ?

[bluewater]

7. Sounds just like the Morning Consult Poll's methodology

And that poll is always favorable for Joe Biden.



The polls are what the polls are.

Fortunately, actual voting starts TOMORROW in Iowa!

It will be interesting to see which polls have been the most accurate.

[Zolorp]

11. Well, that will oversample younger voters.

Older people are too terrified of clicking links to things like polls.

[apcalc]

10. Ho hum. Online poll.

[bluewater]

15. Most polls are online these days.

Pollsters are searching for ways to adjust to the new world where people just don't answer their phones anymore for unsolicited calls.

Online "panel" polls is a remedy many pollsters are currently using.

What our transition to online polling means for decades of phone survey trends
By Courtney Kennedy and Claudia Deane

From the 1980s until relatively recently, most national polling organizations conducted surveys by telephone, relying on live interviewers to call randomly selected Americans across the country. Then came the internet.
It has taken survey researchers some time to adapt to the idea of online surveys, but a quick look at the public polls on an issue like presidential approval reveals a landscape now dominated by online polls rather than phone polls. Pew Research Center itself now conducts the majority of its U.S. polling online, primarily through its American Trends Panel.
The fact that many public opinion surveys today are conducted online is no secret to avid poll watchers. What is not well known, however, is what this migration to online polling means for the country’s trove of data documenting American public opinion over the past four decades, on issues ranging from abortion and immigration to race relations and military interventions. Specifically, can pollsters just add new online results to a long chain of phone survey results, or is this an apples-to-oranges situation that requires us to essentially throw out the historical data and start anew?

https://www.pewresearch.org/fact-tank/2019/02/27/what-our-transition-to-online-polling-means-for-decades-of-phone-survey-trends/

These legitimate attempts at online polling are a far cry from the clickity-click internet polls that allowed responders to repeatedly vote in a given survey.

It's worthwhile to realize the difference.

[Recursion]

16. I wish more people understood that. All that matters is the sample

There's nothing magically bad about the Internet or magically good about phone calls. A poll with a legitimate probability sample will be effective whether via a phone or a web browser.

[apcalc]

18. So far as I am concerned they are all skewed then.

I maintain a true representative sample cannot be obtained online only.

[HerbChestnut]

23. Honest question...

Do you have a background in statistics or statistical modeling?

[apcalc]

24. Yes, that is part of my mathematical learning and degree.

[Ace Rothstein]

22. A lot of posters here confuse these types of online polls with public ones.

You can't just keep voting in this type of online poll.

[Bumperstickers]

17. Land line polls are so outdated less then 43% of households had them in 2017

I think your gonna see the internet polling firms rule the day this election and the others will have to adjust in the future or go the way the dinosaurs.

[judeling]

19. This Markos's outfit

It is worth looking at for trends poll to poll.
We are about to see over the next weeks what the turnout models for all the polling out mean.

But there is definitely a house effect that needs to be taken into account.

[Uncle Joe]

20. Kicked and recommended.

Thanks for the thread Donkees.