Iowa Shock Poll-Mayor Pete Grabs The Lead

[DemocratSinceBirth]

https://www.focusonruralamerica.com/2020/02/03/caucus-day-poll-release/

[bluewater]

1. margin of Error +/- 5.7%

[IndyOp]

16. What's a margin of error?

I teach statistics. I give my students many opportunities to practice interpreting data taking the MOE or a 95% confidence interval into consideration. Still, at the end of the semester...

[Squinch]

2. Nice showing from Klobuchar

[Mike 03]

3. Tonight will be fascinating. nt

[Amishman]

20. Yup, some odd polls in the past 24 hours and the caucus format is a wildcard too

A Iowa poll of just Biden vs Bernie had Biden at +6

Klobuchar faded in the four polls released yesterday, at 11, 9, 8, and 6 percent across them. Reaching viability in the caucus process will be a big problem if that pans out.

[brooklynite]

4. All this tells us is thAt the race is close.

[bluewater]

8. Since the Margin of error is +/- 5.7%

For this poll to be "wrong" about the eventual winner:

Klobuchar would have to win by 3.4%

or Biden or Warren to win by 6.4%

or Sanders to win by 9.4 %

Roughly. Slightly less since it's a multicandidate contest, but I don't have the will power to crank thru the exact math for a poll with a 5.7% MoE.

I am not sure how useful a poll with a +/- 5.7% margin of error is worth on the day of the election.

I am not sure I should have even commented on it.

[LeftTurn3623]

5. Please let this happen!

Only thing I like to change is Warren pulling ahead of Biden also.

I just worry where Amy votes will go since by that poll she wouldn't qualify.

If Biden supporters would wake up and see if you want a Moderate candidate that you should Mayor Pete. There is excitement in his camp unlike Biden's. All reports are Biden's rally is dull and boring and people arent showing up.

watching MSNBC over the weekend and they had a republican strategist on and he even said that Pete is the best of all worlds.

He is new face to the scene so he doesn't have the baggage. People like outsiders.

He creates the excitement that Bernie & Warren do for change

and he is a more moderate candidate that appeals to independents & moderate republicans

[Skya Rhen]

6. You should worry where Amy's votes will go - most likely to Joe, which will put him ahead of Pete.

[LeftTurn3623]

9. I guess if you want Joe you just hope people want him as a second choice

but its pretty telling that Iowa doesn't think Joe is up to the task. When this started he was the clear front runner and his lack of energy could cost him the state.

and you have no idea where Amy's votes will go. Even if a higher percent go to Joe but some go to Pete, Warren, & Sanders he still wont make up enough ground.

[Skya Rhen]

14. Every single state, except Iowa, knows Pete isn't up to the task - fact. Every poll proves what I'm

saying. I bet Joe would give anything to be in Pete's unelectable position - not... lol...

Check out the delegate forecast where Pete has 265 and Biden has 1681. Give me a break.


https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2020-primary-forecast/

[bluewater]

15. "Every single state, except Iowa, knows Pete isn't up to the task"

Please, no need to disparage Buttigieg like that.

All the polls prove is who the voters prefer.

Claiming Buttigieg "isn't up to the task" comes across as pedantic and unfair.

[Skya Rhen]

18. I'm having a discussion with someone whose premise was based on relying on polling info and who

used the wording "not up to the task", when referring to Biden. Take the "pedantic and unfair" choice of words up with the original poster of said phrase.

Bye.

[bluewater]

19. Two wrongs don't make a right.

You chose to use that language yourself and you did so in the title of your post.

[TexasTowelie]

21. Yet you don't have any issue disparaging Biden.

[bluewater]

22. I am reformed.

lol

I have been very nice to Joe these last few weeks. I have been trying to limit my discussion of candidates to polling trends and not be disparaging like someone here saying Buttigieg "isn't up to the task".

As actual voting starts, its time to heal the party and come together as Democrats against tRump.

[LeftTurn3623]

17. thats because those states havent seen Pete yet

Iowa is where they are spending their time and Pete's numbers went up the more they got to know him and Bidens have gone down

[BootinUp]

7. :)

[Thekaspervote]

10. Good for him!!

[Maven]

11. I don't know what to make of any of these polls anymore. nt

[tritsofme]

12. Even if conducted under ideal conditions, 1 out of 20 polls will be complete bupkis.

We’ll find out tomorrow!

[DeterDeter]

13. I don't find it to be a shock poll

I expect that any of Sanders, Warren, Biden, and Buttigieg could be scrambled in various positions among the top. I fully expect Pete to have a strong finish, especially with all of the talk from his campaign about a strong ground game, though I think that Sanders is likely to win. I would find it surprising if Klobuchar finished above any one of them, but not even that would be shocking even though I don't think it's likely.

[Indykatie]

23. What's Shocking is a Poll with a +/- Margin of Error of 5.7% is Getting Attention

A poll with almost a 6 point MOE is laughable in a contest as close as what we have in IA. The MOE on this poll covers an 11 point spread. This poll does give Pete's campaign a great talking point on Caucus day.