What excuses will Pollsters give when they turn out to be wrong about Iowa?

[bluewater]

lol

The polls for Iowa, and the primary in general, have been all over the place.

Yeah, we are told to just average them out to get a better picture of the polling landscape, but averaging in erroneous polls does impact the aggregate polling average. But that was the best we could do before actual voting started.

Now though, we can soon see which pollsters were most accurate in predicting Iowa

.

Should we continue to blindly accept polling predictions going forward from pollsters that end up being off by a lot?

[The Velveteen Ocelot]

1. Caucuses are a lot more unpredictable than regular elections

because people can change their selection in the middle of the process. They are also more likely to succumb to peer pressure. I don't know how any poll could predict the outcome of the Iowa caucuses.

[bearsfootball516]

4. Yep. It's hard enough to accurately predict who someone's first choice will be.

But once realignment happens, all bets are off. If nailing someone’s first choice is already tough, getting their second or third choice is brutally difficult.

[bluewater]

9. Very true.

And yet people, and the media, have been going on and on about the Iowa polls for months now.

[Wellstone ruled]

10. Can become very interesting to say the least.

In 2016 several Precincts Caucused at the same Junior High. Example,our Precinct Room had two factions,Sanders and Clinton. When Registration as well as preferences were tallied,it was about a 50/50 room. When final delegate groupings were done,Hillary was about 75% were as Sanders ended with not quite 25% do to a single hold out. Which happens. BTW,that hold out later became a Bernie Delegate at the State Convention and later voted for Stein. Go figure.

[JustAnotherGen]

2. I'm not following Polls this year

My assumption going into the GE - we are losing.

And I intend to 'activist' in that manner.

Know why? As long as it is not Tulsi Gabbard (It won't be) I'm voting for our Candidate.

[getagrip_already]

3. none of course....

They rarely look back. Not even nate will admit to failings.

But iowa in particular can't be accurately polled. It isn't a democratic process.

Even if you reach a person in a demo bucket you want who is willing, registered, and intends to vote, they may not be able to. And that is if you can reach the people at all since most stop talking to pollsters early on.

Why? Because you have to physically appear at a caucus location and spend hours there. Not everybody can do that, especially in rural locations in bad weather.

Then, assuming you get there, you may see your employer in another camp telling you to come over. Or you see customers who give you the stink eye for not joining them. Or a wife wants to stand somewhere the husband demands she doesn't.

People can't easily vote, and they can't always vote the way they intended going in.

So how do you poll that?

[former9thward]

11. Well the weather is fine in Iowa today.

So no one can use that excuse.

[brooklynite]

5. What makes you think they're wrong?

Almost all recent polls have said the top 3/4 candidates are close. Unless you imagine that one candidate is going to break out of the pack, I'd say the polls are on the mark.

[bluewater]

6. The polls have significant diferences

While "most" of the polls show the race to be "close" many do so in different manners.

For example, some have Warren polling at 14% and coming in 4th, others have her at 24% and almost tied for the lead.

Once actual results come in, it will be fun to look at specific pollsters and analyze their performances.

[Blue_Adept]

7. As of two weeks ago, nearly 50% were undecided

So the polling was just on the other 50% or less.

People around these parts make way too much of polling to begin with. And combine that with a lack of understanding of caucuses, even after all these years, and the misreads are huge.

[Zolorp]

8. Caucuses are notoriously unpredictable

The requirements make the electorate extremely small and the process allows bullying to dramatically affect the outcome.