EMERSON Iowa Democratic Caucus: 28% @BernieSanders (-2)

[Donkees]

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[Uncle Joe]

1. Kicked and recommended.

Thanks for the thread Donkees.

[Donkees]

2. ...

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[Donkees]

3. *

[judeling]

4. Everyone has something good in this poll.

Sanders has great toplines.
Biden has steady support and is in the possible error band of the win.
Buttigieg showed a bump.
Warren had an Uptick.
Klobuchar has solidified the non Sanders 2nd choice.

Buttigieg, Warren and Klobuchar are all in the same error band near 15%. So that is where most of the realignment will be.
Remember that at realignment all candidates still have a chance and even if not viable they can become so. Where the second choice support comes from is a huge difference. When the questions are normally framed the totals are reported. For much of the cycle that had Warren as the most popular second choice. But that was overstated is some ways as so much of it was coming from Sanders. That is important as Sanders will probably not help her much in the realignment.

They didn't break out the Biden and Sanders second choices in the narrative so looking back at several other polls we can extrapolate those,

Sanders second choice seems to be about 50% to Warren and 12% Biden.
Biden second choice appears to be about 45% Klobuchar and 13% Buttigieg.
Warren second choice 46% Sanders 25% Klobuchar
Buttigieg second choice 30% Klobuchar 22% Warren
Klobuchar second choice 41% Biden Warren 26% Warren But Buttigieg picks up 23%.

As you can see between the first and second rounds Warren is likely to benefit the least and Klobuchar the most.
This will make for an interesting night.